Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: DE

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NOx	1A4bi	90287	90995	85074	91473	87601	87375	94348	93078	87961	79434	76735	84342	76850	75696	70690	66965	69257	54269
NMVOC	1A5a	177527	123376	76174	47282	23637	528	167	54	50	46	42	39	39	37	35	35	34	10
NMVOC	4B1b	94472	82963	80433	79747	74111	75075	76445	73962	74230	74227	73748	74925	70535	68658	66011	65623	65059	65081
NMVOC	4B8	116976	96150	98626	97739	86800	84505	86469	88711	94245	92666	90853	90977	92166	93702	91041	95193	94525	96972
SOx	1A4bi	449586	281528	187833	167682	140190	112715	113994	105327	92054	78019	73425	79960	69136	61418	52056	50288	54647	37702
SOx	2B5a	56025	24822	23796	21789	20599	25032	22577	23106	24243	24639	24802	23384	23199	23895	25568	25743	30277	30458
NH3	4B1b	188405	165288	159822	158222	146440	148037	150519	145442	145760	145474	144320	146592	138176	134619	129329	128755	127597	129353
NH3	4B8	166889	137176	140710	139444	123837	120562	123364	126563	134459	132206	129620	129796	131493	133684	129887	135811	134859	138349
NH3	GRIDTOTAL	717830	635184	619865	626891	614209	626299	630350	623133	625962	633539	627118	642774	630286	627734	623264	620985	619828	624230
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	717830	635184	619865	626891	614209	626299	630350	623133	625962	633539	627118	642774	630286	627734	623264	620985	619828	624230
NH3	NECDTOTAL	717830	635184	619865	626891	614209	626299	630350	623133	625962	633539	627118	642774	630286	627734	623264	620985	619828	624230
NH3	SNAPTOTAL	717830	635184	619865	626891	614209	626299	630350	623133	625962	633539	627118	642774	630286	627734	623264	620985	619828	624230
NH3	UNFCCCTOTAL	717830	635184	619865	626891	614209	626299	630350	623133	625962	633539	627118	642774	630286	627734	623264	620985	619828	624230
CO	1A4bi	1924887	1427498	1108713	1050535	966255	839304	824495	897235	827898	816721	789628	857682	795750	745930	687803	664680	708409	693181
CO	GRIDTOTAL	12131109	9903906	8569404	7764343	6816756	6656030	6251223	6109575	5703253	5331541	5056000	4801013	4514081	4301856	4084311	3794992	3776947	3747588
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	12131109	9903906	8569404	7764343	6816756	6656030	6251223	6109575	5703253	5331541	5056000	4801013	4514081	4301856	4084311	3794992	3776947	3747588
CO	NECDTOTAL	12131109	9903906	8569404	7764343	6816756	6656030	6251223	6109575	5703253	5331541	5056000	4801013	4514081	4301856	4084311	3794992	3776947	3747588
CO	SNAPTOTAL	12131109	9903906	8569404	7764343	6816756	6656030	6251223	6109575	5703253	5331541	5056000	4801013	4514081	4301856	4084311	3794992	3776947	3747588
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	12182396	9953625	8608854	7796520	6848143	6686590	6278919	6140411	5731756	5361468	5080221	4822605	4532793	4319443	4100222	3811802	3793412	3763373

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1a	49774477	36029477	25843849	16436135	8209215	7163930	7207960	6363818	6485377	5817690	5823214	5922780	5667153	5811184	5574289	5438036	5504837	5824565
Pb	1A3bi	1528881839	855071203	600655498	468043467	292494756	216589050	115267150	1358724
Cd	1A1a	4434237	2831984	1857995	1018631	266058	267697	275907	257250	262311	247884	257300	264984	258973	259300	252923	245911	246504	258286
Cd	1A1b	1058877	1089940	1158006	1347932	1536161	1167289	1082598	1191613	1001147	1472525	1177209	1227793	1408786	1530054	1292192	1388827	1410958	1377503
Cd	1A1c	3977184	2611008	1173108	528443	31024	8304	6369	4893	4260	4053	3618	3238	3364	3439	3565	3489	3491	3878
Cd	1A2fi	1852558	804036	337956	134965	40413	36967	30940	32972	28991	23289	14004	11132	15527	14068	11506	11347	11790	11089
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	11928817	7986667	5138234	3639372	2514620	2261373	2180898	2368814	2172394	2646225	2343314	2453033	2624108	2701486	2422721	2502430	2548698	2536935
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	11928817	7986667	5138234	3639372	2514620	2261373	2180898	2368814	2172394	2646225	2343314	2453033	2624108	2701486	2422721	2502430	2548698	2536935
Cd	NECDTOTAL	11928817	7986667	5138234	3639372	2514620	2261373	2180898	2368814	2172394	2646225	2343314	2453033	2624108	2701486	2422721	2502430	2548698	2536935
Cd	SNAPTOTAL	11928817	7986667	5138234	3639372	2514620	2261373	2180898	2368814	2172394	2646225	2343314	2453033	2624108	2701486	2422721	2502430	2548698	2536935
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	11928817	7986667	5138234	3639372	2514620	2261373	2180898	2368814	2172394	2646225	2343314	2453033	2624108	2701486	2422721	2502430	2548698	2536935
Hg	1A1a	9493528	7173129	5269450	3559830	2022146	1839485	1999936	1910874	2065135	2006245	2157860	2212994	2157341	2182813	2119061	2063886	2077388	2184745
Hg	1A1c	6184137	4121591	1941587	955512	173494	70579	59186	43659	42014	40983	38856	33018	34901	37501	39165	38579	40688	44464
Hg	1A2fi	3498498	1891068	1107105	726961	488012	427976	365710	407183	347255	271069	187882	151722	207344	191969	154002	145537	151507	146709
Hg	1A3bvi	69806	81628	82884	81972	86991	90666	93015	96282	98188	101252	101625	101425	101917	102153	102417	99894	103505	106829
Hg	2A1	828733	744430	782507	787234	831082	843096	802394	827525	859554	889757	877617	792128	766532	822591	872537	823993	857286	944737
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	20076325	14013475	9185163	6112970	3603239	3273364	3321862	3287079	3413791	3310973	3626466	3537254	3524935	3626945	3582995	3773928	3863141	4047050
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	20076325	14013475	9185163	6112970	3603239	3273364	3321862	3287079	3413791	3310973	3626466	3537254	3524935	3626945	3582995	3773928	3863141	4047050
Hg	NECDTOTAL	20076325	14013475	9185163	6112970	3603239	3273364	3321862	3287079	3413791	3310973	3626466	3537254	3524935	3626945	3582995	3773928	3863141	4047050
Hg	SNAPTOTAL	20076325	14013475	9185163	6112970	3603239	3273364	3321862	3287079	3413791	3310973	3626466	3537254	3524935	3626945	3582995	3773928	3863141	4047050
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	20076325	14013475	9185163	6112970	3603239	3273364	3321862	3287079	3413791	3310973	3626466	3537254	3524935	3626945	3582995	3773928	3863141	4047050

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DIOX	1A4ai	35003	33159	20645	19131	11220	18718	16251	17294	11544	10956	11013	10387	10509	9044	8740	8454	8686	8657
HCB	1A2fi	81918	76560	74311	67948	60683	42150	32143	45327	39865	28362	19177	11138	19194	20574	12942	13306	14807	14343