Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FI

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A3di(i)50203479145963248963 3265035890 407524246447621413714691446612364673534838910321302636016450
NOx1A4ai1360097008100790088008800870095007500136001571165216891858184715591736175413771512
NMVOC1A3e          47364836493240344082649512430  0
SOx1A3di(i)23262222422520718072113684669662111915253167441924117229214352156218242179151946015000128707920
SOx2A7d          4013369037041782967394562
SOxGRIDTOTAL2587021940731403001216521141389510910522699824897968699679018850477916898814835176915185102827377011959239
SOxNATIONALTOTAL2587021940731403001216521141389510910522699824897968699679018850477916898814835176915185102827377011959239
NH32C5e          8006007786786781195428 00
NH34B1318451488163816401944218025242655247222712113186722812484250927412796256522671587
NH34B1a1261311572112401131211171107061078010986110041092910911108791090410699106191065610483101791016510413
CO1A1a56006400660075008600770083008700930094009701108641305119359138691247414356119481362811698
CO1A2fi4080048400437004320029700313004290063500573009630016738201332340216726303162445225394120041179810197
CO1A3di(i)3195306439503423396372812279838620265527853089280428582710211420622260196017901080
CO1A3e          29880307423161924390249623388237111  7
CO1A5b270002690027600281002810028000284002840030200122400    399829696810970592391534

PM (Unit = Mg)
  2000200120022003200420052006200720082009
PM2.52C5e127658128011649559927211184
PM101A4ci1935218322312294230872455780745771
PM102A7d900100611001386124510341901 14
PM102C5e133903179617181892143615861895
TSP1A4ci20822327234524052427237571250924072598
TSP2A7d231723972638350930882583424537335
TSP2C5e264415572817306934052137309442199

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A1a16936002308700204790016660002517700119560013730001409300159400019810002924000268800027590005987000257287819763362070333192800022720541832575
Pb1A2a          1029000709400084340775000779402740346737980715902679010755676
Pb1A2c          112400010920001690048115600010730769174981865735717119139954
Pb1A3bvi1083397510549657105034191050030410466706105848531073528611069629113293771007898185895217149495563556040399612382722643708650336664394662641654510
Pb1A4ai12223500744550061656001765000271060088860016826001083700796700880500549000640000673015784000299277282087300414303012290189285820
Pb1A4bi          7992000845900085820608428000200383019246201955065192914722117172400944
Pb1A5b169000014700001379000132980011400001070000106000010700001074200      15013678   
Pb2C1                 20974086854101605346
Pb2C5e          7587000170700075810004968000589466426915295446894566232170652271610
Pb2G115176800622852004033450039707600457368004555250023777500816380079210005431200        2930 
Cd1A2a          3200011700018659200017873170701828116651941716209
Cd1A2fi438900500400338900201900280000321900313000320400501100243800890001480001411367200015130112832212584111415911133778583
Cd1A4ai2655001683008840080600898002186002511002242022060024520012000150001531117000163531805117145166891670017880
Cd2A7d          400040001519000865110062008 180000240000
Cd2C5e          253000507000268300252000445099329782285149 5795854880
Cd2G54613002673500227640023318001553700101140079430039290044060015700        2707 
CdFUTOTAL                 110930812294101223264
CdGRIDTOTAL633790034923002900000280580021911111650447148062486286812576345655551291197164829312746931184450149475313060441275640110930812294101223264
CdNATIONALTOTAL634074734950093013988280851421911111650447148062486286812576345655551291197164829312746931184450149475313060441275640110930812294101223264
CdSNAPTOTAL633790034923002900000280580021911111650447148062486286812576345655551291197164829312746931184450149475313060441275640   
Hg2A1              2800015818516007457163124374
Hg2C5e          3300047000320001770001562413509244041417149  
Hg2G402000368900266000840009350021070022500085100134100858000        2197 
Hg6Cb31520012800040100943006510051900380004820043000600360004000379915000193728926482110255333412
HgGRIDTOTAL112900086530080000060860067246572883174236458688556471511676115919747493616774278014087438838507781000792831287782078769321
HgNATIONALTOTAL114543888158975386762474467246572883174236458688556471511676115919747493616774278014087438838507781000792831287782078769321
HgSNAPTOTAL112900086530080000060860067246572883174236458688556471511676115919747493616774278014087438838507781000792   

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX1A2fi800800100011001200120010001100100010008154496812252427288398235212226
HCB1A4bi22753802302831231178923265812341029242676525392652545000257000025103552451000255100025880002575000255600025390052581230255015729457823195782
HCB2B5a290000002900000029000000290000002900000029000000290000002900000029000000290000002900000081900002480000460000167000002301000026600000307000001030000020000000
HCB2C5e56764835668937647894463507975998391562252380241278384193826910980252168488149891248984945318379131810662969518418361801866098874261726
HCBGRIDTOTAL4126242541160704416287774150700740710662405279154307020143676965436937024291683843314900238007311729306414638726305991563566796942537533444455192560974333923761
HCBNATIONALTOTAL4126242541160704416287774150700740710662405279154307020143676965436937024291683843314900238007311729306414638726305991563566796942537533444455192560974333923761