Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2fi	84848	83881	78401	75500	75489	71390	73584	70750	67388	69293	70441	64616	63934	61645	62214	59523	57508	56504	54132	47871	49094
NOx	1A3bi	638346	631980	638557	609566	575522	534241	505786	473728	449254	428376	399841	383178	359115	339699	321446	296611	280189	269691	256914	251036	244450
NOx	1A4cii	139105	135979	136500	135946	137803	139105	137650	138514	138174	137760	139358	139498	137399	136876	133510	131756	126108	112838	119732	106574	94492
NOx	7B	260433	250217	244000	232475	232995	232954	232147	230910	229090	227347	228612	223692	224286	218505	216925	216425	211126	211152	216151	206291	206785
NMVOC	11C	110907	108374	108747	104163	109879	111369	99952	110171	103025	113200	109055	103134	102445	129784	106674	114504	123400	101792	99852	101436	92671
NMVOC	1A3dii	42432	43798	45417	47170	48568	51283	52694	53942	56567	58249	57759	58633	63320	63574	65200	63008	62172	56209	52471	47711	41710
NMVOC	1A4bi	515790	612265	585642	563906	488280	496680	531559	452975	441640	402816	359998	347585	300792	310054	293283	269190	231596	203357	196953	185688	190793
NMVOC	1A4cii	39153	38837	38646	37807	38276	36313	36232	36521	34560	34557	34871	34929	34506	34346	33929	33722	32829	30635	30802	27365	24557
NMVOC	3D2	113465	112353	111238	109947	110201	110444	110682	110708	110748	110931	111261	111638	112021	112392	112658	112951	113194	113359	113817	114262	114454
NMVOC	7B	1240070	1218411	1218816	1200790	1282815	1301893	1162984	1307491	1211382	1340765	1268010	1236252	1202566	1587467	1263077	1363805	1485770	1189307	1179193	1313523	1220486
SOx	1B2aiv	52145	58669	52157	48214	49356	49430	49769	52814	55002	51571	50791	46115	40734	38886	43665	38522	43063	42347	37951	31679	23102
NH3	4B1a	166090	158042	151028	147636	147574	145782	143244	140532	139234	138363	138357	138319	138661	135661	133575	133467	130929	130892	132110	127823	128441
CO	1A2a	726450	688382	657413	608649	674709	659643	613343	678083	702018	680947	692108	621875	680943	666869	664633	638370	653034	629144	610700	406774	508451
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	10919553	11116576	10692297	10164946	9437322	9289010	8724125	8091296	7781328	7224481	6567256	6164707	5958152	5687930	5812304	5311014	4785906	4520449	4355348	3666349	3984985

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	53357355	58520442	61299709	59926713	56095460	49360722	47592782	33116673	27250514	22651786	23343764	18139930	14742541	11105795	8969260	8159928	4806209	4270785	4109826	3655094	3098554
Pb	1A2a	38567300	36856469	35177677	32410328	35956154	35542430	33247146	36556858	38037688	36797696	37742304	34166565	36786889	45284004	40960201	35035693	35978467	32002994	30625318	23368303	33887073
Pb	1A2b	61569062	56975565	55084065	52648679	52026219	51882972	52762292	50165011	52374919	46342274	47472091	39113220	38979739	1216209	1189725	1410017	1254424	1516020	960319	736730	777271
Pb	1A2d	1675814	1748065	1786180	1978285	1970950	1248530	2076010	2276991	2158921	2087821	2028350	2022150	1973155	2093914	2072497	2158831	2368763	2716783	3125335	3101348	3084276
Pb	1A2fi	34447312	34419510	34164110	32765958	33615629	33777244	34082655	34666161	34976259	34181692	34232071	32840046	32960439	30242937	28722171	34804854	28569689	34515263	24827473	8852489	7945620
Pb	1A3aii(i)	8778262	8778262	8718949	7888573	7908344	7275676	6722092	6900030	6643009	7077968	7196593	6702321	6465071	5871945	5733549	6030112	5931258	5852174	5516070	6801176	6010341
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	15605798	15605798	15500354	14024130	14059278	12934535	11950386	12266720	11809793	12583054	12793943	11915238	11493460	10439014	10192976	10720199	10544458	10403866	9806346	12090979	10685051
Pb	1A3bi	3467277716	2228482759	1557885236	1341878124	1166212483	1021346944	868659993	744433017	638039119	449432167	7525992	1471392	1441505	1426601	1392899	1348972	1340978	1339864	1322427	1304498	1304368
