Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A1a	228321	236745	250475	244017	253343	270429	229917	281126	254654	290376	311831	281051	325484	301602	324200	328960	300458	313603	205745	168671	113311
NOx	1A3bi	330109	347574	378670	360608	346581	307988	307020	291013	275529	261422	242323	230291	225493	222043	210650	205740	197841	191702	178303	170831	171350
NOx	1A3biii	246208	261003	270054	264424	268608	266516	266404	241339	250473	256151	271400	264064	263871	262000	286197	279172	266627	259706	228417	196814	171069
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	1223982	1266540	1304730	1269824	1274385	1264608	1201665	1237314	1218519	1254756	1281974	1252956	1289301	1273139	1315988	1305413	1252248	1245783	1060894	943673	880902
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	1286639	1329829	1367235	1334411	1357163	1342949	1293068	1312407	1293616	1346454	1372325	1344386	1383219	1371969	1412893	1401523	1353796	1354962	1171117	1052728	974450
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	1291531	1335130	1373326	1339557	1362388	1348482	1299777	1320187	1301405	1355496	1381388	1353828	1391873	1380672	1423276	1412787	1364905	1366167	1181266	1061852	983170
SOx	1A2fi	129558	140303	131192	129637	134712	128404	104611	127683	120761	113118	98829	104055	98701	70964	65761	66229	67006	68259	66990	95298	114429
NH3	2B5a	15096	14800	12327	10218	13719	13924	15346	16455	17308	17646	14836	14082	14302	14474	13718	13488	12842	14051	11357	8104	12187
CO	1A2a	96693	97805	82092	81731	82063	82059	76200	51350	39928	71664	84624	87787	89529	87978	96984	98541	93331	96577	93623	71301	87696
CO	2C2	49767	38819	26361	41623	54769	64437	69721	84210	94790	85636	98554	100956	107133	111221	119320	126644	124712	133335	137173	49392	118692

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A2a	49573108	50971390	45738970	47229102	48605760	32377662	32001436	19629690	13810947	19833747	25837032	25826126	25834830	24465696	26552437	25922928	26372263	28336744	27637638	20768009	25633940
Cd	1A1a	2183976	2564999	3454536	2193682	2147567	2727148	2229613	2098440	2677908	3730553	3589519	3924784	4513515	3332314	3433095	3533629	2845950	2226371	2083334	1832758	4307552
Cd	1A1b	1846648	1917253	2020330	1981959	1991954	1983592	2049317	2146615	2122335	2145450	2160255	2061632	2003581	1914875	1844634	1803388	1796764	1813995	1697743	1396974	1183512
Cd	1A2a	1238820	1270734	1149065	1187795	1244757	818292	788141	462046	282942	318456	390827	383155	392491	374202	404034	386420	386818	414471	402518	301968	356929
Cd	2C1	2253847	2247329	2230937	2294514	2426459	2600888	2391397	2899491	3168213	3213713	3503210	3690269	3696550	3803161	4096555	4075492	4416673	4440123	4351487	3364868	3720075
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	25723350	24865393	23347035	20864483	21940892	21998268	19933039	19746157	19946851	20036485	18833723	18820920	19443041	17708275	17087029	17230837	16712018	13813995	13362730	11470012	14014425
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	26782243	25954470	24488885	22023087	23126445	23202569	21182281	21057410	21325575	21542915	20372963	20436883	20990095	19492689	18902937	18891212	18310585	15393167	14972089	13025243	15512520
Hg	1A1b	1846191	1917121	2019950	1981587	1991353	1983144	2049041	2147165	2122926	2146071	2160790	2062345	1992517	1902910	1838345	1797219	1785398	1810664	1695469	1396364	1184918
Hg	1A2fi	1563609	1488267	1368978	1322606	1454930	1438327	1340180	1367120	1472516	1453414	1412010	1409287	1409183	1375390	1334019	1329367	1329172	877958	839445	674865	777888
Hg	2B5a	1880087	1822601	1659437	1659437	1742004	1804666	1797608	1177871	935821	986731	778146	683647	683983	686275	669756	613699	509867	482886	394403	340710	284210
Hg	6A	1489760	1818203	2090333	2019870	1636341	681148	458118	370282	331747	305068	181074	180666	92994	108307	94705	92670	90636	85411	82490	79361	75933
Hg	6Cc	709815	476115	519594	416646	442866	203727	213789	60633	63279	75102	74724	74832	74778	30000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A2a	35547	36712	32925	33720	33967	23841	21827	15308	12689	20312	26594	26625	26264	24419	25984	25169	25683	27292	26864	21175	25794
HCB	2E	323786000	220736000	63388000	262686000	198910000	147630000	137012000	196986000	223882000	173418000	177072000	159756000	166784000	195160000	119426000	131134000	17632000	28264000	26536000	9299032
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	509689353	405984159	248164308	452392000	399312522	365838529	338084170	440921911	490088212	443597076	471352518	469857894	477569632	515408267	464044923	474097188	389142245	402058583	393156230	293686399	313907737
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	509842930	406126301	248325406	452538747	399468218	365938966	338249274	441091840	490259622	443787810	471527449	470042422	477744732	516580039	464268686	474380806	389302359	402241737	393274531	293938887	314003923