Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: FI

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2007

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2007

PMs:

2000 – 2007

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
NMVOC3A152600486004320039700380003550033400326003290032200181681688315769146841456713969145131308
SOx2A7d          4013369037041782967394
NH32C5e          80060077867867811954280
NH34B1a18100140771348813523131261255812354123021206611715114601117710955105171021810041974710037
NH34B1b10017105221043910191101438978917392138950824884048389838882818003794879709279
NH34B69417557717697584258163778818829019209489931007105210901122
NH34B9d17851377134913681391157934661680159613511347173714091358199119941967403
NH34D1a215318721509155515641807166115661571153015471451140614711422137513621879
CO1A1a5600640066007500860077008300870093009400970110864130511935913869124741435611948
CO1A5b270002690027600281002810028000284002840030200122400    3998296968109705

PM (Unit = Mg)
  20002001200220032004200520062007
PM2.52C5e1276581280116495599272111
PM102C5e1339031796171818921436158618

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Pb1A1a169400023090002048000166600025180001196000137300014090001594000198100029240002688000275900059870002573000197600020700001927543
Pb1A2a          1029000709400084340775000779000740000738000715902
Pb1A2c          11240001092000169004811560001073000920008200073571
Pb1A3aii(i)1113000972000887000886000836000794000796000771000755000719000791402653000537731539000456000389000389000 
Pb1A3bvi              1822000201600020009
Pb1A4ai12224000744600061660001765000271100088900016830001084000797000881000549000640000673015784000299000282000300000303012
Pb1A4bi          79920008459000858206084280002004000192500019550001929147
Pb1A4ci          95700010550001079128110300036400035100015000375915
Pb1A5b169000014700001379000133000011400001070000106000010700001074000      20004000 
Pb2C5e          7587000170700075810004968000589500026920005447000566232
Cd1A2a          3200011700018659200018000170001800016651
Cd1A4ai266000168000880008100090000219000251000220002210002450001200015000153111700016000180001700016689
Cd2C5e          253000507000268300252000445000330000285000152107
Cd2G54610002674000227600023320001554000101100079400039300044100016000        
CdNATIONALTOTAL6338000349200029000002806000218800016480001478000860000125500055900012880001649000127132611810001492000130300012890001105610
Hg2A1              2800016000520007457
Hg2C5e          3300047000320001770001560003510004040007149
Hg2G402000369000266000840009400021100022500085000134000858000        
Hg6Ca315000128000400009400065000520003800048000430001000360004000379915000200030006000 
HgNATIONALTOTAL11290008650008000006090006560007130007260005700005480001149000574000731000658622778000744000851000981000811932

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
DIOX1A1a1300160017002100220024002500270025002600230229043448457636721591536193419
DIOX6Ca2000590030003000300038001900220022002200282219222544245916741111441
HCB2B5a29000000290000002900000029000000290000002900000029000000290000002900000029000000290000008190000248000046000016700000230100002660000030700000
HCB2C5e5676000566900064790006351000599800056230008024000838400082690008025000848814989120008494531837900081070006952000836200086609
HCB6Ca23840002387000238500023800002661000293200029490003180000328800027990002813206352000030685182527000254000024880004105000273