Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A1a	46374	46188	53065	46944	45100	41391	41867	40202	39394	38779	39731	41156	37630	33820	32342	32396	29885	27295	21985
NOx	1A4cii	9323	9682	9816	9861	11206	12865	10354	10713	10623	11206	11609	11744	11789	11834	11340	12169	11656	10939	10889
NMVOC	1A4cii	1378	1431	1451	1458	1657	1902	1531	1584	1570	1657	1716	1736	1743	1749	1676	1799	1723	1617	1610
CO	GRIDTOTAL	418021	415479	403246	369384	345704	317478	324755	308280	318166	283041	255276	244494	225434	213543	200532	190486	180998	170864	162284
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	418021	415479	403246	369384	345704	317478	324755	308280	318166	283041	255276	244494	225434	213543	200532	190486	180998	170864	162284
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	418021	415479	403246	369384	345704	317478	324755	308280	318166	283041	255276	244494	225434	213543	200532	190486	180998	170864	162284

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A1a	1601389	1670299	1841375	1770524	1842920	1910873	1895594	1913610	2004958	1921839	1902043	1983786	1827153	1598122	1514706	1498228	1336852	1123228	1043735
Pb	1A2fi	369255	470074	309788	338787	264742	299930	325626	346504	339883	332323	474694	549467	557870	575355	674098	703436	654059	726911	642703
Pb	1A3bii	9326599	6344183	5801561	3828755	2980404	2995980	1261640	2311706	1390664	646298	137080	97131	82529	72104	65389	52562	39931	31769	29508
Pb	1A3bvi	602828	666936	727249	723263	757257	682533	821352	875178	1054680	1191938	1298963	1364422	1397064	1425697	1506041	1607749	1703313	1795246	1790073
Pb	2C1	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451
Cd	2C1	176225	176225	176225	176225	176225	205375	225912	223262	237175	221938	238500	99375
Cd	FUTOTAL	839337	861699	869158	855840	946845	946585	904710	989338	1014177	1008145	1053660	932566	736669	684112	697202	709055	622577	611987	562718
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	838004	860006	868468	854832	946115	945336	905959	990992	1018852	1014627	1061668	940656	744180	691199	701645	717285	630172	619246	568524
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	838004	860006	868468	854832	946115	945336	905959	990992	1018852	1014627	1061668	940656	744180	691199	701645	717285	630172	619246	568524
Hg	1A3di(i)	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	655650	683964	737320	636017	672492	633881	756414	651839	437077	568131	541541	341725
Hg	FUTOTAL	866427	925909	780457	772954	757010	775097	731501	834078	591384	565137	723146	855674	777230	812617	776497	815882	740794	819062	726341
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	866427	925909	780457	772954	757010	775097	731501	834078	591384	565137	723146	855674	777230	812617	776497	815882	740794	819062	726341
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	866427	925909	780457	772954	757010	775097	731501	834078	591384	565137	723146	855674	777230	812617	776497	815882	740794	819062	726341

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
DIOX	2A1	1871	1646	1561	1517	1826	1862	2211	2520	1545	1487	1258	1185	1193	1029	891	920	914	910	1024
DIOX	FUTOTAL	26412	26346	25089	25144	25144	25225	25538	24100	21195	21780	22714	22677	30339	34535	26404	22784	22610	15822	15960
DIOX	GRIDTOTAL	26371	26304	25069	25118	25129	25218	25543	24134	21259	21885	22844	22799	30447	34642	26508	22892	22711	15932	16071
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	26371	26304	25069	25118	25129	25218	25543	24134	21259	21885	22844	22799	30447	34642	26508	22892	22711	15932	16071
HCB	4G	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032