Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	82530	64839	58142	58559	60983	62782	65130	67493	71498	73710	72806	71172	70158	70965	68903	78464	79710	83926	78939
NMVOC	11B	1142					190					4209					113	152	113	1468
CO	2B5a	30624					27185					30003	212	194			17240	39110	17240	9037

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
PM2.5	2B5a	6	430	423			12	14	12	14
PM10	2B5a	8	629	617			16	19	16	18
TSP	2A6	7861	15	30			19394	17890	19394	21419

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A1a	615958					788722					505547	489315	529303			538017	510092	538017	510656
Pb	1A1b						131575					62147	47845	74628			330237	324907	330237	42905
Pb	1A2fi	949262					651282					565342	631400	666409			311358	315803	311358	421447
Pb	1A2fii	2586					109914					98276					89225	94397	89225	102156
Pb	1A3	320499813					320504372					269783621					47309278	2251000	2480000	158279
Pb	1A3bi	304261776					304261776					250601927	89673000	52890000			45013945	2141000	2367000	89599
Pb	1A3bii	11054630					11054630					11117229	7846000	1631000			876543	83000	86000	34053
Pb	1A3biv	4284096					4284096					7374795	4828000	1219000			1176527			69
Pb	2A7d	468333					283577					236395	1804090	1902470			387277	388744	387277	540944
Pb	2C1	76393384					117965					184655					179143	209342	179143	361049
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	399499996					322908537	268000000	190000000	183000000	178000000	271890205	107030041	60120167			49614325	4557665	4785047	2554687
Cd	1A1b						101193					47797	36797	57396			253982	249882	253982	32998
Cd	1A3bi	14785					14785					20568	10000	10000			78902	85000	94000	75154
Cd	2C1	236756					9074					14204					13780	16103	13780	27773
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1484495					1216597	1040000	1030000	1060000	1050000	872272	873804	928879			923598	923750	941330	765454
Hg	1A1a	54831					21019					118515	119164	164433			185531	170374	185531	188901
Hg	1A2fi	300857					120935					114559	124100	126687			331501	234021	331501	288599
Hg	1B2b	701040					2350					1930					760	710	760	50
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1376807					332178	300000	320000	320000	310000	448834	405168	448583			724554	613422	724554	669801