Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A2fi13277154651603216018149451467815630157371605215033149221476313597127461274312324120681054992286764
NOx1A2fii11081112821144011558116771188212080122481242512262120961186911617112141074410664108071066799787137
NOx1A3bi6117862884616795926856047512554699743630396803572732541300712825226582247082226420280198711848517122
NOx1A3bii74347730777980358569840982268004794178677812784476797787779877247826712562355307
NOx1A3biii4035941025400533917541237405034033839836394743982038137375763623136695365043542335587347062972024063
NMVOC3C98299547926489818698910691997818744770706742610463894759589761235935606858394898
SOx1A2fi16296180361676615433137291152011902106651013883757421773964346650721362307296628245342847
SOx1A3di(i)413173327730084584925896565049610755582246756492825536743830300363098226540342835041725652193267383
NH34B1a2512224231228172234721476210542073919793195621833818214170961632416464140731406014270145001482714503
NH34B1b10878104941024499979133869586768190795577777976834474327001664751325445605463276880
CO1A3bi41714243236641461339852436600934372233155829626127340923859221597120605918683317737515417814653412741211255910189688173
CO1A4cii5043147422441844143138543364653369731539288592669824524227612082318975172351603815890168401746618029

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A1a112901231017373881149907087095707651846659575114260381095635382013154290293906628705292631504223305220868031705967471427536293406955350535
Pb1A2a741600722880704160686160667440649440630720612720617760619200694080617040628560628560652320628286565668533736578801246290
Pb1A2fi33989013985171388134938302482015963259746017899471258833150652915333931244869103031084685410952421333818929850781156776180631450388955
Pb1A3aii(i)1534103142254013779961328253163878917884351639883155918213985731386771136948213433301327893125239613042851296867124530013288801181880991198
Pb1A3bi926741097216719965426392283751797006270392704817216373187740397454875115778258148985003856618835797858100399100713
Pb1A4bi761642884650827917855377793551729491730900724407651506646565717425823842845671955856101116811814621296145153932314995091454880
Pb2C1672944672944672944732676792408785832728000636000372900666600440000870800   301750    
Pb3D3281393237240944025428355674043180066595380605035247619227752712146814803236722255422131588914035435576160824560162806767   
Cd1A2a144201405613692133421297812628122641191412012120401349611998122221222212684122171099910378112544789
Cd1A3bi1748118604196202018720913210402108321634219512206222068220452261923271238022350323723252512530324905
Cd1A3bvi47925019515452445527559956885864600761146099609661916437665867066942726771656772
Cd2C138682386823868242116455494517142000300003810024302000036000        
Hg1A1a231778522638781899990180229119633421738783180913413431741126804966341570893488475502026521648364959359218308579281016316012236385
Hg1A1b2009320997221012281524246301123082324200217202244922308226352182123540226772176222811225922105321878
Hg1A3bi1338414245149271532115868160221618516605169341696316802166211678517043170891681016817176311748516858
Hg1A3di(i)2683825358291583967746543498551403244839490814342641785335113004530810243642276827166268912535416506
HgGRIDTOTAL307398131923392908659284238226074322365227241336518741211600208142953710527871053275886462915147786755805667691762670721670096515233
HgNATIONALTOTAL307398131923392908659284238226074322365227241336518741211600208142953710527871053275886462915147786755805667691762670721670096515233
HgUNFCCCTOTAL307398131923392908659284238226074322365227241336518741211600208142953710527871053275886462915147786755805667691762670721670096515233