Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NMVOC	FUTOTAL	84541	85274	83687	80940	78341	75992	79721	77442	78113	70195	64839	63367	60065	58151	56220	55182	54369	52702	50639	48245	45762	44337	43051
NH3	4B1a	26710	26179	25326	25296	25205	25130	25272	25069	24950	24441	24074	24163	23857	23927	23747	20909	21960	22036	22233	22006	21839	22640	22489
CO	GRIDTOTAL	401692	403443	391526	359381	336551	313928	302997	291601	303316	271868	247848	237228	219548	207923	199190	187463	178939	169161	156583	149575	137388	125873	118135
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	401692	403443	391526	359381	336551	313928	302997	291601	303316	271868	247848	237228	219548	207923	199190	187463	178939	169161	156583	149575	137388	125873	118135
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	400508	402290	390472	358398	335520	312886	301844	290433	302058	270520	246413	235795	218214	206586	197834	186165	177479	167524	154955	148178	136146	124580	116859

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	1601389	1670299	1841375	1770524	1842920	1910873	1895594	1913610	2004958	1921839	1902043	1983786	1827153	1598122	1503331	1509416	1294644	1165339	996929	761146	813829	831896	1060322
Pb	1A2fi	374433	476058	315304	344983	270449	305788	331560	352577	346342	338576	481613	555738	565198	645632	743799	796147	762563	771770	709993	477730	429285	385459	404414
Pb	1A3bii	9669227	7149136	6557438	4357830	3422542	3137392	2856797	2647334	1624934	894856	169691	134047	107307	96000	83497	63395	54324	43323	40527	37046	32931	28071	22850
Pb	1A3bvi	572761	588280	637919	636642	664027	689063	822740	873667	1048492	1183495	1334022	1405074	1426958	1457608	1549221	1642026	1735839	1829334	1741290	1584748	1471747	1438627	1387941
Pb	2A7d	469290	469250	469210	469169	469129	469089	469048	469008	467837	468425	468658	486729	489266	3360673	3360578	3162909	2156496	2362922	2362603	197041
Pb	2C1	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451	46864	35257	15552	6861
Cd	1A1a	77594	106669	112244	109899	120574	118853	119793	143037	181567	213297	168069	194902	150914	108490	126389	126964	110103	75499	66706	43713	33242	25825	31849
Cd	2C1	176225	176225	176225	176225	176225	205375	225912	223262	237175	221938	238500	99375
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231
Cd	FUTOTAL	852106	875098	883095	871688	961696	961338	922742	1005884	1033202	1027549	1077603	957426	759466	708420	725716	753374	672363	636268	599079	456319	444571	335607	323377
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	850641	874080	882766	871173	962052	961963	923362	1008347	1037886	1034279	1086671	965847	768218	716211	733231	759828	679061	644553	604645	460244	448749	339885	327235
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	850641	874080	882766	871173	962052	961963	923362	1008347	1037886	1034279	1086671	965847	768218	716211	733231	759828	679061	644553	604645	460244	448749	339885	327235
Hg	1A2e	52747	80516	52391	54204	52828	60364	46855	74467	66136	66820	113233	173865	109706	75257	23626	45448	28177	24018	21812	18862	15363	14351	13865
Hg	1A2fi	155346	198682	122630	129585	115318	134602	110632	166814	148633	150071	257182	303123	328205	421004	494104	526631	516624	529677	483089	269906	198913	180362	213423
Hg	1A3di(i)	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	655650	683964	737320	636017	672492	633881	756414	651839	437077	568131	541541	341725	419123	581964	439430	517339
Hg	FUTOTAL	866291	925754	780300	772779	756835	774903	731266	833823	591088	564763	722800	855289	777204	842552	811066	882841	815601	821542	760271	492799	411993	375955	421656
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	866298	925761	780307	772784	756841	774909	731272	833830	591096	564771	722808	855298	777212	842560	811075	882849	815609	821551	760280	492807	412000	375962	421663
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	866298	925761	780307	772784	756841	774909	731272	833830	591096	564771	722808	855298	777212	842560	811075	882849	815609	821551	760280	492807	412000	375962	421663

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A4ai	759	748	673	660	697	599	639	623	581	598	574	579	569	609	559	608	562	564	623	452	437	425	410
DIOX	6Ce	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	394	201	201	201	201	201	201
DIOX	6D	9908	10015	10156	10284	10393	10502	10465	9699	9244	10955	11692	13308	20806	25259	17689	13387	13552	6908	6888	6901	6898	6903	6916
DIOX	FUTOTAL	26404	26327	25071	25127	25125	25210	25528	24087	21182	21762	22699	23674	30339	34716	26613	23026	22887	15957	16159	15784	15523	14880	14936
DIOX	GRIDTOTAL	26359	26285	25051	25100	25112	25205	25526	24120	21242	21864	22827	23790	30443	34817	26710	23121	22981	16064	16260	15828	15590	14954	14997
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	26359	26285	25051	25100	25112	25205	25526	24120	21242	21864	22827	23790	30443	34817	26710	23121	22981	16064	16260	15828	15590	14954	14997
HCB	4G	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032	1163272	1161343	1160562	1168675
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032	1163272	1161343	1160562	1168675