Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A3bi	528418	565663	613214	620739	591918	582524	555287	514661	466809	423069	360233	328411	303732	283183	262657	248855	240408	230585	210486	195402	183009
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	2013842	2084352	2112023	2017819	1919910	1892818	1815812	1741492	1617000	1524324	1420736	1395191	1341079	1319476	1279871	1212176	1158391	1127391	1056655	973498	963497
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2013842	2084352	2112023	2017819	1919910	1892818	1815812	1741492	1617000	1524324	1420736	1395191	1341079	1319476	1279871	1212176	1158391	1127391	1056655	973498	963497
NOx	NECDTOTAL	2013842	2084352	2112023	2017819	1919910	1892818	1815812	1741492	1617000	1524324	1420736	1395191	1341079	1319476	1279871	1212176	1158391	1127391	1056655	973498	963497
NOx	SNAPTOTAL	2013842	2084352	2112023	2017819	1919910	1892818	1815812	1741492	1617000	1524324	1420736	1395191	1341079	1319476	1279871	1212176	1158391	1127391	1056655	973498	963497
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	2018111	2088494	2116259	2022065	1923774	1896915	1820401	1746504	1622455	1530677	1427100	1400820	1347075	1325377	1285223	1217669	1164018	1133472	1062336	978876	969231
NMVOC	1A3dii	95877	97168	96521	97366	99798	109847	112807	110424	109370	106092	104013	102325	98326	96936	90921	89002	86772	84353	77944	71585	58700
NMVOC	3A1	153577	154979	154164	150015	149489	147473	144769	145205	136394	137620	136555	145194	144896	144821	147295	144890	148635	147356	141997	133956	104015
NMVOC	3A2	117217	111163	108157	103592	103683	105125	99146	97821	92193	90350	89512	84407	81478	76826	74003	70702	68902	64482	57790	52673	46349
NMVOC	3C	77209	86642	98235	97116	99941	88252	89655	87445	89447	90723	103644	89725	85426	79753	80061	72698	78082	79348	75011	73453	77191
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	2014619	2083064	2144179	2162030	2122691	2085074	2032361	1979446	1862665	1774618	1607365	1528876	1468827	1398834	1347524	1316604	1285714	1260795	1193615	1131189	1080291
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	2014619	2083064	2144179	2162030	2122691	2085074	2032361	1979446	1862665	1774618	1607365	1528876	1468827	1398834	1347524	1316604	1285714	1260795	1193615	1131189	1080291
NMVOC	NECDTOTAL	2014619	2083064	2144179	2162030	2122691	2085074	2032361	1979446	1862665	1774618	1607365	1528876	1468827	1398834	1347524	1316604	1285714	1260795	1193615	1131189	1080291
NMVOC	SNAPTOTAL	2014619	2083064	2144179	2162030	2122691	2085074	2032361	1979446	1862665	1774618	1607365	1528876	1468827	1398834	1347524	1316604	1285714	1260795	1193615	1131189	1080291
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	2023514	2085609	2148033	2172223	2126714	2086676	2033826	1984833	1868880	1777805	1611965	1531537	1469976	1401918	1348800	1317744	1286356	1272218	1195662	1133832	1081658
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24848
NH3	4B1a	138752	122156	111409	109330	103182	106016	105399	104651	105894	105700	102041	102014	93230	92749	89109	89287	88287	89131	88740	91053	84641
NH3	4B1b	119436	132944	127390	123870	121631	117445	114476	113800	109907	110710	109955	103275	100810	100351	96736	94979	90293	95841	93662	91706	88065
NH3	4B9b	15371	15113	15163	15272	15900	15962	15994	16010	15883	15743	14861	16794	16413	15954	15181	14945	13659	15273	16245	16613	16719
CO	1A2fi	305844	297680	295719	379214	376281	410981	370227	380875	364559	344834	312490	309247	285002	294515	286926	326151	322755	267143	282582	154944	233030
CO	1A3dii	178194	180888	179537	180842	185103	203171	209094	204976	208814	209094	209626	209839	205086	206461	197448	198002	198150	198268	189357	180217	152899
CO	6Ce	159010	308553	241820	262778	245918	269129	226908	276296	245207	300244	249148	271033	262904	268658	338708	295635	281251	269265	280488	283807	259517
CO	GRIDTOTAL	7092796	7373289	7510454	7567442	7293491	7043469	6702523	6377549	5855793	5453566	4802287	4549778	4227116	3997787	3801479	3446223	3234462	3098000	2963642	2725302	2710995
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	7092796	7373289	7510454	7567442	7293491	7043469	6702523	6377549	5855793	5453566	4802287	4549778	4227116	3997787	3801479	3446223	3234462	3098000	2963642	2725302	2710995
CO	NECDTOTAL	7092796	7373289	7510454	7567442	7293491	7043469	6702523	6377549	5855793	5453566	4802287	4549778	4227116	3997787	3801479	3446223	3234462	3098000	2963642	2725302	2710995
CO	SNAPTOTAL	7092796	7373289	7510454	7567442	7293491	7043469	6702523	6377549	5855793	5453566	4802287	4549778	4227116	3997787	3801479	3446223	3234462	3098000	2963642	2725302	2710995
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	7325374	7443748	7615206	7834746	7403705	7092311	6748853	6524822	6025064	5546324	4934882	4635859	4274394	4098887	3860112	3505166	3280644	3409824	3035074	2810807	2764111

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232
Cd	1A3bi	162369	168338	179066	184646	185742	188817	189574	189144	200300	204036	202609	204088	211919	213735	217804	218790	221208	219382	208350	202131	189542
Cd	1A4ai	774344	741042	715245	727398	708641	745918	787395	828844	924338	1130089	1264141	1495762	1487182	1686722	2110166	2205699	2140486	2874812	2846969	2956670	3318027
Cd	1B1b	317800	302857	270647	246450	264647	259250	248100	260950	259600	249500	225200	241450	203250	191350	203100	228700	234400	236350	224250	137750	205500
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186
Hg	1A1a	981103	953730	960852	911118	936701	1017354	973351	932865	1010046	955969	976123	977281	1029957	1017845	970862	915710	917305	880177	815286	699360	656668
Hg	1A4ai	413655	430241	429209	473131	483116	520512	560618	580220	626676	714240	845408	1032152	1017110	1212181	1667944	1750159	1757597	2522331	2516687	2585192	2923830
Hg	2B5a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	327437	210223	144151	131083
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161
DIOX	6Ce	24629	40764	34577	36322	34253	36084	32365	36505	34394	40044	34354	36293	35251	35300	43988	39405	37769	36286	37550	37916	35216
HCB	1A2fi	4852512	4788480	4371957	4547593	4390491	4829126	4309307	4473198	4282962	4053658	3636070	3607234	3304913	3415108	3296106	3903789	3848550	4187626	4068451	2295345	3340234
HCB	6Cb	10382999	10626964	10875501	11120606	11367783	11611092	11857535	11533337	13628677	10596326	9062424	10801737	11316608	11274592	10802528	7814964	13004692	13042235	12014723	12016094	10448620