Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2010

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2010

PMs:

2000 – 2010

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
NOx1A3di(i)182949153727128462160603147800149184147925159061150384150384161299162822175134193432197808185235191997229534221656202471206394
NOx1A4bi902879099585074914738760187375943489307887961879617673584342767197589569271669656925754927665036328867723
NMVOC1A3bi9574987120296567065679624452714183153831523434413092303092302276422082241883831671951537331356511213291118091005089546189268
NMVOC1A5a1775271233767617447282236375281675450504239393735353430323031
NMVOC1B2aiv972368700180905798877564272144706727105970816708166836666778658216522166187636666402862680620086032560260
SOx1A3di(i)1251671056668605110958210075710123494483103187100377100377109429112123120708134101139552130041132221159764156949141582143244
SOx1A4ai344492197705113640794184762744153476103935031732317322485527871240492089317838172391934014170190101509315713
SOx1A4bi44958628152818783316768214019011271511399410532792054920547342579960689116142252026502885464739365516534357849140
SOx2B5a560252482223796217892059925032225772310624243246392480223384231992389525568257433027730647299762544328381
NH31A3bi93932676999104171294216217194562243824096240962799926150253992408422926208011924218032167151558014333
NH34B1b194704174261168739166024155638155859155035149201147924147924147070148550140392137690131619129856127936127149128209127975125914
NH34B8148841125873129700127779113984110775113894115814123582123582117266118283119782119132115565118394115858117686114090114366108018
NH34B9a242722253520013197581946019796184781893218631186311814717953172371783518074169641761218413172651678615621
NH3FUTOTAL691523621853612848614997588595598891605662598052603899603899601832608397595637590334581961573203568747567269568198575664547780
NH3GRIDTOTAL691523621853612848614997588595598891605662598052603899603899601832608397595637590334581961573203568747567269568198575664547780
NH3NATIONALTOTAL691523621853612848614997588595598891605662598052603899603899601832608397595637590334581961573203568747567269568198575664547780
NH3UNFCCCTOTAL691550621871612853614997588593598884605657598051603897603897601830608391595631590323581938573176568721567237568161575628547733
CO1A1a129284117362109612104557104134110649105190103048102705102705115195112921115460130482130618132209136591146461148736149291155706
CO1A3bi61261755213373470800342694493680265342874131171562807543255365025536501987137181433916422911463272134027811808901051914969747868684813550753068
CO1A4bi1924887142749811087131050535966255839304824495897235827898816721789628857682791363746044686929664680708409689768753798782021940993
CO2C11161313109202910055949563921028087972464907230968502940457940457906807857807828602820079831641810118824574838588788945557436734593
CO2C311103810354590420827907551010350010377010294211017611017611588311750311781011901612039011624792956997081090685251772496
COFUTOTAL12372002101131608727628793241870155716560695608473559260065462392546239248097504603521431351341165203879096365863735790993481815339643430110283331699
COGRIDTOTAL12372002101131608727628793241870155716560695608473559260065462392546239248097504603521431351341165203879096365863735790993481815339643430110283331699
CONATIONALTOTAL12372002101131608727628793241870155716560695608473559260065462392546239248097504603521431351341165203879096365863735790993481815339643430110283331699
COUNFCCCTOTAL12368290101094948723439792826970109796555581607985959211485457164545716448038604597528430779541104133872027365084535708363472931338730530022673322315

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Pb1A3bi15485044038653753636079846674739436362963217752198587721172842761387240             
PbFUTOTAL20745859741304912379989055199817914931626078383693493109558817233450507582436041087436041087433457524418438949397271791381797817372720657352473304347803491338509724199064135174261038191432285
PbGRIDTOTAL20745859741304912379989055199817914931626078383693493109558817233450507582436041087436041087433457524418438949397271791381797817372720657352473304347803491338509724199064135174261038191432285
PbNATIONALTOTAL20745859741304912379989055199817914931626078383693493109558817233450507582436041087436041087433457524418438949397271791381797817372720657352473304347803491338509724199064135174261038191432285
PbUNFCCCTOTAL20745859741304912379989055199817914931626078383693493109558817233450507582436041087436041087433457524418438949397271791381797817372720657352473304347803491338509724199064135174261038191432285
Cd1A1a491503635988662837490220097716479571137916120567811451101179218117921812021431249716123246612732431242188121672212388431261791118608711159191147489
Cd1A1b105887710899401158006134793215361611167289108259811916131001147100114711772091227793140878615302991292999140475114794641485306141009212346141245441
Cd1A1c406260628858661510164941064489721104964892116702465770657706395154997578986270365113589116301061100442352721631080
Cd1A2fi189382889744443968523157812751393526860579781581989819895116445756530087279075471787958267984585870677883885978
Cd2C141212293935709376094635415143842463700927365227776960949658424465842446230045561724249277724378868391616632271842703187210072713471539639361256664
Hg1A1c64169244764380273245619162721237404719707584968432138362121362121319407280094298030317737329402299908312123313097238386164221188940
Hg1A2fi5221385276098316459821126319813291727259641001719476582703582703368415361111374434382656348556339411358854357135355959295339329138
Hg2A1828733744430782507787234831082720993701780739844769269769269786955710943688573739552785092741992772554818836752651673883651765
Hg2C127046142614786262181324794332725696483864347190585204466526291552629155490867510073844877933994647359723529133772452316186686211828149079591065915
HgFUTOTAL282551592216377117796320150505961345781113851847137385571382103413797228137972281388377913591594129813891280440712354000116764441138088011012381980046088807119291793
HgGRIDTOTAL282551592216377117796320150505961345781113851847137385571382103413797228137972281388377913591594129813891280440712354000116764441138088011012381980046088807119291793
HgNATIONALTOTAL282551592216377117796320150505961345781113851847137385571382103413797228137972281388377913591594129813891280440712354000116764441138088011012381980046088807119291793
HgUNFCCCTOTAL282551592216377117796320150505961345781113851847137385571382103413797228137972281388377913591594129813891280440712354000116764441138088011012381980046088807119291793

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
DIOX1A3di(i)94557945663983017639771076458221777278908336841590529997102239574992311863114561046410667
DIOX1A4bi196181586713358132841248611465119171358713244132441274914261134691357512918127541330412157136781413816177
HCB1A3di(i)317415267698219205278051255708257168243205264696255896255896278000283947305632339126351634328002334840403691395172357402362167