Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: EE

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	1A3bi	13110	14070	5140	5730	9580	9100	9730	10370	9450	8190	7470	7710	7340	6700	5830	4500	4670	4740
NMVOC	1A3bi	10570	11210	4020	4620	6900	6450	7020	7510	6540	6120	5490	5600	4990	4260	3540	2770	3040	3120
NH3	4B9a	800	680	420	390	380	360	280	320	320	300	680	350	280	290	300	260	200	310
NH3	4B9b	1140	980	600	570	550	510	410	460	460	430	140	370	370	320	380	310	300	240
CO	1A3bi	103240	109560	38010	44170	66570	62170	67930	73870	64230	63240	57980	59720	53940	47830	41270	36490	38480	37440

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1c	200000	200000		90000	90000	100000	30000	30000	30000	30000	2820000	130000	140000	130000	10000	40000	40000	30000
Pb	1A2fi	62460000	61070000	40790000	29950000	42650000	25340000	7770000	8460000	8480000	7520000	780000	1210000	1260000	1390000	850000	950000	550000	690000
Pb	1A3bi	50240000	53230000	19234000	21580000	30220000	19700000	17540000	4130000	3630000	3410000	3307000	3580000	3620000	3653000	3496000	3541000	3752000	1520000
Pb	1A3bii	3560000	3190000	2283000	2290000	2400000	1810000	1550000	1630000	760000	820000	168000	240000	230000	228000	232000	212000	207000	70000
Pb	1A3biii	18570000	8850000	8650000	8610000	11660000	2040000	1750000	1960000	890000	1140000	159000	170000	130000	76000	39000	21000	27000	10000
Cd	1A1a	1130000	1000000	870000	660000	650000	620000	630000	610000	550000	530000	500000	470000	480000	560000	540000	520000	510000	610000
Cd	1A2fi	3230000	3160000	2110000	1540000	2200000	1310000	390000	430000	430000	390000	30000	40000	50000	30000	10000	20000	10000	30000
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	4400000	4200000	2994000	2214000	2867000	1950000	1045000	1065000	1005000	945000	605000	560000	560000	620000	586000	576000	548000	680000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4400000	4200000	2994000	2214000	2867000	1950000	1045000	1065000	1005000	945000	605000	560000	560000	620000	586000	576000	548000	680000
Cd	SNAPTOTAL	4400000	4200000	2994000	2214000	2867000	1950000	1045000	1065000	1005000	945000	605000	560000	560000	620000	586000	576000	548000	680000
Hg	1A1a	1010000	900000	760000	590000	580000	550000	560000	560000	500000	480000	470000	460000	460000	550000	520000	500000	500000	610000
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1120000	1020000	830000	640000	640000	600000	600000	600000	530000	510000	550000	500000	500000	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1120000	1020000	830000	640000	640000	600000	600000	600000	530000	510000	550000	500000	500000	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000
Hg	SNAPTOTAL	1120000	1020000	830000	640000	640000	600000	600000	600000	530000	510000	550000	500000	500000	580000	540000	520000	520000	650000

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DIOX	1A1a	2330	2150	1800	1300	1340	1280	1370	1330	1210	1040	770	710	710	1068	620	510	400	1840
DIOX	1A2fi	1440	1430	1080	930	950	920	910	660	340	440	530	760	720	774	800	670	790	930
DIOX	1A4ai	20	20	20		10	10	10	10	10	10	20	30	40	60	30	470	40	30