Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	238000	203100	183300	184000	187400	190070	195810	199500	202620	200650	185450	184530	185282	179657	180054	203073	207757	189879
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	205000	149600	141800	149000	142400	150300	150100	145400	140600	169840	172680	166060	156319	155186	157382	177461	176620	148150
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	124000	93000	84000	77000	76000	77000	78000	76000	73530	71090	70810	66300	64851	66767	74090	80120	80977	70594

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
PM2.5	1A4ai			1051	1123	1016	22	22	21
PM2.5	2A1					10	607	999	639
PM10	1A4ai			1771	1892	1711	38	37	36

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1a													785742	773618	619313	467153	1254227	1449286
Pb	1A2b													1500000	1500000	1500000	275000	275000	275000
Pb	1A2fi															3264	5219	2417058	2333400
Pb	1A3bi													843054		930758	930758	1618766	1594902
Pb	1A4bi													4137467	4802104	4300680	4919608	4682718	2069818
Pb	6Cb													2577000	1923000	1600000	3110000	84594
Cd	1A1a													329214	285058	160765	101374	375758	431022
Cd	1A2a													446400	444075	442770	1000088	217844	225571
Cd	1A4bi													248243	288121	258036	295172	554212	247577
Cd	6Cb													51540	38460	32000	62200	8475
Cd	GRIDTOTAL														2863102	2722213	1533724	1743419	1483934
Cd	SNAPTOTAL															2722213	1533724	1743419	1483934
Hg	1A1a													848630	898642	836896	661391	199405	232128
Hg	1A1c													636515	671062	753217		970094	927637
Hg	1A2a													113564	113285	114026	934576	122797	129925
Hg	1A4bi													518396	601871	540945	616042	501205	220909
Hg	2A1													965250	982575	920975	927134	1024142	976800
Hg	6Cb													773100	576900	480000	933000	194971	23264

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	6915948	506000	678000	632000	476000	3705566	660000	678000	712000	700000	4353122	705800	4621567	4518381	4414009	6105470	7101848	6651056