Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A3bi626857623930633676593340557549515204486007454175428679407230378351361933338296320165304245280704265251255093241788239258
NOx1A3biii385119398853416030411789418791415503408598417792416807417376412003404300395614373846372749359836352586340901299464258276
NOxNATIONALTOTAL18338011894239188352017825841735142170361116867261636907167472116252071575436154427815223041484061145233214243391355807129549612021951116730
NMVOC11C11090710837410874710416310987911136999952110171103025113200109055103134102445129784106674114504123400101792107994107994
NMVOC1A4bi506169602282579475558303482355488956523765447428436119397704358865343623301287307094290293266082228932201315194201181527
NMVOC1A4cii3916238850386683786338350363853633536594345573447434697346843429334052332483296832049311663033827290
NMVOC2D23294030765316163111131042312023132531042306893131831466311403136231356325733240232658331063227732578
NMVOC7B12400701218411121881612007901282815130189311629841307491121138213407651268010123625212025661587467126307713638051485770118930711791931179193
NH34B1a151313143346135695132203131424128852126275123184121509120321119907119978119372116557114269112921110637110413110087106506
CO1A2a725967687987657014608313674351659286612975677687701606680458691579621462680478666355663981637985652559628701610236407626
CO1A4bi23250842761648264897925517552208376224307624244012090148206362119115201757588173774015582381628442158582415151971389065128204013029161286929

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A2a3854882036837980351776773241032835956154355424303324714636556858380376883679769637742005341668363677443145278718409553633503850735976272320010673062317623416786
Pb1A2b6148343056811224550170825259012751964635518268355271500650121984523375694631008647442583390902793896381512057951171487140731012493191509143958768737702
Pb1A2d16018891674302177250519809531974732125570720836412284919215769714620791430983143369619707622107393212972221426602418902278666031557493119901
Pb1A2fi344751283444757234127708327632513361178833770003340749593465801334977262335426023362098132252076329782473025872428673049347812532850439734467102247344818635341
Pb1A3aii(i)87782628778262871894978885737908344727567667220926900030664300970779687196593670232164650715871945573354960301125931258585217455160706801176
Pb1A3aii(ii)156057981560579815500354140241301405927812934535119503861226672011809793125830541279394311915238114934601043901410192976107201991054445810403866980634612090979
Pb1A3bii42535927326821871417158296414257119812488379111112056697437527871667387906973657389559825959         
Pb1A4bi3013612735839132344349073318148528672172290924623129608626813087262454012404992721827837211463401872321819307946184863891725029315266829136801691346908512867132
Pb6Cc25276990286113573195484633876381306675482475653721946962163436001419294098980379298896446181731699491671114351589270992107740830908942165858
Cd1A1a40379904475080464324645416834271181379049636051512543311211641618908381913085169906514625961222670995450910393501516585766417065333571
Cd1A2a13736751546026147838413736471521530147667613676301516093156600215238661535527137403715211911484243120434610305547667367604701025559505849
Cd1A2b2547344248195124683852330736224983419520231965361192703018750331529739141702113305541293059314022299360246412149387155642141402183764
Cd1A2fi2417878234456022750752138760211828421538682081975204313820403491926006187038617558311749756178056418194562224199161652614203561288515695037
Cd1A4bi473267561942537950518192448340455975490181419167410260375861340639330121291828300702287720268528237770213580209850200691
Cd2C142152234076588381351136466114161989436222343785095050154492928846694945018050482117445888832839157941192610356451265299177298944155637
Cd6Ca218102716624021283511100800080144573561762264450400026873024147919241214397196470617513726836503940162012401693
Cd6Cb537510542023560308553643613828616058625353539952510448466294422435360221299939221323141218177904175225132680161152168202
Cd6Cc173410817950791844681183991716904191456219128099094700778017654847852068828110919017411316845128368071621219698119698962
Hg1A2b2062733210633322141442065115202199621934182279710216909821800722121445217155421372172151224127813088492106860511555154255
Hg1A2e244168229827265144214310257905245856222497205457199524198011151427148729101848138361168865133322140088198011143938129571
Hg1A2fi3259039310259728754772635768250266422832922096006189643317020181481017128806510279118914617869991020805827043781464803783788959742316
Hg2B5a28487802368158210600020450002097000199200019830001314000113100010830001007000831000746000857000729000818000616820590790576570532320
Hg2C1291373279346275179260915298387309289308583352644352390330626350700330741310198297670298112273107446182222790261059206191
Hg6Ca1226828935101721975567000450813413785350237283500151667137149110190835956270538175246128103080163065301235
Hg6Cb1193606120532612514711235242138611413921211409118123333612028751138741108240210021949446438132416800885246871236471222639280352307430
Hg6Cc27925802571451230479420149881883578178073615172891026193757712521070491063268431182268115938571656833641850225002470621227

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX1A4bi4939655606464394410440099444444663237133362273290828120276552284522712210851984017973179461613616188
DIOX2C129030267082457122605219542400024000360003600013000116009800136001343413849126261320512917110582890
HCB1A2b112584161111459912161172029738555626852262213228568632732468261913720840397115717861967929512 2452184103158111
HCB1A3bii640827729607816291906699961418102320910657801109239114344611798451210851130213713654201446525146059415025901552238159064716350371736669
HCB1A3biii16205421732693185658318848551983031205566021022052193675225748423494232386465247152325273632551406265052326838372762760282325327130772568861
HCBNATIONALTOTAL12000226041221756088124876051463203097177540522753310917633951068152671621647615472635650231434411436133363394028408016233906591916580214091314144743511484288515158778