Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2007

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2007

PMs:

2000 – 2007

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
NOx1A3b92804096200810134531008532979009959377934453900061857853799579742935746844711347696805669124604266590702576415
NOxEMEPTOTAL200682720642742081926198646219012881868323180571117287911629053152848914340691421761136681613599211319274122907411875701147339
NOxNATIONALTOTAL200682720642742081926198646219012881868323180571117287911629053152848914340691421761136681613599211319274122907411875701147339
NOxSNAPTOTAL200682720642742081926198646219012881868323180571117287911629053152848914340691421761136681613599211319274122907411875701147339
NMVOC5E173366166718168210173862168238166146165821169065169825167089169873167885166368168496166599166570166349176732
SOx1B2797217865373141840517016856838565725587560471423003468045231447553968337991424533541140742
SOx1B2a673986626260296717285872345820455004410049025320902514035955362453109728715321792654831743
SOx1B2aiv673986626260296717285872345820455004410049025320902514035955362453109728715321792654831743
NH34B1a982878679379399781597399676270760697577576927770427462774861686526853765847659786523965863
NH34B1b848139469591020887828745384714828398261980055809098062875988744297434871670703686689771007
CO6C159191308741242010262956246103269296227072276471245384300398249225271124263013268750338792295737281365269390

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Cd1A4a804395771978747100757929741156777196814351848915944981113336312668971500328144186616886612115794220039321470042090588
Cd1A4b916117855068822512687628654805665461636003675036666205745724695172719242627724652132720130682381704768825935
Cd1A4bi916112855062822506687622654799665455635996675030666200745719695168719239627722652130720128682380704767825934
Cd2C13429941311081128941113426641353217144038712625001040068104807299764610848701096415110263111246761184861119824913067241305822
CdEMEPTOTAL102837941093893910391799996861796382059630616934521691243958881727877696491020628979385728471575377668173765845996886434478648196
CdNATIONALTOTAL102837941093893910391799996861796382059630616934521691243958881727877696491020628979385728471575377668173765845996886434478648196
CdSNAPTOTAL102837941093893910391799996861796382059630616934521691243958881727877696491020628979385728471575377668173765845996886434478648196
Hg1A1a9811039537309608529111189367011017354973351932865101004695596997612397728110299571017845970862915710917305880177
Hg1A4a443993461502461414503982516008552158587923600681647712717952848528103712997299412139251666859174803817481831714600
Hg2B281588724214512123100172846616920961651873140599713292031067639990586943264821240652600429300562200483400455200362139
Hg2B5281588724214512123100172846616920961651873140599713292031067639990586943264821240652600429300562200483400455200362139