Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2fi	5600	5450	3100	3060	2560	2340	2250	1940	1320	980	2470	2570	2160	2370	2190	2140	2030	2060	2320	1333	1617
NOx	1A3bi	13082	13149	5192	5828	9221	8243	9011	9326	6280	7844	7765	8564	7153	5968	5310	5304	5370	5156	4313	3924	3561
NOx	1A3dii	260	260	185	1372	148	148	260	223	223	185	185	260	408	334	297	297	408	630	742	297	297
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	78260	72030	45890	39240	43540	41260	43900	43450	39660	38760	37630	39340	38260	37940	37720	36690	35780	38810	35890	30550	35990
NMVOC	1A3bi	10315	10552	3986	4618	6827	6314	6572	7603	5346	6681	6482	6806	5604	4557	3833	3800	3641	3324	2718	2456	2130
NMVOC	FUTOTAL	70250	66912	45071	37558	41341	50155	52669	54636	46333	46152	46294	45517	44945	44288	43873	41121	39521	40663	38298	36672	38185
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	70250	66912	45071	37558	41341	50155	52669	54636	46333	46152	46294	45517	44945	44288	43873	41121	39521	40663	38298	36672	38185
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	70250	66912	45071	37558	41341	50155	52669	54636	46358	46152	46294	45517	44945	44288	43873	41121	39521	40663	38298	36672	38185
NH3	4B8	2995	2528	1707	1395	1498	1422	1309	1432	1462	1171	1273	1300	1360	1320	1262	1282	1339	1485	1322	1311	1357
CO	1A3bi	102595	105877	38333	44606	63488	58314	60440	73013	53490	67414	58170	61580	50915	41790	34637	33920	31926	29136	24015	21734	19216

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
TSP	2A7d	550	910	1010	1143	1260	1140	1160	1360	1067	1	1

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A2fi	62460000	61070000	40790000	29950000	42650000	25340000	7770000	837000	753000	613000	780000	1210000	1260000	1390000	850000	950000	550000	690000	1122463	749315	744915
Pb	1A3bi	49969508	50380255	19444436	22189289	35173638	21130891	18449734	7651621	4121243	5593965	4219169	5075016	4689099	1755421	1686239	1769566	1130400	1192062	1248781	1101370	251090
Pb	1A3biii	17400454	10710592	8089716	7882035	5814144	1807179	1385114	748261	567172	654885	316732	263502	199238	48444	22711	17278	15555	12713	10448	6208	1266
Cd	1A1a	1130000	1000000	870000	660000	650000	620000	630000	610000	550000	530000	500000	470000	480000	560000	540000	520000	510000	610000	522612	425437	612582
Cd	1A2fi	3230000	3160000	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	30000	40000	50000	30000	10000	20000	10000	30000	56947	21297	20462
Cd	FUTOTAL	4402169	4201380	2996165	2216685	2867133	1956265	1046771	1067082	1006333	946434	561490	547704	568495	628323	588354	578625	549250	679727	612001	478601	667685
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	4402169	4201380	2996165	2216685	2867133	1956265	1046771	1067082	1006333	946434	561490	547704	568495	628323	588354	578625	549250	679727	612001	478601	667685
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4402169	4201380	2996165	2216685	2867133	1956265	1046771	1067082	1006333	946434	561490	547704	568495	628323	588354	578625	549250	679727	612001	478601	667685
Hg	1A1a	1010000	900000	760000	590000	580000	550000	560000	560000	500000	480000	470000	460000	460000	550000	520000	500000	500000	610000	519399	416688	605899
Hg	FUTOTAL	1120940	1021130	830387	640419	640435	600308	600466	600292	530112	500025	505048	500064	500009	580201	540142	520127	520065	650064	573222	443160	632208
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1120940	1021130	830387	640419	640435	600308	600466	600292	530112	500025	505048	500064	500009	580201	540142	520127	520065	650064	573222	443160	632208
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1120940	1021130	830387	640419	640435	600308	600466	600292	530112	500025	505048	500064	500009	580201	540142	520127	520065	650064	573222	443160	632208

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	6Cb											120	140	80		160	120	10	260	430	508	255