Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A2fii	121158	115094	114967	116610	122042	123937	124047	124208	124360	122895	119828	116296	112445	108095	109015	104634	102499	101009	94384	81447
NOx	1A3bi	641152	636644	624609	577352	537360	501823	477506	450909	422753	395618	360040	324951	297863	268800	247570	227185	206214	187554	172585	125457
NOx	1A3biii	336766	336659	325882	333873	327781	321737	317434	314900	312901	307925	297251	288052	279242	272619	268673	257887	251518	239642	214473	185280
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2682674	2582140	2525155	2379300	2285287	2180291	2092445	1956011	1919067	1827904	1789160	1752724	1664458	1635018	1587382	1553216	1495463	1413603	1251967	1086183
NMVOC	11C	91362	91212	91179	91176	91278	91640	91402	91252	91150	91230	91219	91267	91241	92460	91225	91265	91324	91270	91270	91270
NMVOC	1A3bi	553508	565443	552741	523210	481471	447825	433347	392583	363585	329947	283301	247636	215617	186431	163052	141442	125150	112142	101989	58627
SOx	2A7d	4265	3459	3096	2605	5451	9672	10164	13414	13088	8936	10515	9067	12002	16365	16551	17246	18387	15856	17136	6389
NH3	4B13	21864	21864	21864	21864	21864	21864	21864	21864	22137	21942	21905	21450	21450	21988	21988	22272	25327	22194	22845	22845
NH3	4B1a	75835	73951	72550	72224	73988	71908	72538	71485	70123	71241	68274	68188	68528	68094	67230	65960	70087	67154	66458	65535
NH3	4B9a	13625	13320	13106	12743	12402	11871	12211	12450	10551	10293	9938	10187	9619	9592	9514	9305	8847	8341	7825	7964
CO	1A1a	112614	110560	107775	98132	106990	105518	104564	44672	60699	53772	66721	66877	65246	70556	71642	73254	79765	80201	81060	70898
CO	1A2fii	202965	192806	192595	195346	204447	207621	207668	207734	207795	207817	207781	207821	207820	207721	220742	217911	226301	233673	225391	196463

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
PM2.5	11C	5836	5975	6096	7118	6232	6285	6439	6471	6420	6369

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2fi	24245259	24071821	24796050	23444147	22831205	23088545	22154776	21316762	19667087	18795142	17663910	17574699	20564517	18440791	24332678	16515943	11435732	12125120	11228184	10958483
Pb	1A3bi	1952195665	1748521707	1566976891	1386772414	1177071409	971111594	828861825	728705107	535323760	283535807	1543108	1362855	1306702	1295332	1305671	1354153	1351311	983071	957181	940479
Pb	1A3bii	177177112	155159546	129786852	110169782	89990741	68406729	54199897	44633236	31302229	13975253	216345	213319	214751	223515	233004	239082	247387	248485	242998	235399
Pb	2C5a	15652307	10737370	8507506	9023380	9841575	10437316	10807001	12477588	7647572	8621826	9842473	9595219	5357541	1184918	3368956	1564039	3196006	5110206	1311650	419865
Pb	2C5b	6251746	5982405	6507198	6755918	6590374	6124526	6574020	5985216	6061239	5004350	5119894	8295340	9480555	6611985	3529969	1264629	1284973	1830082	1249143	1582506
Cd	1A1a	4539765	4241444	4230425	2459403	2402966	1682763	1366786	722056	759268	659586	454614	601082	575534	586189	719277	871707	873614	168061	112792	183296
Cd	1A2fi	1561945	1873872	1853509	1617849	1444010	1131005	1003176	741201	674115	418065	389941	481596	407749	326196	372742	397775	317592	365182	270122	238183
Cd	1A3di(i)	381350	363225	372644	384559	325970	393852	418568	508603	471263	302365	229753	207738	172496	212417	315862	381265	486377	604131	754895	681015
Cd	2C1	1411889	1313076	1296879	1319248	1363326	1395314	1422517	1464301	1379688	1186231	1063749	973636	794680	910117	917527	937105	941352	947108	906263	670110
Cd	2C5a	908056	753802	728760	753776	862597	891549	894653	916653	263458	511151	1180641	103220	336339	65971	49977	22580	22499	23240	11160	8830
Cd	2C5b	298709	282055	314505	329884	319648	290843	318636	144024	230147	174860	148638	76898	94370	66897	46944	13361	14183	41784	55268	14690
Cd	2C5d	2367981	2453526	2419116	2568730	2400719	2400730	1683705	2297705	979674	1252705	1051705	830705	978705	646
Cd	2C5e	1248275	1077052	1162845	1123644	965908	813704	669515	532214	398516	262625	167870	162742	170512	156207	124938	130416	155350	85980	106784	44362
Cd	6Cc	7461008	7386086	7083402	1270884	822304	416506	170341
Hg	1A1a	8845248	8709006	8486348	5030699	4796211	4409488	2781393	2547149	2266802	1627133	1677020	1752381	1533705	1912520	1785848	2325645	2251197	2229039	1803563	1292853
Hg	1A2fi	2632307	2791136	2912807	2310098	2055338	1691717	1504294	1088029	1265223	1070518	1123452	981248	1165392	934258	880829	877659	896817	864282	959621	955873
Hg	1A4ai	1261169	1263936	1116651	525078	415124	299945	301880	327035	203056	197871	145302	146624	87621	76583	72754	92451	79660	73755	73749	96176
Hg	2B5a	8024333	8827725	7373717	3234710	3541496	4159880	2346840	1090797	1207820	1453017	1394897	1442197	1244147	1228987	1180457	1141000	1321050	879550	950550	793550
Hg	2C1	552567	516615	510304	517259	533349	547101	558133	574333	543969	551303	528528	448537	372733	570215	438907	499054	620623	686864	451218	1725735
Hg	2C5d	2860427	2963837	2922246	3103014	2900000	2900000	2273194	1908562	1351500	294000	717000	722000	207000
Hg	2C5e	4802124	4143536	4473309	4322560	3716104	3130920	2576513	2048631	1534537	998378	654796	618851	583089	580835	459663	482064	406922	287994	326222	141485
Hg	6Ca	330058	330058	311198	292337	152297	437798	169131	237485	168515	61897	92143	74139	106752	491895	43169	96040	63610	57195	121074	675855
Hg	6Cc	6144359	6082659	5833390	729753	437134	258444	223334

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A2fi	38445	39069	39124	35604	44114	43238	42310	40780	32603	30010	23954	23753	19170	18547	43103	12463	12061	12030	14491	15033
DIOX	7A	64950	58769	58319	55239	54341	62960	57671	52611	49320	54156	49368	52218	53615	58742	48387	46287	47232	45150	40604	40603
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3169576213	3062478937	3370313408	3683000276	3955633611	4127555495	4171292941	4171919766	4427900404	93984688	79721963	70300934	65570018	63587874	75081052	70648681	66329576	62446964	58187471	32592692