Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A1a4637446188530654694445100413914186740202393943877939731411563763033820323423239629885272952198513262
NOxFUTOTAL12922813160513796412823912631312949312837712785112730012496912508112697011943111627611501011658211336911304810620988794
NOxGRIDTOTAL12562512748113625612599412481512679213112613126913618213649213795913984713033412618512575012705212242512116811232790275
NOxNATIONALTOTAL12562512748113625612599412481512679213112613126913618213649213795913984713033412618512575012705212242512116811232790275
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL12278712471613380712383212254812447312853012865813341513350313476513669112741712318812274212376511898811748210882087340
NMVOC1B2av31013175340633423450363338504116457549535229543255515544569159836193630962695721
NMVOC3A235833686376739434120429743784411462247164662471948925106512750684996488245784193
COGRIDTOTAL419594417257404809370910347474316318322981307995318085283478255724244950225694213997203911193757184556173748165416158311
CONATIONALTOTAL419594417257404809370910347474316318322981307995318085283478255724244950225694213997203911193757184556173748165416158311
COUNFCCCTOTAL416441414182402082368493344946313730320086305081314991280138252150241407222416210633200533190070180702169613161477155015

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A1a1601389167029918413751770524184292019108731895594191361020049581921839190204319837861827153159812215147061498228133685211232281043735829433
Pb1A2fi369255470074309788338787264742299930325626346504339883321226474694549467559184639904739362775591728835785336698624449726
Pb1A3bii9395417642921658776553892909304838830835751340797243890115966737578441430641038128879275862685615426740593319812958426457
Pb1A3bvi604576667576728211724413758333684385823669877850105721711957861302707136819414001671429076150956216099091705195179594217890731652933
Pb2C114304891430489143048914304891430489166711118338221812311192524418015561936000806667        
Pb2C217121441712144171214417121441712144171214417121441712144171214418273218273215682712857885918879783119335056243652345146864
Cd1A2b11982311781214151214456818519917303716277317846117705818970820182117847917512317649819000518101812995311680911102269725
Cd1A2fi8358265989607865990776917781645963888022842158394312345412627213094614864817104018659516946719567716683092739
Cd2C117622517622517622517622517622520537522591222326223717522193823850099375        
CdFUTOTAL839334861691869151855836946841946585904710989338101417810025331053657932562736667685318698404704422618760608075558011422271
CdGRIDTOTAL840222862161870369856500947873947132907980993019102099410113321064134943075746411694706708611715176628995618162566487425874
CdNATIONALTOTAL840222862161870369856500947873947132907980993019102099410113321064134943075746411694706708611715176628995618162566487425874
Hg1A2fi155346198701122649129604115337134621110651166833148653141656257201303142328225421498496755508598480575563940479665243656
Hg1A3di(i)697053697053697053697053697053697053697053655650683964737320636017672492633881756414651839437077568131541541341725419123
HgFUTOTAL866427925909780457772954757010775097731501834078591384556703723146855674777229843739807517848487774436849933753153488168
HgGRIDTOTAL866449925931780476772971757028775115731521834098591405556726723170855698777252843762807540848512774463849962753180488190
HgNATIONALTOTAL866449925931780476772971757028775115731521834098591405556726723170855698777252843762807540848512774463849962753180488190

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOXFUTOTAL2632526262249972505225034251292544724006211012165322606225913026234628264932288222790159881610415740
DIOXGRIDTOTAL2628326220249772502625020251222545324041211652175922737227133037034734265972299022890160971621515782
DIOXNATIONALTOTAL2628326220249772502625020251222545324041211652175922737227133037034734265972299022890160971621515782
HCB4G186343223768256556284705308217327091341327350925355886200365475738722991698071266654169382112337511150683115068311506831150683
HCBGRIDTOTAL40248789402830124031259740337545403578544037352640384487385207376680220520495399918611881261291289171907412556791169454116656811630321163272
HCBNATIONALTOTAL40248789402830124031259740337545403578544037352640384487385207376680220520495399918611881261291289171907412556791169454116656811630321163272