Pb	1A3bii	359362933	226683206	144906144	118625178	105566251	92711298	82441495	73018967	65359035	47706630	1119960	368681	366456	356799	315539	317452	318174	316385	314947	319854	333303
Pb	1A4bi	30136127	35839132	34434907	33181485	28672172	29092462	31296086	26813087	26245401	24049927	21654762	21094989	18460392	19294536	18489998	17252504	15241321	13561510	13440714	12914544	13583714
Pb	6Cc	25276990	28611357	31954846	33876381	30667548	24756537	21946962	16343600	14192940	9898037	9298896	4461817	3169949	1671114	351589	270992	107740	83090	89421	69124	49255
Cd	1A1a	4037998	4475078	4643246	4541683	4271181	3790496	3605151	2543311	2116409	1891308	1913276	1699065	1462596	1222639	995423	910393	501516	585766	417065	344898	329586
Cd	1A2a	1376172	1548524	1478384	1373647	1521530	1476676	1367630	1516093	1566002	1523866	1535544	1374022	1522863	1484834	1204756	1030143	766904	760591	1025698	504632	652774
Cd	1A2b	2547331	2482141	2468385	2330736	2249834	1952023	1965361	1927030	1875033	1529739	1417029	1330546	1292918	315233	299329	246746	149562	156243	141779	183814	183304
Cd	1A2fi	2417091	2343739	2275641	2138802	2118344	2153981	2082095	2043264	2040333	1935948	1879903	1764969	1748078	1778414	1819720	2228382	1618746	1420235	1289017	691148	587652
Cd	1A3bi	379749	386202	398055	392735	386929	376040	367643	359421	354872	352358	337960	336041	324710	315636	304319	290081	282911	278198	268909	262219	256856
Cd	1A4bi	473267	561942	537950	518192	448340	455975	490181	419167	410260	375861	337893	329370	287805	300422	287754	268563	237373	211734	209409	201428	211770
Cd	2C1	4215223	4076588	3813511	3646611	4161989	4362223	4378509	5050154	4929288	4669494	5018050	4821174	4588883	2839157	941192	610356	451265	299177	298944	153606	149896
Cd	6Ca	2181027	1662402	1283511	1008000	801445	735617	622644	504000	268730	241479	192412	143971	96470	61751	37268	3650	3940	1620	1240	1693	3213
Cd	6Cb	545519	550009	568270	561582	621745	623953	633581	547656	517563	472752	428170	364663	303222	223734	142790	181626	180693	141143	172836	168387	137288
Cd	6Cc	1734108	1795079	1844681	1839917	1690419	1456219	1280990	947007	780176	548478	520688	281109	190174	113168	45128	36807	16212	19698	11969	9407	8835
Hg	1A2b	2062727	2123001	2214144	2065115	2021996	2193418	2279710	2169098	2180072	2121445	2172198	2136598	2147922	12610	3038	49743	7141	4396	4934	3316	819
Hg	1A2e	239736	225305	265144	214310	257905	245856	222497	205457	199524	198011	152436	147754	98177	136567	169093	140012	142645	183557	125410	107014	101969
Hg	1A2fi	3258200	3101706	2875804	2635806	2502709	2283360	2096080	1896504	1702004	1486695	1294611	1032328	887502	784475	1021092	830497	784635	802830	785470	694335	643105
Hg	2B5a	2848780	2368158	2106000	2045000	2097000	1992000	1983000	1314000	1131000	1083000	1007000	831000	746000	857000	729000	818000	616820	590790	576570	532320	482730
Hg	6Ca	1226828	935101	721975	567000	450813	413785	350237	283500	151667	137149	110190	83595	62705	38175	24612	810	3080	1630	6530	1235	8305
Hg	6Cb	1193606	1205326	1251471	1235242	1386114	1392121	1409118	1233336	1202875	1138741	1082402	1002194	944643	813241	680088	527512	1241938	231761	293615	286959	460580
Hg	6Cc	2792580	2571451	2304794	2014988	1883578	1780736	1517289	1026193	757712	521070	491063	268431	182268	115938	57165	68336	41850	22500	24706	22279	22893

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A4bi	34191	40587	38877	37454	32437	32968	35446	30361	29747	27289	24577	24045	21050	21963	21068	19700	17432	15562	15433	14842	15599
HCB	1A2b	1125841615	1145991966	1172030488	555627552	2622649	2857493	2733270	2619648	2084330	71250	1821	1935	762	516		2453	184	103	158	100
HCB	1A3bii	738112	833686	932058	1027039	1084161	1144212	1189275	1239436	1277410	1321494	1347676	1429513	1492744	1564022	1566611	1603535	1632158	1651345	1727386	1837455	1914663
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1200238580	1221980854	1249003836	632288806	77800956	75605824	76622575	68459592	62497013	55128469	50629946	41521160	33962631	28739935	23720499	19710767	14468674	14867536	15342923	15747005	16169882