Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	88007	64839	58142	58559	60983	60186	65130	67493	71498	73710	71608	71172	70158	70965	68903	76557	79426	82110
CO	2B5a	36534											212	194			17240	39110	34869
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	539548	382906	323348	310121	331848	338020	380437	379299	378487	373517	380842	326020	308785	324543	311113	346734	379805	360829

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
PM2.5	2B5a		430	423			0
PM10	2B5a		629	617			1
TSP	2B5a		654	646			2	424	505

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A2fi	949260											631400	666409			249423	315800	246630
Pb	1A3bi	401589326											89673000	52890000			4642000	3253156	3319400
Pb	1A3bii	16793341											7846000	1631000			563000	110189	102600
Pb	1A3biv	3877264											4828000	1219000			1029000	107825	117000
Pb	2A7d	3305880											1804090	1902470			2730000	2744080	2922200
Pb	2C5e												814280	473750			960000
Cd	1A2fi	678970											404660	432393			110303	226520	169250
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1264030					950000	1040000	1030000	1060000	1050000	1020000	873804	928879			826227	835940	789900
Cd	SNAPTOTAL	1262940																835210	789150
Hg	1A2fi	301490											124100	126687			319921	234020	283200
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1361160					290000	300000	320000	320000	310000	410000	405168	448583			692860	587760	624070
Hg	SNAPTOTAL	1361160																587760	624070