Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A3bi530323567671615009622763594139584866552665511910480619426349366707336437312006295784278445251017245252236920216584203411
NOxGRIDTOTAL2015233208566721136142019599192186218949741813091173938116299111528809143115614051331349241133012812941431214903116342811316701060990981058
NOxNATIONALTOTAL2015233208566721136142019599192186218949741813091173938116299111528809143115614051331349241133012812941431214903116342811316701060990981058
NOxNECDTOTAL2015233208566721136142019599192186218949741813091173938116299111528809143115614051331349241133012812941431214903116342811316701060990981058
NOxSNAPTOTAL2015233208566721136142019599192186218949741813091173938116299111528809143115614051331349241133012812941431214903116342811316701060990981058
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL2021118209030321185832025704192649718994181818012174542316365501535818143845314113751355580133674512999181220821116939311399261067181987043
NMVOCGRIDTOTAL20213952090079215166221700432131203209407920329231981360188456317834751620132153637714648071398751134946312730541244716121903511607311106628
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL20213952090079215166221700432131203209407920329231981360188456317834751620132153637714648071398751134946312730541244716121903511607311106628
NMVOCNECDTOTAL20213952090079215166221700432131203209407920329231981360188456317834751620132153637714648071398751134946312730541244716121903511607311106628
NMVOCSNAPTOTAL20213952090079215166221700432131203209407920329231981360188456317834751620132153637714648071398751134946312730541244716121903511607311106628
NMVOCUNFCCCTOTAL20302892092624215551621802362135226209568020343891986747189077817866621624732153903714659571401836135073912741931245358123045911627771109271
SOx1B2aiv6739866262602967172858723458204550044100490253209025140359553624531097287153217926548317432585024252
NH34B1a1387521221561114091093301031821060161053991046511058941057001020411020149323092749891098928788287891318874091053
NH34B1b119552133065127497123965121715117518114538113854109950110745109981103291100818100351967369497990293958419366289592
NH34B9b1537115113151631527215900159621599416010158831574314861167941641315954151811494513659152731624516613
NH34D1a7344580906846309505889770796267149182539767208053378598804328297383275854987710580627802447244755931
CO1A2fi305844297680295719379214376281410981370227380875364559344834312490309247285002294515286926326151322747267135282591154958
CO6Ce159010308553241820262778245918269129226908276296245207300244249148271033262904268658338708295635281270269274280506283833
COGRIDTOTAL71314627413336755526076167837347350709564467046586371527595164654942934856675456281041728973952985375914033640313152704300348128645172616654
CONATIONALTOTAL71314627413336755526076167837347350709564467046586371527595164654942934856675456281041728973952985375914033640313152704300348128645172616654
CONECDTOTAL71314627413336755526076167837347350709564467046586371527595164654942934856675456281041728973952985375914033640313152704300348128645172616654
COSNAPTOTAL71314627413336755526076167837347350709564467046586371527595164654942934856675456281041728973952985375914033640313152704300348128645172616654
COUNFCCCTOTAL71913987430963758172076855757375086710730067155266408630599437255169354889510458342941836613977617377259633774983162743308302928814212637337

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb2C16108958359545580588090836129246061646570656594355741886060934503617608875826990564081469654858376650817667460288709663057103589878351328787819377718915553359212
Cd1A3bi162546168553179035184615185710188889189476188773200680203951201961203820211450214260217984218718221156219226207826201165
Cd1A4ai80265776996774488175585373864777469581193284614494213311300961264152149747414440511691086211207422071322140302218422422243332152060
Cd1B1b317800302857270647246450264647259250248100260950259600249500225200241450203250191350203100228700234400236350224250137750
Cd2C1131981412892811273341132710413356571422607124406010212981029372978926106589010776651083591110553611653211178670128730412901721258565847937
Hg1A1a9811039537309608529111189367011017354973351932865101004695596997612397728110299571017845970862915710917305880177827831710432
Hg1A2fi41929834345732424919640378883891579395387538784233987036364684732013183370656334989933096763198745324152233546343315567330061831078562357021
Hg1A4ai44196845916745884550158651312254928958515659752064447271424784541910339019749311216181166938517511181756664183170118959161828387
Hg2B5a281588724214512123100172846616920961651873140599713292031067639990586943264821240652600429300562200483400455200337540221600137960
Hg2C122999342229701220219322951042304515245458121464902277805232426121721002417373250149125698502589382271772926876012998658302646029801192119423

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX1A2fi11729211471710725611158811205312112611004711729611643011152911065110839810302810387110286911625311569612170111478063979
DIOX2C16720365120643196703067293716776268066510679216340770659732217531875837795777859087799886518734262305
DIOX6Ce2462940764345773632234253360843236536505343944004434354362933525135300439883940537772362873755237918
HCB1A2fi48525124788480437195745475934390491482912643093074473198428296240536583636070360723433049133415108329610639037893848550418762640684512295345
HCB6Cb10384915106291201087775311122638113698001161338711858810115357581151842710596326906242410801637113223041127459210802529781496513004692130419861304292113042922