Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NOx	1A3di(i)	182949	153727	128462	160603	147800	149184	147925	159061	150384	152661	161299	162822	175134	193432	197808	185235	191997	229534	221656	202793
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76719	75895	69271	66965	69257	54927	66503	63961
NOx	4D2a	75494	68430	65109	67742	65575	66798	68662	69120	69327	68761	67273	68647	66325	63287	67981	67511	64822	67886	69674	71163
NOx	FUTOTAL	2940275	2715829	2550075	2443118	2295056	2208989	2128370	2046330	2000750	1972750	1910822	1829836	1737453	1676264	1644511	1583300	1585793	1523331	1467764	1369698
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	2940275	2715829	2550075	2443118	2295056	2208989	2128370	2046330	2000750	1972750	1910822	1829836	1737453	1676264	1644511	1583300	1585793	1523331	1467764	1369698
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2940275	2715829	2550075	2443118	2295056	2208989	2128370	2046330	2000750	1972750	1910822	1829836	1737453	1676264	1644511	1583300	1585793	1523331	1467764	1369698
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	2942272	2717463	2550704	2443114	2294991	2208573	2128200	2046502	2000858	1972721	1910939	1829663	1737337	1675637	1643023	1581469	1583965	1521174	1465221	1367227
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123376	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	34	30	32	30
NMVOC	1B2aiv	97236	87001	80905	79887	75642	72144	70672	71059	70816	68968	68366	66778	65821	65221	66187	63666	64028	62680	62008	60325
NMVOC	1B2av	130336	130123	131057	131465	96134	78056	67032	58111	49372	42437	37140	34402	31859	27985	24840	19689	18643	17232	16321	15745
NMVOC	4B1b	83417	74420	70710	69751	65896	66417	66377	64145	63432	63924	63075	63585	59775	57922	55598	54682	53961	53741	54066	54042
NMVOC	4B8	108125	91606	93667	91741	80827	78596	79988	82106	86924	84733	82925	82865	83821	84674	82089	85555	84210	86460	85156	87173
SOx	1A2a	36463	31876	28815	25252	21571	32590	32276	32692	33735	29955	821			4	293	4	3	4	2	1
SOx	1A3di(i)	125167	105666	86051	109582	100757	101234	94483	103187	100377	103702	109429	112123	120708	134101	139552	130041	132221	159764	156949	141832
SOx	1A4ai	344492	197705	113640	79418	47627	44153	47610	39350	31732	27091	24854	27871	24049	20893	17838	17239	19339	14170	19010	16012
SOx	1A4bi	449586	281528	187833	167682	140190	112715	113994	105327	92054	78019	73425	79960	68911	61422	52026	50288	54647	39365	51653	45381
SOx	2B5a	56025	24822	23796	21789	20599	25032	22577	23106	24243	24639	24802	23384	23199	23895	25568	25743	30277	30647	29976	25688
NH3	4B1b	169030	150763	143282	141245	133176	134126	134044	129429	127879	128579	126608	127519	120190	116600	111901	110362	108833	108202	109118	108972
NH3	4B8	154262	130694	133634	130886	115315	112133	114118	117140	124013	120888	118308	118223	119587	120804	117116	122060	120141	123352	121492	124369
NH3	FUTOTAL	699712	630493	615306	615662	590706	599243	605274	598336	602574	599915	593961	602873	590910	588687	583880	578261	573574	577275	584034	597258
NH3	GRIDTOTAL	699712	630493	615306	615662	590706	599243	605274	598336	602574	599915	593961	602873	590910	588687	583880	578261	573574	577275	584034	597258
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	699712	630493	615306	615662	590706	599243	605274	598336	602574	599915	593961	602873	590910	588687	583880	578261	573574	577275	584034	597258
NH3	UNFCCCTOTAL	699739	630511	615311	615662	590704	599236	605269	598334	602572	599913	593959	602867	590904	588676	583857	578235	573548	577244	583997	597221
CO	1A4bi	1924887	1427498	1108713	1050535	966255	839304	824495	897235	827898	816721	789628	857682	791363	746044	686929	664680	708409	689768	753798	758200
CO	2C1	1161313	1092029	1005594	956392	1028087	972464	907230	968502	940457	859569	906807	857807	828602	820079	831641	810118	824574	838588	788945	557436
