Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	1A4c	9368	9729	9864	9909	11260	12927	10404	10765	10675	11260	11666	11801	11846	11891	11395	12228	11712	10992
NOx	1A4cii	9323	9682	9816	9861	11206	12865	10354	10713	10623	11206	11609	11744	11789	11834	11340	12169	11656	10939
NMVOC	1A3biii	1333	1130	1194	1186	1228	1338	1368	1342	1406	1375	1275	2974	1000	1326	977	871	801	704
NMVOC	1A4c	1387	1441	1461	1467	1667	1914	1541	1594	1581	1667	1727	1747	1754	1761	1687	1811	1734	1628
NMVOC	1A4cii	1378	1431	1451	1458	1657	1902	1531	1584	1570	1657	1716	1736	1743	1749	1676	1799	1723	1617
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	417829	415202	403129	368818	345180	317086	324193	307916	317742	282341	254374	244213	225093	213213	203024	191817	182138	170715

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1a	1601000	1670000	1841000	1771000	1843000	1911000	1896000	1914000	2005000	1922000	1902000	1984000	1827000	1598000	1515000	1498000	1337000	1117000
Pb	1A2	797000	821000	640000	683000	652000	683000	689000	755000	735000	744000	967000	1036000	965000	976000	1038000	1117000	980000	1041000
Pb	1A2f	374000	475000	314000	342000	270000	306000	328000	354000	346000	339000	486000	563000	573000	595000	697000	762000	685000	758000
Pb	1A3bii	9376000	6368000	5821000	3846000	2994000	3008000	1266000	2320000	1397000	868000	342000	97000	83000	72000	65000	53000	40000	32000
Pb	2A	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	487000	489000	464000	445000	110000	44000	3000
Pb	2A7	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	469000	487000	489000	464000	445000	110000	44000	3000
Pb	2C	3151000	3151000	3151000	3151000	3151000	3387000	3554000	3532000	3645000	1992000	2127000	971000	130000	91000	106000	41000	36000	28000
Cd	2C	209000	209000	209000	209000	209000	238000	258000	256000	270000	225000	241000	102000	2000	2000	3000	1000	1000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	839000	862000	869000	855000	947000	948000	905000	994000	1020000	1016000	1066000	948000	750000	697000	710000	722000	635000	626000
Hg	1A2	254000	295000	190000	198000	188000	215000	171000	264000	236000	239000	403000	516000	474000	503000	529000	559000	510000	602000
Hg	1A2e	53000	83000	55000	56000	56000	64000	48000	79000	70000	71000	120000	186000	118000	72000	17000	21000	15000	16000
Hg	6C	222000	222000	222000	222000	221000	221000	221000	220000	4000	4000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	6000	8000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	875000	939000	791000	782000	771000	791000	740000	854000	609000	584000	752000	894000	810000	849000	810000	849000	772000	858000