Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A1a	46374	46188	53065	46944	45100	41391	41867	40202	39394	38779	39731	41156	37630	33820	32342	32396	29885	27347	22040	13340	10950
NOx	1A3dii	1105	1065	1188	1188	1350	1186	1358	1398	1526	1693	1983	1989	2117	2285	2978	2768	3307	2611	2706	2661	940
NOx	FUTOTAL	126115	126758	133820	124350	121007	122327	126591	123145	123951	120944	121855	125354	116461	117322	119224	120768	116180	112071	105116	83719	72632
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	120789	122654	131588	121882	120373	122329	126683	126777	131396	131307	134939	137147	127968	127020	127763	127256	122659	120155	109795	87434	75676
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	120789	122654	131588	121882	120373	122329	126683	126777	131396	131307	134939	137147	127968	127020	127763	127256	122659	120155	109795	87434	75676
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	119988	121871	130878	121209	119670	121632	125910	126003	130561	130420	134001	136212	127113	126170	126833	126393	121748	119071	108728	86506	74833
NMVOC	1B2av	3097	3167	3398	3335	3444	3629	3846	4112	4571	4949	5225	5428	5547	5540	5687	5988	6187	6309	6014	5476	4945
NMVOC	FUTOTAL	97823	97931	96237	92753	89602	85609	89948	87307	86459	74978	67966	65845	61613	59131	56388	54742	53675	51971	49833	47249	44204
SOx	1A1a	103044	104933	96593	87256	95517	91625	81400	95566	106070	102536	79870	76722	61226	44579	44002	42503	36801	30837	25187	15686	9335
SOx	1A2fi	6288	4803	4663	4866	5422	5103	4961	5267	5133	4498	5175	4656	2725	3047	3213	3536	2487	3316	2562	1701	1128
NH3	4B1a	26710	26179	25326	25296	25205	25130	25272	25069	24950	24441	24074	24163	23857	23927	23747	20909	21960	22036	22233	22006	22137
CO	GRIDTOTAL	417712	414628	402287	368838	345196	314268	320449	305385	315160	280302	253282	242547	223375	211861	202100	191835	183261	171613	159477	151856	138984
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	417712	414628	402287	368838	345196	314268	320449	305385	315160	280302	253282	242547	223375	211861	202100	191835	183261	171613	159477	151856	138984
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	416528	413475	401233	367855	344166	313226	319297	304217	313901	278954	251848	241113	222041	210523	200744	190537	181801	169976	157849	150459	137741

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	1601389	1670299	1841375	1770524	1842920	1910873	1895594	1913610	2004958	1921839	1902043	1983786	1827153	1598122	1503331	1509416	1294644	1165339	996929	761146	813829
Pb	1A2fi	369255	470074	309788	338787	264742	299930	325626	346504	339883	321226	474694	549467	559184	639904	739362	775591	728835	793607	701479	452345	414292
Pb	1A3bii	9419788	6428546	5877040	3892503	3048051	3083256	1340628	2438627	1596412	757621	142961	103737	88731	75809	68514	54314	40558	31882	28405	25369	21718
Pb	1A3bvi	595172	664355	720556	720140	750846	680569	809199	861485	1031570	1163550	1310078	1378640	1399767	1430235	1517234	1611059	1705161	1794533	1710796	1556631	1447110
Pb	2A7d	469290	469250	469210	469169	469129	469089	469048	469008	467837	468425	468658	486729	489266	3360673	3360578	3162909	2156496	2362922	2362603	197041
Pb	2C1	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451	46864	35257
Cd	1A3	31119	31037	32841	33010	35018	33468	36763	36782	39627	41603	44444	44498	43817	45067	48804	52217	46028	46971	47252	44175	39825
Cd	1A3bi	9237	9854	10979	11236	11841	12029	13178	13581	15601	16886	17964	18688	18974	19186	20065	21116	22092	23164	22730	21380	20269
Cd	2C1	176225	176225	176225	176225	176225	205375	225912	223262	237175	221938	238500	99375
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598
Cd	FUTOTAL	839959	861486	869072	855648	946010	945053	905431	988560	1013983	1001967	1053446	933126	736283	685478	699699	710287	626569	615740	563203	417377	411096
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	840031	861941	870021	856206	947506	946865	907380	992355	1020036	1010145	1064046	943031	746394	694743	708538	718418	635016	625752	570499	422765	416555
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	840031	861941	870021	856206	947506	946865	907380	992355	1020036	1010145	1064046	943031	746394	694743	708538	718418	635016	625752	570499	422765	416555
Hg	1A2fi	155346	198701	122649	129604	115337	134621	110651	166833	148653	141656	257201	303143	328225	421498	496755	508598	480575	567044	481571	244620	206267
Hg	1A3	3854196	3854196	3854196	3854196	3854196	3854196	3854196	3417883	3693908	3551225	3455276	3526421	3241486	3247481	3435935	3241181	3218651	3076546	3001300	2731997	2339102
Hg	1A3di(i)	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	655650	683964	737320	636017	672492	633881	756414	651839	437077	568131	541541	341725	419123	581964
Hg	FUTOTAL	866145	925621	780154	772633	756682	774744	731078	833624	590848	556061	722500	854975	776882	843822	807505	850326	787676	867221	766713	485868	423718
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	866167	925642	780173	772650	756700	774762	731098	833644	590870	556084	722525	854999	776905	843845	807528	850352	787702	867249	766740	485890	423738
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	866167	925642	780173	772650	756700	774762	731098	833644	590870	556084	722525	854999	776905	843845	807528	850352	787702	867249	766740	485890	423738

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A3	653	661	685	693	716	725	776	789	846	884	931	969	985	999	1053	1089	1077	1070	1045	1006	865
DIOX	1A3bi	418	438	479	485	508	539	583	625	699	762	820	857	873	876	900	941	967	981	952	874	802
DIOX	6Ce	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	394	201	201	201	201
DIOX	FUTOTAL	26407	26335	25078	25132	25130	25209	25528	24087	21182	21763	22699	23675	30340	34707	26610	22965	22847	16023	16180	15738	15508
DIOX	GRIDTOTAL	26362	26292	25057	25105	25117	25206	25530	24122	21244	21867	22830	23795	30449	34813	26711	23066	22943	16129	16283	15784	15577
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	26362	26292	25057	25105	25117	25206	25530	24122	21244	21867	22830	23795	30449	34813	26711	23066	22943	16129	16283	15784	15577
HCB	4G	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032	1163272	1161343
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032	1163272	1161343