Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2fi	9432	6865	5606	5487	5696	5315	5355	5147	5298	4484	4350	5183	4632	4844	6739	4286	4740	6232	6433	5312	5838
NOx	1A2fii	6898	3594	2006	2235	2519	2257	2340	2882	3009	2611	3382	3479	3407	4520	4710	5615	6302	6803	7565	5772	5179
NOx	1A4bi	3689	2670	2218	2227	2299	2386	2815	2954	2755	2732	2796	2684	2820	3265	3193	3176	3031	2664	2763	2904	3100
NOx	1A4cii	10342	8068	3285	2193	6427	5035	5362	4768	7148	7510	9386	10181	9532	9507	9210	9205	9507	9567	10070	9678	9341
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	95398	68294	61758	61837	65412	66031	69958	70393	75908	77830	74040	74434	76720	77734	77360	81210	82121	86803	84682	75932	70516
NMVOC	1A4bi	10132	6464	5397	5025	5363	5503	6788	6707	6301	5866	6675	5140	5211	6733	6555	6296	6300	5305	5501	5846	6711
NMVOC	1B2av	4387	2417	2076	3032	3142	3613	3802	3878	4057	4531	4360	4235	4252	4202	4207	4087	4029	4211	3865	4032	3702
SOx	1A3	7207	5264	6511	7761	5383	4820	7682	6758	5876	5834	6731	5853	7083	8399	8908	10232	9397	10046	8414	7219	2656
SOx	1A3bi	1083	857	1977	1100	996	1099	1822	2562	1535	1695	2264	2093	2004	2726	3167	3920	3835	4552	2404	3148	955
SOx	1A3bii	907	852	947	1332	797	625	958	911	1030	1088	1366	869	1368	1693	1800	2401	1910	1951	2434	1504	451
SOx	1A3biii	2424	1268	1507	2330	1693	1125	2142	1240	1588	1846	1803	1339	1986	2181	2333	2253	2168	2163	2063	1630	557
SOx	1A4ai	6650	2910	1284	2223	1980	1048	918	1552	1152	1030	1372	1448	1998	1767	1601	1308	1208	949	849	1080	921
CO	1A2fi	34734	28700	25593	26009	26064	24714	24976	27104	59878	48335	21160	21389	20358	21527	22870	21286	21627	18084	17525	18648	22548
CO	1A2fii	2492	13515	9283	9058	9596	13388	15799	17760	14074	12904	12404	12733	12412	15002	16702	12071	12886	13492	14182	12270	9249
CO	1A4bi	193921	122725	101214	94153	100409	102886	126815	125233	117826	109659	124831	95729	97122	125693	122203	117485	117459	98828	102452	108845	125138
CO	1A4bii	5972	11944	2389	11347	11496	11645	13885	9406	11048	18811	18065	15676	12242	12093	10749	12093	12541	12541	13287	12690	12242
CO	1B2aiv	50038	34943	27255	36928	32884	34503	27458	27340	35097	40498	54070	47526	48707	48515	52656	54414	44431	53468	41611	51912	24338
CO	2B5a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24087	20627	30003	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A3bii	17310450	15721885	14308683	9443786	13404354	11069452	9242456	9540633	11049569	9322807	11146615	5649815	4790102	1841754	1844852	862132	1444440	1279157	1069911	893488	710409
Pb	1A3biv	3697259	3914919	3016104	3013198	2892976	4323037	4949477	6463986	5706061	6309776	7514407	7429771	4623695	2280420	2387952	1204166	1987351	1879810	1954014	1820826	1656893
Pb	2A7d	468333	429991	244637	228502	275771	283577	261394	216449	252158	231647	236395	255580	269516	317854	358112	387277	388744	465734	570813	931863	1156894
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265052	192613	164715	117965	118960	181823	268328	199763	184655	150782	88013	112788	223881	179143	209342	198255	361049	141089	268910
Cd	1A1a	123998	129776	141960	136547	293096	377876	302955	213316	250833	240877	114525	45223	45320	49788	51998	47478	41401	37009	28582	28511	29308
Cd	1A3	16306	11572	10968	11716	12726	13504	14482	15665	16592	17457	17390	17847	19098	20610	21222	21979	22554	24083	23592	22930	22242
Cd	1A4ai	72869	30990	10021	10933	12682	5584	5864	12982	6072	6184	6426	11861	18105	16552	14017	13208	10305	8982	8243	13455	12656
Cd	1A4bi	219895	138026	99248	117626	125637	103330	123190	136025	120169	103047	116960	104448	119521	141090	132152	126395	120269	100463	97981	109649	122668
Cd	1B2aiv	80727	56380	43977	59582	53058	55656	44276	44093	56628	65346	87266	76698	78614	78293	84983	87832	71706	86302	67158	83790	39253
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12670	9074	9151	13986	20641	15366	14204	11599	6770	8676	17222	13780	16103	15250	27773	10853	20685
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1316066	877945	667848	698217	866091	920708	848849	726815	828041	748942	645698	598520	605267	637815	621951	600647	582212	510575	466289	456240	584718
Hg	1A1a	54875	38220	51490	43571	10946	21019	14239	49860	49533	42452	118515	119187	164433	184757	174351	185531	170374	183462	188901	69746	183296
Hg	1A2fi	269883	157857	137819	124017	117789	113670	131487	131418	137593	115543	114408	131769	133299	257921	446029	331345	239948	282348	287050	238997	290821
Hg	1A4bi	254469	161321	131481	122468	130313	133448	164568	162441	153072	142440	162025	124354	126231	163304	158635	152478	152593	128381	133320	141602	162782
Hg	1B2aiv	89697	62645	48864	66202	63755	66645	53114	53164	67567	78446	102677	90934	93774	92672	99729	102079	85432	101328	78124	96771	49160
Hg	1B2b	701040	768250	804490	2280	2040	2350	2800	1990	2930	1980	1930	2090	730	750	780	760	710	710	50	42	39
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1454948	1260607	1240636	429133	392320	395813	422067	455192	469042	437017	553856	523657	573204	755258	937911	829202	707365	756909	755566	615098	750174

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A4bi	144069	91098	74772	69543	74248	75884	93635	92366	86840	80445	92069	70132	71193	92390	89755	85946	86165	72313	74921	79690	91840
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	148548	93952	75956	72134	76430	77349	95068	94148	89416	82672	94709	72775	73388	94171	91078	86914	87334	74026	76603	81699	93624