Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: LI

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A3bi	162	147	130	119	111	103	97	91	86	81	75	70	65	62	58	54	51	48	45	42
SOx	1A3bi	13	13	12	11	7	6	6	6	7	7	4	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3bii	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	16	15	14	12	5	4	5	4	5	5	3	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A4ai	25	21	21	23	21	21	19	22	23	21	19	18	20	21	21	20	21	13	17	19
SOx	1A4bi	9	8	8	8	8	7	7	8	8	7	7	6	7	8	7	7	8	5	6	7
SOx	1A4cii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
NH3	4B6	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	6	5	4	5	5	5	6	6	6
NH3	4B8	25	29	24	24	21	20	18	20	17	19	16	19	15	15	6	13	13	13	13	14

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
PM2.5	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4
PM10	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
PM10	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4
TSP	1A3bii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A4bi	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A4ai	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	6Cb	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	12	12	12	13	13	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13