Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A3bi	530280	566429	614884	622627	594041	584808	550844	511591	480248	426224	365589	335979	311303	295759	277183	249473	242057	230385	207194
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	2035150	2107105	2132606	2038715	1940100	1911406	1834055	1757488	1645392	1542296	1448029	1419369	1364535	1341971	1306076	1220745	1167060	1131710	1061297
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2035150	2107105	2132606	2038715	1940100	1911406	1834055	1757488	1645392	1542296	1448029	1419369	1364535	1341971	1306076	1220745	1167060	1131710	1061297
NOx	NECDTOTAL	2035150	2107105	2132606	2038715	1940100	1911406	1834055	1757488	1645392	1542296	1448029	1419369	1364535	1341971	1306076	1220745	1167060	1131710	1061297
NOx	SNAPTOTAL	2035150	2107105	2132606	2038715	1940100	1911406	1834055	1757488	1645392	1542296	1448029	1419369	1364535	1341971	1306076	1220745	1167060	1131710	1061297
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	2041035	2111742	2137575	2044820	1944736	1915851	1838977	1763531	1652031	1549306	1455326	1425611	1370874	1348588	1311851	1226663	1173026	1139965	1067489
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850
NH3	4B1a	138752	122156	111409	109330	103182	106016	105399	104651	105894	105700	102041	102014	93230	92749	89109	89287	88287	89131	88740
NH3	4B1b	119552	133065	127497	123965	121715	117518	114538	113854	109950	110745	109981	103291	100818	100351	96736	94979	90293	95841	93662
NH3	4B9b	15371	15113	15163	15272	15900	15962	15994	16010	15883	15743	14861	16794	16413	15954	15181	14945	13659	15273	16245
CO	6Ce	159010	308553	241820	262778	245918	269129	226908	276296	245207	300244	249148	271033	262904	268658	338708	295635	281270	269274	280506
CO	GRIDTOTAL	7176283	7465525	7606216	7672831	7416127	7165917	6773913	6452817	6034836	5591562	4961409	4673464	4268669	4057890	3886009	3482308	3282570	3162567	3032023
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	7176283	7465525	7606216	7672831	7416127	7165917	6773913	6452817	6034836	5591562	4961409	4673464	4268669	4057890	3886009	3482308	3282570	3162567	3032023
CO	NECDTOTAL	7176283	7465525	7606216	7672831	7416127	7165917	6773913	6452817	6034836	5591562	4961409	4673464	4268669	4057890	3886009	3482308	3282570	3162567	3032023
CO	SNAPTOTAL	7176283	7465525	7606216	7672831	7416127	7165917	6773913	6452817	6034836	5591562	4961409	4673464	4268669	4057890	3886009	3482308	3282570	3162567	3032023
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	7236219	7483152	7632676	7741623	7443863	7177572	6784781	6489920	6077561	5614204	4994244	4694083	4279432	4082522	3899465	3495775	3292609	3242116	3048926

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Cd	1A4ai	804395	771978	747100	757929	741156	777196	814351	848915	944981	1133363	1266897	1500328	1446473	1693709	2113877	2208828	2142182	2186630	2226852
Cd	1A4bi	916112	855062	822506	687622	654799	665455	635996	675030	666200	745719	695168	719239	623116	647082	722045	673794	709590	833217	863930
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258546
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	10319513	10990952	10445557	10023445	9691929	9685366	9401882	9462456	8940609	8835803	9159655	9037860	7344625	7597350	8233689	8518769	8701916	8789071	8711891
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	10319513	10990952	10445557	10023445	9691929	9685366	9401882	9462456	8940609	8835803	9159655	9037860	7344625	7597350	8233689	8518769	8701916	8789071	8711891
Cd	SNAPTOTAL	10319513	10990952	10445557	10023445	9691929	9685366	9401882	9462456	8940609	8835803	9159655	9037860	7344625	7597350	8233689	8518769	8701916	8789071	8711891
Hg	1A1a	981103	953730	960852	911118	936701	1017354	973351	932865	1010046	955969	976123	977281	1029957	1017845	970862	915710	917305	880177	827832
Hg	1A2fi	4192983	4345732	4249196	4037888	3891579	3953875	3878423	3987036	3646847	3201318	3370656	3349899	3309676	3198745	3241522	3354634	3315567	3300618	3106179
Hg	1A4ai	443993	461502	461414	503982	516008	552158	587923	600681	647712	717952	848528	1037129	977666	1219139	1671416	1753025	1758775	1834403	1898745
Hg	2B5a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
DIOX	6Ce	24629	40764	34577	36322	34253	36084	32365	36505	34394	40044	34354	36293	35251	35300	43988	39405	37772	36287	37552
HCB	6Cb	10385	10629	10878	11123	11370	11613	11859	11536	11518	10596	9062	10802	11322	11275	10803	7815	13005	13042	13043