Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FI

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2d	21100	20900	33100	32200	35000	30700	34600	31000	35300	6900	19433	17471	16712	16462	17496	15197	16917	16137	15397	13006	17731
NOx	1A4cii	16405	16333	15836	15317	15063	14852	15480	15768	15928	15326	14756	14076	13421	12803	12021	11036	10382	9737	9106	8518	5818
NOx	1A5b	59000	55200	45500	46900	45600	45400	48500	48500	48900	53400					20	428	395	423	451	435	1421
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	229187	209429	209429	201790	196662	191888	185133	180261	175524	170967	164562	163855	158436	154132	150457	139388	136649	132572	116455	109724	115180
SOx	1A3di(i)	23262	22242	25207	18072	1136	8466	9662	1119	15253	16744	19241	17229	21435	21562	18242	17915	19460	15000	12870	7920	5880
SOx	2A7d											4013	3690	3704	17	82	96	73	94	56	2	1
SOx	2C5a																2564		23	80	102	11
SOx	2C5e																		3204	3451	2632	3
SOx	2G	50300	43600	35900	28600	24100	23000	19900	18840	18100	19100								1	3	7	0
SOx	FUTOTAL	262514	197951	144134	125471	118259	99075	109129	103932	93765	91018	79307	85962	80288	99676	83931	69248	84306	82736	70121	59239	66788
SOx	GRIDTOTAL	262514	197951	144134	125471	118259	99075	109129	103932	93765	91018	79307	85962	80288	99676	83931	69248	84306	82736	70121	59239	66788
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	262514	197951	144134	125471	118259	99075	109129	103932	93765	91018	79307	85962	80288	99676	83931	69248	84306	82736	70121	59239	66788
NH3	4B1a	12613	11465	11047	11170	11165	10706	10556	10802	10723	10758	10911	10908	10933	10723	10684	10656	10478	10169	10030	10233	10388
NH3	4B9b	544	558	533	611	649	686	600	722	928	1004	1318	895	947	1053	964	940	916	914	1098	960	743
CO	1A1a	5600	6400	6600	7500	8600	7700	8300	8700	9300	9400	9701	10864	13051	19359	13869	12474	14356	11948	13628	11698	13573
CO	1A2d	40800	48400	43700	43200	29700	31300	42900	63500	57300	96300	29524	26903	26336	23932	25080	23727	26473	25972	21289	14963	18611
CO	1A3di(i)	3195	3064	3950	3423	39637	2812	2798	38620	2655	2785	3089	2804	2858	2710	2114	2062	2260	1960	1790	1080	990
CO	1A5b	27000	26900	27600	28100	28100	28000	28400	28400	30200	122400					3998	2969	6810	9705	9239	1534	874
CO	FUTOTAL	721119	691375	665922	640870	631927	623286	644691	661934	642611	764466	609862	602718	597709	577461	565313	529876	507193	501363	485647	465489	484920
CO	GRIDTOTAL	721119	691375	665922	640870	631927	623286	644691	661934	642611	764466	609862	602718	597709	577461	565313	529876	507193	501363	485647	465489	484920
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	721119	691375	665922	640870	631927	623286	644691	661934	642611	764466	609862	602718	597709	577461	565313	529876	507193	501363	485647	465489	484920

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM10	1A4ci	1935	2183	2231	2294	2308	724	55	780	745	771	849
TSP	1A4ci	2082	2327	2345	2405	2427	2375	71	2509	2407	2598	2889

