Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A3biii	284566	283637	273132	276541	269832	263336	258246	255173	252791	247960	238218	232530	227421	224156	220278	213425	209207	207323	185933	155192	146641
NMVOC	11C	91362	91212	91179	91176	91278	91640	91402	91252	91150	91230	91219	91267	91241	92460	91225	91265	91324	91270	91270	91270	91270
NH3	4B13	19286	19192	19172	18750	18612	18468	18264	17950	18137	18410	18194	17754	17532	18165	17777	17819	20384	17302	18124	18042	18874
NH3	4B9a	13633	13320	13107	12744	12455	11926	11441	12451	10550	10293	9938	10187	9619	9592	9513	9303	8847	8341	7825	7964	8449
CO	1A1a	112941	110911	108088	98347	107228	105670	104743	44764	60765	53828	66859	66968	65226	70036	71272	73236	79921	80449	81584	70822	72894
CO	1A2fii	207973	197563	197346	200166	209491	212744	212793	212861	212924	212948	212909	212941	212932	210640	221877	222553	225621	234856	225977	194682	218432
CO	2C1	442833	417668	428821	431362	447249	455315	459274	467794	448589	440956	333342	355154	283667	276768	299794	310155	334715	313282	288236	237154	153600

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM2.5	11C	5836	5975	6096	7118	6232	6285	6439	6471	6420	6369	6271

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A2fi	20064419	19064398	19712137	18628221	18568562	19923018	19341674	19577729	18528638	17669546	16771404	16400468	19463736	17439398	23454064	15644714	10550562	11172853	10398651	12997635	11370541
Pb	1A3bi	1948818784	1745442894	1564186703	1384235344	1174821237	969129281	827125102	727225855	534248622	282954517	1523094	1342815	1286979	1276239	1287213	1337087	1335781	970487	959356	931806	899771
Pb	1A3bii	177517843	155405538	129884417	110148606	89844442	68221566	54028486	44361174	31017491	13806885	214929	211957	213336	221966	231308	237244	245473	246475	241160	233672	234985
Pb	2C5a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	12477588	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1184918	3342965	1540423	3143038	4941660	1268389	419865	156933
Pb	2C5b	6251746	5982405	6507198	6755918	6590374	6124526	6574020	5985216	6061239	5004350	5119894	8295340	9480555	6611985	3529969	1264629	1284973	1830082	1249143	1582506	1303801
Cd	1A1a	5278493	5038611	4964658	2595704	2529478	1755570	1384656	724141	761445	661023	455891	601877	571890	584092	718617	869557	876083	171757	115105	187042	106144
Cd	1A2fi	825794	1050759	1015289	839276	756867	647048	596978	444763	426293	261994	250613	306875	293829	233809	296451	385675	271827	288062	203866	202442	391975
Cd	1A3bi	226400	225762	229741	231700	228249	225328	233853	235757	233997	238798	238349	237567	241572	237395	238849	236404	235110	233596	229310	220958	213615
Cd	1A3di(i)	378865	360742	370142	382005	323284	391134	415849	505891	468541	299654	227025	205054	169778	209699	313090	378439	483523	601264	751386	677371	571439
Cd	2C1	1411889	1313076	1296879	1319248	1363326	1395314	1422517	1464301	1379688	1186231	1063749	973636	794680	910117	917527	937105	941352	949554	906263	670110	621899
Cd	2C5a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	916653	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49994	22580	22499	23240	11160	8830	8620
Cd	2C5b	298709	282055	314505	329884	319648	290843	318636	144024	230147	174860	148638	76898	94370	66897	46944	13361	14183	41784	55268	14690	25637
Cd	2C5d	2367981	2453526	2419116	2568730	2400719	2400730	1683705	2297705	979674	1252705	1051705	830705	978705	646
Cd	2C5e	1248275	1077052	1162845	1123644	965908	813704	669515	532214	398516	262625	167870	162742	170512	156207	124938	130416	155350	85980	100292	50138	82622
Cd	6Cc	7461008	7386086	7083402	1270884	822304	416506	170341
Hg	1A1a	9453612	9365496	9091010	5108964	4863464	4454666	2804823	2562231	2271435	1630753	1681350	1761230	1531770	1911500	1762817	2332495	2252618	2232814	1805069	1295993	1469185
Hg	1A1b	21148	23065	23649	24472	25486	24315	24236	24835	23889	16358	15308	16147	16840	16501	19806	20726	15865	28230	52397	78610	320903
Hg	1A2fi	1458078	1355251	1460141	925641	834496	764615	662875	588505	1003890	754845	883701	655683	828650	613673	594142	578636	593982	550914	655540	681763	633140
Hg	2B5a	8024333	8827725	7373717	3234710	3541496	4159880	2346840	1090797	1207820	1453017	1394897	1442197	1244147	1228987	1180457	1141000	1321050	879550	950550	793550	810550
Hg	2C1	552567	516615	510304	517259	533349	547101	558133	574333	543969	551303	528528	448537	372733	570215	438907	499054	620623	687104	451218	1725735	389172
Hg	2C5d	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000
Hg	2C5e	4802124	4143536	4473309	4322560	3716104	3130920	2576513	2048631	1534537	998378	654796	618851	583089	580835	459663	482064	406922	287994	301258	163692	157595
Hg	6Ca	330058	330058	311198	292337	152297	437798	169131	237485	168515	61897	92143	74139	106752	491895	43169	96040	63610	57195	121074	663813	343176
Hg	6Cc	6144359	6082659	5833390	729753	437134	258444	223334
Hg	6Cd	506474	537634	560081	609116	611107	652229	680646	709125	725213	761595	778017	788701	832434	870726	873127	910037	929852	968797	1017292	907675	836389

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	7A	64950	58769	58319	55239	54341	62960	57671	52611	49320	54156	49368	52218	53615	58742	48387	46287	47232	45150	40604	40604	40604
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3169576213	3062478937	3370313408	3683000276	3955633611	4127555495	4171292941	4171919766	4427900404	93984688	79721963	70300934	65570018	63587874	75081052	70648681	66329576	62446964	58187471	31505654	32413811