CO	2C3	111038	103545	90420	82790	75510	103500	103770	102942	110176	113760	115883	117503	117810	119016	120390	116247	92956	99708	109068	52506
CO	FUTOTAL	12263090	10087276	8722008	7903648	6952091	6565420	6131935	6005000	5569137	5194155	4900005	4645714	4351152	4165975	3940080	3724784	3657307	3562516	3496949	3094573
CO	GRIDTOTAL	12263090	10087276	8722008	7903648	6952091	6565420	6131935	6005000	5569137	5194155	4900005	4645714	4351152	4165975	3940080	3724784	3657307	3562516	3496949	3094573
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	12263090	10087276	8722008	7903648	6952091	6565420	6131935	6005000	5569137	5194155	4900005	4645714	4351152	4165975	3940080	3724784	3657307	3562516	3496949	3094573
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	12259378	10083611	8717819	7899501	6947500	6560307	6127059	6000142	5563909	5188664	4894115	4639722	4345434	4159869	3933012	3716993	3649046	3553652	3487810	3085809

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A3bi	1528881817	855071187	600655502	468043469	292494756	216587073	115267995	1358730
Cd	1A1a	4434237	2831984	1857995	1018631	266058	267697	275907	257250	262311	247884	257300	264984	258820	260584	253059	246487	247128	251565	231863	215970
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167289	1082598	1191613	1001147	1472525	1177209	1227793	1408786	1530054	1292192	1404479	1479192	1485306	1409901	1233409
Cd	1A1c	3977184	2611008	1173108	528443	31024	8304	6369	4893	4260	4053	3618	3238	3364	3439	3565	2999	2904	3329	2669	2299
Cd	1A2fi	1852558	804027	337859	135190	40533	36923	30815	32842	28888	23247	14016	11556	14832	18822	17732	17562	17199	18235	15373	14327
Cd	1A3di(i)	64537899	54542336	44146249	56465863	51907887	52096568	47901346	52520929	51451713	53379823	56310728	57900271	62346719	69357873	72466783	67452517	68279612	82707341	81568232	73505321
Cd	2C1	4121229	3935709	3760946	3541514	3842463	7009273	6523672	6962939	6587142	6267094	6234945	5622783	4934264	4386271	3924612	3236169	2713545	2112275	1347153	963936
Hg	1A1a	9493528	7173129	5269450	3559830	2022146	1839485	1999936	1910874	2065135	2006245	2157860	2212994	2156389	2195695	2127274	2065814	2080641	2118067	1934949	1781445
Hg	1A1c	6184137	4121591	1941587	955512	173494	70579	59186	43659	42014	40983	38856	33018	34901	37501	39165	30492	31007	35370	25695	21728
Hg	1A2fi	3498250	1890741	1106877	730782	489916	426842	363129	404552	345133	270067	187770	158871	203638	211049	174727	191081	207031	177399	152082	141259
Hg	1A3di(i)	64619700	53887904	46911338	56975817	52507834	53389929	57870209	60896370	55215760	54543803	57747134	56903803	61116498	66849493	66339852	62659098	67093720	78795151	73858728	69046092
Hg	1A4ciii	2243797	2243797	1898592	2243797	2243797	2243797	2589001	2071194	2071194	2285929	1756797	1804085	1405296	1277537	1277537	1277537	1149779	1149779	1149779	1022032
Hg	2A1	828733	744430	782507	787234	831082	843096	802394	827525	859554	889757	877617	792128	766532	822591	872537	823993	857286	944737	887816	813106
Hg	2C1	2704614	2614786	2621813	2479433	2725696	4768400	4680860	5179664	5249105	5117940	5486725	5098835	4487010	3994460	3597321	2913535	2452439	1866870	1182814	907959

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A3di(i)	9455	7945	6639	8301	7639	7710	7645	8221	7772	7890	8336	8415	9051	9997	10223	9574	9923	11863	11456	10481
DIOX	1A4bi	19618	15867	13358	13284	12486	11465	11917	13587	13244	12952	12749	14261	13469	13575	12918	12754	13304	12157	13678	13734
HCB	1A1a	583469	634551	599480	624672	626615	628885	684337	640527	685500	643720	653228	658465	635567	667739	646352	629171	651153	663590	591061	521766
HCB	1A2fi	81900	76543	74295	67933	60670	42141	32136	45317	39856	28356	19173	11136	19190	20907	13130	18394	20715	13539	12878	11385
HCB	1A4ci	68991	61205	58977	58951	57543	57544	57304	57591	56803	56984	57325	57408	57402	56980	56887	56961	57232	57533	57590	57317