Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IS

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2fii	1861	1776	1655	1787	1821	2290	2221	2676	2706	2966	3032	2966	2778	2546	3055	3321	3005	3021	2892	1993	1579
NOx	1A3di(i)	2429	924	1470	2387	2287	3523	3032	3630	4302	4015	5338	3652	5081	3514	4802	2702	3340	5015	5502	3965	4385
NMVOC	1A2fii	270	257	240	259	264	332	322	388	392	430	439	430	403	369	443	481	435	438	419	289	229
CO	1A2fii	608	580	540	583	595	748	725	874	884	969	990	969	907	831	998	1084	981	986	944	651	516

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A3di(i)	125	47	76	123	118	182	156	188	223	207	276	188	261	181	248	141	174	263	292	211	233
HCB	2A1	1255	1168	1098	951	889	897	994	1107	1295	1470	1569	1404	932	828	1153	1387	1627	1632	1387	652	368