Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GB

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NMVOC	7B	91811	91475	91401	91393	91622	92433	92231	91723	91226	91473	91596	91587	91451	92795	91522	91562	91619	91614
NH3	4B13	19286	19192	19172	18750	18612	18468	18264	17950	18137	18410	18194	17754	17532	18165	17790	17864	20384	17302
CO	1A1a	113202	112042	109295	98943	107517	105990	105053	44792	60686	54002	66518	66823	63870	71076	71541	72934	79879	81228

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A2a	30440873	29469587	28574281	28797750	29645989	30284868	31666764	32253299	31455879	29996338	26914535	24419163	21169164	25216350	25104419	32176885	28792685	27948313
Pb	1A3bi	1950582516	1746470480	1565259280	1385774650	1176487054	970794715	828581434	728557230	535146583	283327722	1563186	1380967	1328767	1316912	1333093	1384574	1382323	1020917
Pb	1A3bii	179639356	157970219	132355218	112057264	91344175	69437925	55245542	45509154	32151878	14559515	190000	177950	184426	185502	197408	222360	225283	223151
Pb	6Ca	238121003	235818181	226093668	168576275	100512373	70024946	53388418	2760049	744780	1153052	1144204	184407	218759	216873	213995	80665	20587	20717
Cd	1A1a	4606363	4451283	4440125	2541686	2427472	1703926	1401048	724689	767803	653709	451974	600041	570270	584150	714477	853754	871584	184251
Cd	1A2fi	1500369	1598823	1582231	1517725	1418340	1099687	974620	827726	732872	492006	450166	525717	454496	355118	411563	440343	338947	405615
Cd	1A3di(i)	432329	401477	408401	412100	352670	420629	454681	554301	528246	371627	300483	280417	251895	276215	321408	362318	409827	452963
Cd	2C1	5836584	5495311	5546770	5719230	5523044	5394464	4570231	4942441	2843151	3048082	3363123	1864642	2123154	925939	882051	825274	867750	840911
Cd	6Ca	7946544	7863583	7528995	1662064	1190726	699073	259456	61596	31954	30818	64490	65632	15500	18940	13150	13887	35095	33543
Hg	1A1a	8868083	8780955	8558249	5055743	4801783	4418131	2790595	2514736	2261168	1623131	1670213	1745697	1527671	1907459	1763717	2334999	2290169	2486802
Hg	1A2a	402816	376718	370177	365647	323410	304264	318597	330316	317543	304729	270329	250968	217643	252974	251497	260949	235312	228046
Hg	1A2fi	2598325	2751865	2878201	2280266	2055570	1686264	1498033	1083747	1257878	1067339	1121804	963614	1160641	927659	886228	885250	886506	817752
Hg	2B5a	8024339	8827975	7373792	3234701	3541790	4159880	2346840	1090797	1207820	1453017	1394897	1442197	1244147	1228987	1180457	1141000	1502950	1061950
Hg	2C1	7942326	7359745	7652098	7689691	6887844	6309236	5125959	4331508	3173434	1626839	1679612	1573666	973217	917943	686934	774574	830853	942462
Hg	6Ca	7071567	7037619	6791081	1704213	1275362	1514865	1254672	1081612	1046590	885921	935664	896068	921788	1433530	889360	973233	911894	926211

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DIOX	1A2fi	40311	40139	40235	37333	46318	45409	44465	43310	34864	32333	24717	24560	20081	19404	44154	14249	13206	12948
DIOX	7B	63236	63239	63363	63472	63597	63728	63843	63967	64105	64281	64443	64914	65122	65354	65635	66010	66387	127750
HCB	4G	482232500	379519000	580070500	577088000	508890500	517524000	546589500	541685000	514662500	485753000	279877500	273088500	291266000	298433500	821791500	811547000	787509000	786291500
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3515428400	3361168126	3858336157	4169331270	4375648993	4549365011	4620540028	4621516554	4855865814	533769750	325223040	313593192	326958879	329075009	849632771	838319941	813215045	812025389
HCB	NECDTOTAL	3515428400	3361168126	3858336157	4169331270	4375648993	4549365011	4620540028	4621516554	4855865814	533769750	325223040	313593192	326958879	329075009	849632771	838319941	813215045	812025389