Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DK

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	1A3bi	57926	58348	58769	57113	53865	50704	47345	43689	39819	36142	33102	30435	28248	26162	24122	21795	19772	19253
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	273184	320241	277418	278799	280513	264632	302043	255185	233497	214965	200604	197565	194770	203743	187845	179677	180669	166707
NMVOC	3A	23594	22897	22199	21502	20805	16327	19755	20090	17632	16644	17448	15370	14481	13340	12635	12606	11462	11398
CO	1A3bi	421936	435764	425231	425672	392516	369785	356896	303939	282166	248692	226199	216040	195347	184534	160535	151967	130602	116622

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1a	11963123	12099312	11014142	10423179	6401338	5403862	5334198	3600985	3201449	2845153	2963654	2196153	2305603	1885111	2150501	2569143	3435118	3545964
Pb	1A2f	1928958	1836407	1636215	1381008	1283622	1885356	1080941	506529	746805	877067	626793	457288	464941	544749	704639	389406	343676	269575
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1534103	1422540	1377996	1328253	1638789	1788435	1639883	1559182	1398573	1386771	1369482	1343330	1327893	1252396	1304285	1296867	1245300	1328880
Pb	1A3bi	92771218	72231744	65491541	28379523	51659	52227	52748	54140	55170	54930	54012	52914	52868	52695	51667	49676	48516	48457
Pb	1A3bii	3636955	2798592	2541614	1119307	2015	2030	2065	2087	2196	2212	2292	2394	2470	2551	2663	2735	2764	2334
Pb	1A4a	714769	692589	631995	553584	501252	427492	306440	197343	122971	230277	196167	152363	47976	198760	32300	48960	116716	13554
Pb	2C	731369	732794	734144	795226	856308	851082	794000	703980	440880	734580	507980	938780	67980	67980	67980	369730	67980	67980
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	119779895	96859487	87899218	46568176	12044386	11705851	10495357	7684830	6998065	7111325	6797507	6128947	5273040	4963734	5300654	5672889	6138628	6166218
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1138332	1225510	1206490	1122129	1005179	830690	810679	734206	720941	704200	625189	676402	640431	620186	622140	645692	718785	747333
Hg	1A1a	2503201	2686723	2517236	2525590	1668366	1655298	1748037	1399515	1321809	1398057	568391	607858	663011	711593	575411	734669	676791	482075
Hg	1A3di	27596	26230	30039	40488	47346	50648	14313	45519	49761	44498	43012	37728	33846	34280	27374	26373	30813	30077
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3274550	3519587	3350363	3359686	2484036	2449954	2523343	2088200	1940036	2033954	1198209	1330243	1212187	1332152	1164232	1379388	1328691	1119161