Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FR

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2007

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2007

PMs:

2000 – 2007

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
NOx1A3bi627792625028634553593200557095514298484634452831425867402006371208354642332306316517301698279599265851256677
NMVOC1A4bi539955661137626453613461531601537387563885495774502921470346430838393213341628350212332230306933275347241718
NMVOC7B109310210798921078555105771811292081145142103148011626981073206118925811233331098862106507314160341120774121412913279981057128
NH34B1a151313143346135695132203131424128852126275123184121509120321119907119978119372116557114269112921110637109724
CO1A4bi248264930300382862468279689924184992443192258394622965932361752224674921035061973006175567118461961807388173525816208881486507

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Pb1A2a386083653691494135233577324549663605892635605728333062523661723538109194368130853775162634186368367831724528092440963786350293343597982131908832
Pb1A2b6153082856851502550500325260759351978808518399785272853750132123523438664631755147450226391029363896629712180901182718142057212616151520887
Pb1A3bii42364555926721307017105470114211560212455814411093801897528010877600728068828959877103884857       
Pb1A4bi323343673948719437294227364240433145964131735523333511792945591830065266283376062621555624198868212069332195104421060542197408401798855516082210
Cd1A1a40124464414819461239245319244263869377413535913842531853208837718718201891970168319714480941195786973483865956458316555860
Cd1A2a1379169155244814830621378216152904514817571372100152192515733301525818153650213754861522262148452912051841030275767387755062
Cd1A2b2553497248707024718592332884225171619538011967165192835718760761530760141807113319221293579315675300877248067151039157229
Cd1A2fi223221921584472068465194614819093091909615184347817955301752751164762515825921450934146260214941901575905197323214120101163455
Cd1A4bi506530617803582466568670490707495677520789459274468405441296408228376772329990341546327693307095279840250202
Cd2C142152234076588381351136466114161989436222343785095050154492928846694945018050482117445888832839157941192610356451265299177
Cd6Ca218102716624021283511100800080144573561762264447350818576415534912377292238603722867118214365039401620
Cd6Cb43739844220246077645439951485751737552251043562440484335961931489926305621272313846961822925238705936042
Cd6Cc183422018949001944213193916017893891554902138383410513368857816551536282243795472798631973981237311144059242588672
Hg1A2b20858742131629227131620797382026771219618122839282173469217163521224562172352215747121423181590455165911599897620
Hg1A2fi3337644316582529436572695018251454122972702097885189709416793261466352127405210396738674577897331030606857378830797836225
Hg2B5a28487802368158210600020450002097000199200019830001314000113100010830001007000831000746000857000729000818000616820590790
Hg6Ca122682893510172197556700045081341378535023726731010981794675774436028945650227281712781030801630
Hg6Cb10934941105504115193911359981287143129343713062741129008109727010320679748679050298574277303875938594346131159914126451
Hg6Cc2892692267127324043272114231198254818794191620132113052186331762774459859936686827195620016813576814619911853290344

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
HCB1A2b112584233811459921511172032558555627463262222928568582732541261926020834877112417382953397539 2848210101
HCB1A3bii6549757431828295419069879587071015676105422410964601134538117181512011641296460136082214404591454694149576715357451539023
HCBGRIDTOTAL1199730065122151572112484504646316621747720351674928045758906026774763861691379543163314985734240977322336270212807430622829784180809941324865013413147
HCBNATIONALTOTAL1199730065122151572112484504646316621747720351674928045758906026774763861691379543163314985734240977322336270212807430622829784180809941324865013413147
HCBNECDTOTAL1199730065122151572112484504646316621747720351674928045758906026774763861691379543163314985734240977322336270212807430622829784180809941324865013413147
HCBSNAPTOTAL1199730065122151572112484504646316621747720351674928045758906026774763861691379543163314985734240977322336270212807430622829784180809941324865013413147