Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A2fi	5600	5450	3100	3060	2560	2340	2250	1940	1320	980	2470	2570	2160	2370	2190	2140	2030	2060	2320	1333
NOx	1A3bi	13082	13149	5192	5828	9221	8243	9011	9326	6280	7844	7765	8564	7153	5968	5310	5304	5370	5156	4313	3924
NOx	1A3dii	260	260	185	1372	148	148	260	223	223	185	185	260	408	334	297	297	408	630	742	297
NMVOC	1A3bi	10315	10552	3986	4618	6827	6314	6572	7603	5346	6681	6482	6806	5604	4557	3833	3800	3641	3325	2718	2456
NMVOC	FUTOTAL	70356	66997	45138	37620	41355	50168	52681	54650	46376	46167	46389	45528	44969	44300	43894	41159	39549	40687	38305	36282
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	70356	66997	45138	37620	41355	50168	52681	54650	46376	46167	46389	45528	44969	44300	43894	41159	39549	40687	38305	36282
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	70356	66997	45138	37620	41355	50168	52681	54650	46376	46167	46389	45528	44969	44300	43894	41159	39549	40687	38305	36282
NH3	4B8	2995	2528	1707	1395	1498	1422	1309	1432	1462	1171	1273	1300	1360	1320	1262	1282	1339	1485	1322	1311
CO	1A3bi	102595	105877	38333	44606	63488	58314	60440	73013	53490	67414	58170	61580	50915	41790	34637	33920	31926	29136	24015	21734

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
TSP	2A7d	550	910	1010	1143	1260	1140	1160			1

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A2fi	62460000	61070000	40790000	29950000	42650000	25340000	7770000	837000	753000	613000	780000	1210000	1260000	1390000	850000	950000	550000	690000	1122463	749315
Pb	1A3bi	49969508	50380255	19444436	22013242	34892749	20764163	17875463	6619086	3361987	4630505	3392396	3886900	3601274	1338028	1272950	1323766	853244	899945	898908	826782
Pb	1A3biii	17400454	10710592	8089716	8008824	6081492	1779140	1345440	649405	464897	544940
Cd	1A1a	1130000	1000000	870000	660000	650000	620000	630000	610000	550000	530000	500000	470000	480000	560000	540000	520000	510000	610000	522612	425437
Cd	1A2fi	3230000	3160000	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	30000	40000	50000	30000	10000	20000	10000	30000	56947	21297
Cd	FUTOTAL	4402068	4201295	2996151	2216693	2867138	1956346	1046819	1067117	1006459	946477	561529	547767	568642	628475	588554	578848	549499	679995	612259	478821
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	4402068	4201295	2996151	2216693	2867138	1956346	1046819	1067117	1006459	946477	561529	547767	568642	628475	588554	578848	549499	679995	612259	478821
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4402068	4201295	2996151	2216693	2867138	1956346	1046819	1067117	1006459	946477	561529	547767	568642	628475	588554	578848	549499	679995	612259	478821
Hg	1A1a	1010000	900000	760000	590000	580000	550000	560000	560000	500000	480000	470000	460000	460000	550000	520000	500000	500000	610000	519399	416688
Hg	FUTOTAL	1120940	1021130	830387	640419	640434	600308	600466	600292	530111	500024	505047	500063	500008	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000	573090	442989
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1120940	1021130	830387	640419	640434	600308	600466	600292	530111	500024	505047	500063	500008	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000	573090	442989
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1120940	1021130	830387	640419	640434	600308	600466	600292	530111	500024	505047	500063	500008	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000	573090	442989