Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2008
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2008
PMs:	2000 – 2008

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
NOx	1A3bi	58210	58676	59061	57420	54306	51140	47817	44171	40307	36664	33606	30815	28665	27125	24919	22410	20107	19016	16927
NOx	1A3bii	7717	7990	8000	8254	8692	8424	8366	8266	8268	8154	8153	8225	8077	8333	8489	8533	8557	7752	7151
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	273864	320968	278307	279803	281473	265661	303023	256143	234531	215875	201500	198372	195228	203891	187643	180531	182108	168977	151686
NMVOC	3C	9829	9547	9264	8981	8698	9106	9199	7818	7447	7070	6742	6104	6389	4759	5897	6123	5935	6068	5852
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	191582	186543	182685	179323	175016	167587	172309	161117	152252	146876	142806	134991	131481	126297	123473	121326	116472	110578	106306
NH3	4B1b	9946	9548	9296	9046	8241	7821	7787	7349	7121	6912	7277	7583	6744	5904	5557	4168	4459	5409	5566
NH3	4B9	4278	4258	4493	4833	5389	4993	4909	4831	4733	4869	4908	4958	4942	4727	4969	5020	4281	3544	4122
CO	1A3bi	422280	436147	425553	425998	392949	370186	357307	304314	282512	249033	226509	216346	195675	186235	161037	151928	130527	115970	105072
CO	1A4cii	50431	47422	44184	41431	38543	36465	33697	31539	28859	26698	24524	22745	20790	18927	17169	15955	15783	15748	15657

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pb	1A2f	1928958	1836407	1636211	1381005	1283619	1885363	1080976	506567	746851	877113	626855	457353	465003	544811	704702	389456	308022	269594	241193
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880	1181880
Pb	1A3bi	92771218	72231744	65491541	28379523	51659	52227	52748	54140	55170	54930	54013	52936	52897	52719	51722	49629	48501	48326	46308
Pb	1A4a	714772	692594	632005	553597	501271	427474	306466	197379	123011	230318	196208	152406	48021	198802	32342	48994	116755	13536	19962
Pb	1A4bi	497413	568428	561391	621306	590298	593697	632649	615091	552670	565423	670088	786483	806709	912707	966793	1130310	1248151	1505223	1478717
Pb	2C	731369	732794	734144	795226	856308	851082	794000	703980	440880	734580	507980	938780	67980	67980	67980	369730	67980	67980	67980
Cd	1A3bi	15757	16801	17637	18197	18942	19148	19373	19841	20225	20391	20252	19955	20225	20662	20841	20465	20591	21786	21461
Hg	1A1a	2503157	2686622	2517067	2525492	2047449	1802563	1946410	1556208	1461263	1525225	569730	609051	663937	712864	555843	533912	424701	398741	429504
Hg	1A3di	27596	26230	30039	40488	47346	50648	14313	45519	49761	44498	43012	37728	33846	34280	27374	26373	30813	30077	29110
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3218045	3454281	3283123	3285139	2790605	2523366	2642339	2166668	2010323	2089905	1108401	1222100	1099778	1202352	1004671	1011807	875154	806275	815234