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	1693600	2308700	2047900	1666000	2517700	1195600	1373000	1409300	1594000	1981000	2924000	2688000	2759000	5987000	2572878	1976336	2070333	1928000	2272054	1832575	3234770
Pb	1A2a											1029000	7094000	843407	75000	779402	740346	737980	715902	679010	755676	619406
Pb	1A2c											1124000	1092000	1690048	1156000	1073076	91749	81865	73571	71191	39954	44800
Pb	1A3bi	189000000	168000000	117999000	48999000	1000000
Pb	1A3bvi	10833975	10549657	10503419	10500304	10466706	10584853	10735286	11069629	11329377	10078981	8589521	7149495	5635560	4039961	2382722	643708	650336	664394	662641	654510	664749
Pb	1A4ai	12223500	7445500	6165600	1765000	2710600	888600	1682600	1083700	796700	880500	549000	640000	673015	784000	299277	282087	300414	303012	290189	285820	319000
Pb	1A4bi											7992000	8459000	8582060	8428000	2003830	1924620	1955065	1929147	2211717	2400944	2738000
Pb	1A5b	1690000	1470000	1379000	1329800	1140000	1070000	1060000	1070000	1074200							1501	3678				134000
Pb	2C1											7587000	1707000	7581000	4968000	5894664	1827931	5446894	2097408	685410	1605346	3561944
Pb	2C5a																863298		161000	8060	3920	3090
Pb	2G	115176800	62285200	40334500	39707600	45736800	45552500	23777500	8163800	7921000	5431200									2930		2183
Cd	1A2a											32000	117000	18659	2000	17873	17070	18281	16651	9417	16000	14000
Cd	1A2d	438900	500400	338900	201900	280000	321900	313000	320400	501100	243800	380000	336000	391741	340000	397423	357463	410774	331334	281895	206000	253000
Cd	1A4ai	265500	168300	88400	80600	89800	218600	251100	22420	220600	245200	12000	15000	15311	17000	16353	18051	17145	16689	16700	18000	19928
Cd	2C1											253000	507000	268300	252000	445099	84072	285149		17936	51000	143000
Cd	2C5a																245509			770	1000	1000
Cd	2G	5461300	2673500	2276400	2331800	1553700	1011400	794300	392900	440600	15700									2707		2000
Cd	FUTOTAL	6340747	3495009	3013988	2808514	2191111	1650447	1481124	862868	1257634	565555	1291197	1652293	1274693	1184450	1494753	1306044	1292785	957202	1229410	1291000	1413667
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	6340747	3495009	3013988	2808514	2191111	1650447	1481124	862868	1257634	565555	1291197	1652293	1274693	1184450	1494753	1306044	1292785	957202	1229410	1291000	1413667
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6340747	3495009	3013988	2808514	2191111	1650447	1481124	862868	1257634	565555	1291197	1652293	1274693	1184450	1494753	1306044	1292785	957202	1229410	1291000	1413667
Hg	1A2d	97100	122700	132200	131900	131000	131300	117900	104600	139000	63500	145000	184000	160740	146000	141002	122743	142421	126503	119523	103976	118870
Hg	2A1															28000	15818	51600	7457	1631	24374	29095
Hg	2C1											33000	47000	32000	177000	156241	344641	404141	325448	292540	240930	301630
Hg	2G	402000	368900	266000	84000	93500	210700	225000	85100	134100	858000									2197		1454
Hg	6Cb	315200	128000	40100	94300	65100	51900	38000	48200	43000	600	36000	4000	37991	5000	1937	2892	6482	1102	5533	3412
Hg	FUTOTAL	1145438	881589	753867	624744	672465	728831	780364	586885	564715	1167611	591974	749361	677427	797408	743883	850778	996799	831287	782078	769321	897735
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1145438	881589	753867	624744	672465	728831	780364	586885	564715	1167611	591974	749361	677427	797408	743883	850778	996799	831287	782078	769321	897735
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1145438	881589	753867	624744	672465	728831	780364	586885	564715	1167611	591974	749361	677427	797408	743883	850778	996799	831287	782078	769321	897735

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A4ci											1131	1503	1570	1607	1608	118	2	122	117	130	144
DIOX	2C1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2867
HCB	1A4bi	2275380	2302831	2311789	2326581	2341029	2426765	2539265	2545000	2570000	2510355	2451000	2551000	2588000	2575000	2556000	2539005	2581230	2550157	2945782	3195782	3648750
HCB	2B5a	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	29000000	8190000	2480000	460000	16700000	23010000	26600000	30700000	10300000	20000000	1500000