Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A2fii6898359420062235251922572340288230092611338234793407452047102756302680375655772
NOx1A3aii(i)647132892523853282792742812822302302172122425615303314366321
NOx1A4bi36892670221822272299238628152954275527322796268428203265319331763031266427632904
NOx1A4cii10342806832852193642750355362476871487510938610181953295079210920595079567100709678
NOxNATIONALTOTAL9162967863614756166965385655516825271457757877787574195747337708277974779188144882329883218489277345
NMVOC1A4bi101326464539750255363550367886707630158666675514052116733655562966300530555015846
NMVOC1B2av43872417207630323142361338023878405745314360423542524202420740874029421138654007
NMVOC3A386505521360335724254436754905911609659865952661659786040507464596823791877685983
SOx1A3719052276512776153864819768267585876583367345853708383968907111205246584420644632
SOx1A4ai66502910128422231980104891815521152103013721448199817671601130812089498491080
NH34B9d387138712321233938713871127714089841712144120801592166714301551160516611586237
CO1A2fi3794532540284992883428724278132833930304628835158324029260232415122104245502085820589214452232922441
CO1A2fii24921351592839058959613388157991776014074129041240412733124121500216702121212886134921418212270
CO1A3aii(i)216951321612230415932951962981782801742741201120711222122511411126
CO1A4bi19392112272510121494153100409102886126815125233117826109659124831957299712212569312220311748511745998828102452108845
CO1A4bii5972119442389113471149611645138859406110481881118065156761224212093107491209312541125411328712690
CO2B5a306241878313479171232146827185267352421424087206273000324018267942845017779172403911034869903752

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A3bii1731045015721885143086839432050133876561104813692249339518371110495699293505111067005625325475223618251031828201853206142661012606721051455876210
Pb1A3biv36972593914919301610430131982892976432303749494776463986570606163097767514407742977146236952280420238795212041661987351187981019540141820826
Pb2C1763933842856082426505219261316471511796511896018182326832819976318465515078288013112788223881179143209342198255361049269272
Cd1A1a123778129759141944136468293090377876302955213316250833240877114525452234532049788519984747841401370092858228511
Cd1A1b 5899689793779947749410119315828109792823944639747797367975739626458125878125398224988228197932998252682
Cd1A2fi678969540142458605455068457710491693496295446829504205465028428081457284462447255428234591217059226516359902301964311109
Cd1A31638811974113491219813270139191498016291170971804917892178441908920598212172294023267248162454223653
Cd1A4ai728693099010021109331268255845864129826072618464261186118105165521401713208103058982824313455
Cd1A4bi2198951380269924811762612563710333012319013602512016910304711696010444811952114109013215212639512026910046397981109649
Cd2C12367569927920389148161267090749151139862064115366142041159967708676172221378016103152502777320713
CdNATIONALTOTAL1502866113259792641593394610898241193712105354110212771087418988952863045796982843454875885858056827214805310961739639684894605
Hg1A1a5483138216514874355510945210191423949860495334245211851511918716443318475717435118553117037418346218890169746
Hg1A2fi301493209128155997156600141504121673132961202746137869115511114559132313144263261029450562331501234021278463288546235343
Hg1A4bi254469161321131481122468130313133448164568162441153072142440162025124354126231163304158635152478152593128381133320141602
Hg1B2b7010407682508044902280204023502800199029301980193020907307507807607107105042
HgNATIONALTOTAL148328913096021256847459712411409398738420117524472466654434682551682521468581392755434939147826634698874750201757206604307

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX1A4bi14406991098747726954374248758849363592366868408044592069701327119392390897558594686165723137492179690
DIOXNATIONALTOTAL14853293971764307216176458773719508194193894498270894738727707338494169910788690087348740597668581672
HCB6Cb250250250250250250250103121682580365239672206400120043310
HCBNATIONALTOTAL250250250250250250250103121682580365239672206400120043310