Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE

Submission year: 2010

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2008 was reported in NFR09 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2008

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2008

PMs:

2000 – 2008

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
NOx1A3di(i)186419157198131398164074151270152654151929162265153587156197164016165613177307195408199784187211193775231313223384
NOx1A4bi90287909958507491473876018737594348930788796179434767358434276719758956927166965692575492765894
NOx4D2a50421457754353045006438064457745733459514604745898449024588044331425854545345154435784544346666
NOxFUTOTAL2876034265406224953702386445224127121518552070986198924119434191914532185379917709211676731161376715743401514739152047514546381393311
NOxGRIDTOTAL2876034265406224953702386445224127121518552070986198924119434191914532185379917709211676731161376715743401514739152047514546381393311
NOxNATIONALTOTAL2876034265406224953702386445224127121518552070986198924119434191914532185379917709211676731161376715743401514739152047514546381393311
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL2877345265404924943882384843223899221487092067021198431819377261908086184638217628551668461160459115632001503402150881214422551380358
NMVOC1A5a177527123376761744728223637528167545046423939373535343032
NMVOC4B1b75583678086474663836600976054060523584905818658246575535806354613529995085250082493934915149332
NMVOC4B899865854158663385133761667417975553775788236080331786097864879612804037796481272800188208580811
SOx1A3di(i)1263241068228703011073810191410239095817104255101445104880110334113053121433134759140211130700132813160357157503
SOx1A4bi4495862815281878331676821401901127151139941053279205478019734257996068911614225202650288546473936553452
SOx2B5a56025248222379621789205992503222577231062424324639248022338423199238952556825743302773064729871
NH34B1b1498291342291277861257801177981184111182401140871133181130931115031124381059581029529869697409960059538695915
NH34B8142476121861123599121459108666105831107791110680117503114607112151112206113581114710111230115951114161117111115293
NH3FUTOTAL671208607282592356594668581218591251595682588404593688598641593907605537593843589090587650580767577882580977586934
NH3GRIDTOTAL671208607282592356594668581218591251595682588404593688598641593907605537593843589090587650580767577882580977586934
NH3NATIONALTOTAL671208607282592356594668581218591251595682588404593688598641593907605537593843589090587650580767577882580977586934
NH3UNFCCCTOTAL671208607282592356594668581218591251595682588404593688598641593907605537593843589090587650580767577882580977586934
CO1A4bi1924887142749811087131050535966255839304824495897235827898816721789628857682791363746044686929664680708409689768782894
COFUTOTAL12180921995352186100647798321685044065899816201497608307956937105320831504999847829024483720427541040747143843021382044837773303755246
COGRIDTOTAL12180921995352186100647798321685044065899816201497608307956937105320831504999847829024483720427541040747143843021382044837773303755246
CONATIONALTOTAL12180921995352186100647798321685044065899816201497608307956937105320831504999847829024483720427541040747143843021382044837773303755246
COUNFCCCTOTAL12178141994950086046767792187684364065823156193009607381956838785310255503857247713334472508426361740615183829485380662737630513740882

HM (Unit = g)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Pb1A1a49774477360294772584384916436135820921571639307207960636381864853775817690582321459227805666323585831356335275456310553148456204175012350
Pb1A3bi15288818178550711876006555024680434692924947562165870731152679951358730           
Cd1A1a4434237283198418579951018631266058267697275907257250262311247884257300264984258820260584253059246487247128251565230307
Cd1A1b1058877108994011580061347932153616111672891082598119161310011471472525117720912277931408786153005412921921404479147919214853061421485
Cd1A1c3977184261100811731085284433102483046369489342604053361832383364343935652999290433292977
Cd1A2fi1852558804036337956134965404133696730940329722899123289140041113214915182121723616823171871807018510
Cd1A3di(i)64986651549910844452597556914617523566435254532748419146529351685186595253837009566620885826108862627778696133817272229067708025685095688293729781777470
CdFUTOTAL11937769799461051461073647332252205023284612240582243782222148992695468240570525194272687983275594624736722570157267893227187622708858
CdGRIDTOTAL11937769799461051461073647332252205023284612240582243782222148992695468240570525194272687983275594624736722570157267893227187622708858
CdNATIONALTOTAL11937769799461051461073647332252205023284612240582243782222148992695468240570525194272687983275594624736722570157267893227187622708858
CdUNFCCCTOTAL11937769799461051461073647332252205023284612240582243782222148992695468240570525194272687983275594624736722570157267893227187622708858
Hg1A1a9493528717312952694503559830202214618394851999936191087420651352006245215786022129942156389219569521272742065814208064121180671921976
Hg1A1c6184137412159119415879555121734947057959186436594201440983388563301834901375013916530492310073537030806
Hg1A2fi349849818910681107105726961488012427976365710407183347255271069187882151722205389200263165951178039206751174031180614
Hg1A3bvi69806816288288481972869919072293184965529835710131910162510231510256810263510309099256102544105257105865
Hg1A3di(i)66863230561314714880975959219382547514185563372560459211629675645728695456829732595039315870788862521793681270306761739063936635682434997994493074994700
Hg2A1828733744430782507787234831082843096802394827525859554889757877617792128766532822591872537823993857286944737887816
HgFUTOTAL200763251401347591851636112970360323932734203322031328734934139593311041362646635381433522678364860336038313799628390681540128173801895
HgGRIDTOTAL200763251401347591851636112970360323932734203322031328734934139593311041362646635381433522678364860336038313799628390681540128173801895
HgNATIONALTOTAL200763251401347591851636112970360323932734203322031328734934139593311041362646635381433522678364860336038313799628390681540128173801895
HgUNFCCCTOTAL200763251401347591851636112970360323932734203322031328734934139593311041362646635381433522678364860336038313799628390681540128173801895

POP (Unit = mg)
  1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
DIOX1A3di(i)963581246791848078187890785283867938807384778559916410099103259676100151195511545
DIOX1A4ai35003331592064519131112201871816251172941154410956110121038610508883184928456855285928677
HCB1A2fi81918765607431167948606834215032143453273986528362191771113819194209111313318397207151353912784