Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: ES

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A1a228321236745250475244017253343270432229920281129254657290383311839281057325492301607324210328970300469313611205753168681
NOx1A2fi121134116441105536101387111860116633110283119258124184126820127616130508128952133949134263134595129281140198124806110324
NOx1A3bi327660344889375937357738343897307988307020291013275529261422242323230291225493222043210650205740197841191702178303171902
NOx1A3biii244937259425269018263352267418266516266404241339250473256151271400264064263871262000286197279172266627259706228417195622
NOxGRIDTOTAL1210603125094912895271255468125996812641691201039123356712147311250758127652112469981283988126747713098081299726124692912453841062537946338
NOxNATIONALTOTAL12826081324477136241713306831353109134264112924821308679128999713426051367011133857413780051366565140695813960501348692135485611730081055692
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL12865381329152136788713353441357922134782812988161316059129738113514301375977134800913867141375282141741114074341360023136630811832181064878
NMVOC1A3di(i)1123812097120651128110325103211498918341202111965120456230502373624252250702758828755293242988729741
NMVOC3A19777290190830167351871878697716774879794791428046785340810657942876738734866889366701643535500742583
NMVOC3A2721687097667307598436847874785940149604710105210401211049411324911582412183112023111680111693812034610773979123
NMVOC6D83389675110131235112827133031377914256143231569817070178451974420243201061974721324230522312424102
SOx1A1a145901014375721423610127843311971501057920943152110602499403810406499650269332531070098893280947274928732829435822374187858112517
SOx1A2fi129558140303131192129637134712128404104611127683120761113118988291040559870170964657616622967006682596698998066
SOx1A3di(i)233136255492250080252390233766225412325382394474457330442888470338533732552882566244587162647600673968685068683104153562
SOx1A3dii3650836483364454101245554371113648527462255373313535784435154757249375503115254257765681576905015648
SOxGRIDTOTAL209172520973762056582193323918795471730160151524517033231549709155968514193531393846149986912322011276555123472911289891121100481854402608
SOxNATIONALTOTAL217628921760402128758200493319528351791434156358617406701586628160189214627681438923154145412773851320587127457411704121170467533429430472
SOxUNFCCCTOTAL217658121763802129147200525719531621791778156399617411361587079160241014632981439479154196012778871321185127523711711001171173534059431002
NH34B1b1210013735138861391714731163731727418580192812017219377199702108121275223772185121716227812053618469
CO1A2a9669397805820928173182063820597620051350399287166484624877878952987978969849854193331965779362371133
CO2C1191938192427178758190798196182171047157026181990196418195570205951212089210350207579226318224332222327235166229587176258
CO2C2497673881926361416235476964437697218421094790856369855410095610713311122111932012664412471213333513717349392

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A2a4957310850971390457389704722910248605760323776623200143619629690138109471983374725837032258261262583483024465696265524372592292826372263283367442763763820767907
Pb1A2fi5026817448923445479384834701232650888221516136225127766553892398555968875608713959066316628240196543734665715347652293166490847364312768620798656033512352890875
Pb2C14443950944444883439776974531737647837580493501024538923855040548601476996101670966523205700888897020483172198502777779237737528583867797843106288263159263894947
Cd1A1a21839762564999345453621936822147567272714822296132098440267790837305533589519392478445135153332314343309535336292845950222637120833341608046
Cd1A1b18466481917253202033019819591991954198359220493172146615212233521454502160255206163220035811914877182412018033861796764181399516977431396974
Cd1A2a12388201270734114906511877951244757818292788141462046282942318456390827383155392491374202404034386420386818414471402518301918
Cd2C122538472247329223093722945142426459260088823913972899491316821332137133503210369026936965503803161409655540754924416673444012343514873364868
CdGRIDTOTAL2572100224862935233445992086190821938224219984411993323619746318199468042003265818805654187862081940801817681031170332661719607116676467137844771333092511426655
CdNATIONALTOTAL2678236325954776244892572202352123126926232028772118253821057603213257072153934620345116204024402095535319465745188494721885675618275348153639811494062012756863
Hg1A1b18461911917121201995019815871991353198314420490412147165212292621460712160790206234619925171902911181783217972171785398181066416954691396359
Hg1A2fi15636091488267136897813226061454930143832713401801367120147251614534141412010140928714091831375390133401913293671329172880716843062676548
Hg2B5a18800871822601165943716594371742004180466617976081177871935821986731778146683647683983686275669756613699509867482886394403340710
Hg2C112626741257496124954712843361358951147721713579901646191179857618241951988154209397720975182157298232358823116752504655251816024678121908287
Hg6A1489760181820320903332019870163634168114845811837028233174730506818107418066692994108307947059267090636854118249079361
Hg6Cc70981547611551959441664644286620372721378960633632797510274724748327477830000      
HgNATIONALTOTAL14568590151781931642811714867220148446671469565113400144114764051207105512959990126096871269891813310302120828131205421711990588111707651031126294447367701089

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX1A2a3554736712329253372033967238412182715308126892031226594266252626424419259842516925683272922686421162
DIOX1A2b1250613678137471420214734151252127423826290383085733239307813349035849396134226645542474674417731016
DIOX2C11468614627145541495415835172881590119284210752138223314245652460725328272862714529424295792899022416
HCB2C1183572500182842500181927500186922500197937350216095900198762175241055075263439400267269250291423725307065300307584850316604225341075800339308775367793875369731375362370750280203000
HCB2E323786000220736000633880002626860001989100001476300001370120001969860002238820001734180001770720001597560001667840001951600001194260001311340001763200028264000265360009299032
HCBGRIDTOTAL509689353405984159248164308452392000399312522365838529338084170440921911490088212443597076471352518469857894477569632515408267464044923474097188389142245402058583393156230293686399
HCBNATIONALTOTAL509842930406126301248325406452538747399468218365938966338249274441091840490259622443787810471527449470042422477744732516580039464268686474380806389302359402241737393274531293938887