Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A2fi	5600	5450	3100	3060	2560	2340	2250	1940	1320	980	2470	2570	2160	2370	2190	2140	2030	2060	2320
NOx	1A3bi	13082	11947	5983	6687	8586	8430	8233	8405	8087	6964	6514	7795	6551	5823	5087	5219	5370	5140	4311
NOx	1A3dii	260	260	185	1372	148	148	260	223	223	185	260	260	408	334	297	297	408	630	742
NMVOC	1A3bi	10123	9692	4846	5469	7389	6349	6487	6721	6069	5347	4954	5812	4828	4293	3622	3680	3589	3264	2667
NMVOC	2B5a	13300	12330	8500	3500	2670	3530	2460	2390	1650	790	840	770	710	1065	960	710	400	110	24
NMVOC	6D				33589											40738	37067	34551		5
NH3	4B9b	1140	980	600	570	550	510	410	460	460	430	140	370	370	320	380	310	300	240	246
NH3	6D															9673	9261	9271		0
CO	1A3bi	102595	96436	47038	51786	68424	60399	61935	64266	57727	51098	47392	54418	45841	40434	33677	33601	32082	29137	23990

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A2fi	62460000	61070000	40790000	29950000	42650000	25340000	7770000	837000	753000	613000	780000	1210000	1260000	1390000	850000	950000	550000	690000	1122463
Pb	1A3bi	4331000	3960000	1762000	1774000	2153000	2163000	2064000	1927000	1497000	1092000	782000	898000	831000	802000	765000	798000	859000	906000	905000
Pb	6D															35065000	33757000	30935000	220000
Cd	1A1a	1130000	1000000	870000	660000	650000	620000	630000	610000	550000	530000	500000	470000	480000	560000	540000	520000	510000	610000	522612
Cd	1A2fi	3230000	3160000	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	30000	40000	50000	30000	10000	20000	10000	30000	56947
Cd	FUTOTAL	4402000	4201000	2995000	2216024	2866000	1955000	1046002	1067001	1007000	947001	562000	548000	571000	628000	589000	582000	553000	684000	616523
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	4402000	4201000	2995000	2216024	2866000	1955000	1046002	1067001	1007000	947001	562000	548000	571000	628000	589000	582000	553000	684000	616523
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4402000	4201000	2995000	2216024	2866000	1955000	1046002	1067001	1007000	947001	562000	548000	571000	628000	589000	582000	553000	684000	616523
Hg	1A1a	1010000	900000	760000	590000	580000	550000	560000	560000	500000	480000	470000	460000	460000	550000	520000	500000	500000	610000	519399
Hg	FUTOTAL	1121000	1021000	830000	640000	640000	600000	600000	600000	530000	500000	505000	500000	500000	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000	573090
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1121000	1021000	830000	640000	640000	600000	600000	600000	530000	500000	505000	500000	500000	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000	573090
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1121000	1021000	830000	640000	640000	600000	600000	600000	530000	500000	505000	500000	500000	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000	573090

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
DIOX	1A2fi	1440	1430	1080	930	950	920	910	660	340	440	530	760	720	774	800	670	790	930	596
DIOX	1A3bi	216	194	94	101	128	117	119	124	110	102	96	109	91	76	64	63	61	56	45
DIOX	1A4ai	20	20	20		10	10	10	10	10	10	20	30	40	60	30	470	40	30	22