Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GR

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2010

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2010

PMs:

2000 – 2010

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
NOx1A3bi144270146273146741150443151843144560146101148309149655151299151233153121151684151422152061147144148829146971141968136463103683
NOx1A4ci423374394140683396693995937096376673761437614376223763138122420234580638830408724087936656352092775124671
NOxNATIONALTOTAL329311339264345850343603351538331340335379348491370879368806361838384201385266394942400910418608414922416378394367381895321621
NMVOC1A3bi137312135726130965131788129694119008118519118223118039117656105341103590973049224088050775197491168273600045735145631
NMVOC1B2aiv222232160222808220232338725314258782647527366264972857628279292073000928963317583324534883336903347030880
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL268178270378267738266886264422257813258046259515264931267841263975261791257024244517244534220072229960218702227721212065184379
SOx1A1a276702317301339479354215358479383601361080355164351231379002339391344222355515393423379449388704364609375299331496296180165302
SOx1A2b186711897418654186211624716426166801689217639178762001119778212872148821753175851874318652715035334712
SOx1A4bi164071669816443156389964943212797133111387113227144041545815791186931787518205172271544815039128764058
SOxNATIONALTOTAL473434514778532621529713521263538748528839527511535092553601495063502565513537551762546249537872532663537429443723424517264007
NH31A3bi15029043057071085099011301270141015501690183019702110225023902530267028102100
CO1A3bi871842843046793862799441781372694685688720684753684243681227634694630909592474571383558379493111510422446867397906375145317903
CO4F270573793030857295403222630259296512997228128276182920929912289102668629804300932764226944324263108030469