Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A2fi	9905	11734	12402	12214	12071	12018	13128	13239	13628	12692	13182	12975	11873	11118	11076	10803	10409	9004	7890	5692	4115
NOx	1A2fii	11081	11282	11440	11558	11677	11882	12080	12248	12425	12262	12096	11869	11617	11214	10744	10664	10807	10667	9978	7137	8540
NOx	1A3bi	61299	63019	61810	59406	56202	51422	47170	43810	39871	35944	32784	30416	28568	26870	24891	22323	20147	19083	17761	16233	15372
NMVOC	1A3bv	28590	28582	28175	25629	24298	21262	17889	16344	13516	11692	7746	6585	5843	4933	4165	3530	2996	2433	1982	1710	1392
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	165794	173404	172825	164020	169306	162767	163221	152347	142662	137127	133704	124803	121925	116027	113607	110301	105397	100457	96233	89127	86158
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	165794	173404	172825	164020	169306	162767	163221	152347	142662	137127	133704	124803	121925	116027	113607	110301	105397	100457	96233	89127	86158
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	165794	173404	172825	164020	169306	162767	163221	152347	142662	137127	133704	124803	121925	116027	113607	110301	105397	100457	96233	89127	86158
SOx	1A4ci	3192	3272	2985	2888	2738	2790	2947	2211	1941	1667	1568	1598	1278	1330	1393	1590	1739	1684	1427	570	1012
SOx	1B2aiv	3335	2713	3147	2526	4266	3022	2614	1982	1441	1359	981	672	332	246	119	347	755	746	931	420	981
NH3	4B1b	10469	10240	10164	9710	8926	8551	8413	8095	7640	7566	7699	7692	7404	7134	6904	5218	5592	6529	6481	6464	6100
CO	1A3bi	416786	432028	414275	398195	365718	343506	331359	296092	273244	238468	215843	206787	187506	177974	154698	147170	128092	112065	101924	88048	81554

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	12005915	11545159	9862263	8577233	6659624	4545178	5118017	3815571	3538247	3154558	2938923	2870106	2631296	2232847	2085816	1721627	471529	536291	407608	351361	360603
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880	991198	929040
Pb	1A3bi	92547673	72073624	65339456	28337286	71497	71807	71876	73565	74586	75515	76120	76645	79186	82750	85789	85899	87750	94129	97730	98162	101075
Pb	1A4bi	666457	797397	770552	794366	743136	700483	677553	682265	623560	621100	716075	822467	844845	954747	1011168	1174138	1295153	1538273	1497456	1492024	1595910
Pb	2A7d	1164000					881618	818671	296750	552880	700064	456486	290382	277357	364911	545120	246989	123261	145251	134989	105824	117007
Pb	2C1	1414544	1395824	1377104	1418836	1459848	1435272	1358720	1248720	990660	1285800	1134080	1487840	628560	669281	696263	967689	606294	578950	620852	264637	277929
Pb	3D3	2853265	3758634	4074911	3594863	4351317	6637135	6101929	4828419	7804684	14736757	3302646	2608889	3238002	4131090	5840234	2528616	2904700	60053	52107	66763	42917
Cd	1A3bi	17676	18812	19825	20396	21138	21264	21303	21855	22171	22295	22316	22311	22857	23489	23940	23558	23644	24597	24861	24469	24475
Cd	1A4ai	30035	28645	24700	20799	18360	13281	11977	10914	6208	11197	5895	8433	2823	6722	1398	1474	895	837	727	351	355
Cd	1A4ci	11984	12422	11498	11043	10819	10606	10406	9572	8841	7814	7234	7129	6086	6120	6288	6966	7516	7314	6440	3726	5166
Hg	1A1a	2448434	2528641	2268019	2183786	1938960	1731703	1809338	1343671	1127514	967353	570881	488444	502009	521765	365048	360707	308772	281033	316239	237559	217427
Hg	1A1b	20093	20997	22101	22815	24246	30112	30823	24200	21720	22449	22308	22635	21821	23540	22677	21762	22811	22613	21053	21878	20152
Hg	1A2fi	138537	163255	167877	170612	169550	161578	174977	192545	195984	178563	177224	176409	172850	173960	193613	182412	191846	198759	169936	110603	40511
Hg	1A3di(i)	26838	25358	29158	39677	46543	49855	14032	44839	49081	43426	41785	33511	30045	30810	24364	22768	27166	26891	25354	16506	21032
Hg	2C1	135694	135694	135694	147738	159783	158457	147000	84000	60600	49500	90000	184400		10872	11732	73952	10846	12071	11227	4898	8845
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	3061947	3176264	2895338	2818700	2570256	2347632	2408640	1870419	1597702	1428706	1051467	1052996	885886	925332	797696	814566	703462	683431	681072	521823	439591
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3061947	3176264	2895338	2818700	2570256	2347632	2408640	1870419	1597702	1428706	1051467	1052996	885886	925332	797696	814566	703462	683431	681072	521823	439591
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	3061947	3176264	2895338	2818700	2570256	2347632	2408640	1870419	1597702	1428706	1051467	1052996	885886	925332	797696	814566	703462	683431	681072	521823	439591