Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A4cii												38937	38952	32804	30290	15088	33622	33296	34932	33815	34041
NMVOC	1A3e												1995	2065	7244	7646	817	2	2	3	3	10
NMVOC	1A4ci												710	108	190	212	1109	181	139	6878	411	491
CO	1A3e												7745	8054	27556	29837	3374	90	68	76	74	50
CO	2C5e												66103	53299	31889	26781	20169	39614	1320	20		1

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM2.5	1A3e				1394	1283	188	2	1	2	2
PM2.5	2C5e				1933	1135	530	720	449	103	0	3
PM10	1A1a		3565	3	4222	4188	3870	3294	3494	2617	2649	2776
PM10	1A2fi		3529	7	3016	3969	1320	1617	1265	1032	1019	854
PM10	1A3bi		5671	6	6130	5922	4141	679	930	790	993	987
PM10	1A4ai		2052	1	529	469	550	298	268	341	280	299
PM10	1A4bi		16459	20	25840	24244	12900	12421	11977	12898	11818	13815
PM10	1A4cii		3921	4	3645	3150	1676	1384	1370	1431	1386	1410
PM10	2A7d		3419	4	1407	505	3610	1976	2078	2169	1487	58
PM10	2C5e		1525	1	3116	1668	730	1278	920	172	1	4
PM10	2G		3412	0	173		410	198	238	233	128	192
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL		43105	51	51399	46988	34346	34857	34619	34932	36324	37011
TSP	1A1a		3968	4	4571	4577	4600	4205	4342	3288	3192	3331
TSP	1A2fi		4656	5	3616	4890	1760	2137	1793	1396	1918	1253
TSP	1A3bi		20741	22	22050	23439	23121	679	930	790	993	987
TSP	1A4ai		3452	2	856	771	870	525	440	528	436	456
TSP	1A4bi		22904	29	31076	29010	16450	15626	15067	16247	14834	17360
TSP	1A4cii		3921	4	3645	3150	1676	1384	1370	1431	1386	1410
TSP	2A7d		4629	5	2752	3507	5820	3856	4077	4237	2914	102
TSP	2C5e		2022	2	4895	2499	860	1989	1562	217	1	5
TSP	2G		5463	1	502		690	368	327	364	203	295
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	57182	71202	76	77828	75244	64350	67856	66667	64454	62256	61082

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a												1471700	1625544	1662865	845830	10420084	7329166	6571409	5350258	4327041	3604715
Pb	1A2b																3489975	2107584	2107180	2108340	1366050	95943
Pb	1A2fi												28772400	24556832	22994585	24407800	3746671	3309620	3433820	3576057	12834132	2660162
Pb	1A3																			2018507	996000	879500
Pb	1A3ai(i)												2000000	1700000	42900	25350			15000
Pb	1A3aii(i)												2000000	1700000		390			5000	5000	20000	2000
Pb	1A3bi												10000000	9312000	4917900	2677200	999100	1000000	1010000	1000000	970000	871472
Pb	2C1																		1520339	1363417	4417248	3464555
Pb	2C2																		4545778	4736941	189478	31857
Pb	2C5e													6133192	7088414	6923005	5967208	6656717	2050000			42238
Pb	6Cb												3213000	1597131	360429	96425	40938	55425	21000	20425	10085	9474
Cd	1A1a												360500	471955	400639	482946	1169218	1166337	1019202	1881365	1622337	220390
Cd	1A2b																92505	112904	112899	112814	267324	7378
Cd	1A2fi												1667060	680001	537923	496000	74936	128534	139122	130973	216014	82209
Cd	1A4ai												192500	159653	16345	6001	62100	5533	22546	5432	8145	20000
Cd	2C1																		1056	947	808013	135678
Cd	2C2																		1075363	1120586	1504	3187
Cd	2C5e													1132299	1167212	1242812	1097532	1222252				164
Cd	FUTOTAL																			3761642	3368430	886793
Cd	GRIDTOTAL														2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	2908826	3761642	3368430	886793
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4340000	3920000	3610000	3480000	3520000	3550000	2940000	3000000	2650000	2720000	2850000	2605190	2736000	2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	2908916	3761642	3368430	884222
Hg	1A1a												293200	347439	454169	294883	1514673	1522433	1432897	1924597	1914936	2034061
Hg	1A1c												200	120994		21927	31537	338498	338603	342707	8390	116685
Hg	1A2b																9687	167	129	397	683278	16621
Hg	1A2fi												1728240	1372391	597676	1280965	1121378	1228020	1420095	1186314	1142077	218788
Hg	1A4ai												33300	234295	180363	43662	175040	96152	45260	33023	25874	33723
Hg	2C1																		57473	51541	37975	326639
Hg	6Cb												672500	250564	75558	27140	22119	66434	11170	17496	6771	7935
Hg	GRIDTOTAL														1788452	2091740	3765076	3847543	3922234	4114623	4295311	3480370
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	7520000	7420000	7280000	7460000	7170000	7400000	5860000	5540000	5160000	3660000	3840000	3267360	2756000	1788452	2091740	3765076	3847543	3922234	4114623	4295311	3480370

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A1a												26610	2739	2792	3753	5393	3053	3	3	7770	5325
DIOX	2C2																		18632	19415	0	316
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	1252000	1220000	1220000	1140000	1135000	1135000	921500	830200	766700	643200	743800	620414	177313	113968	187333	178569	174779	168620	150261	140537	129092
HCB	1A2b																1187191	507084	506907	507171	82039	0
HCB	GRIDTOTAL														72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431	3740531	2667792	2677687
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL													4057000	72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431	3740531	2667792	2688829
HCB	SNAPTOTAL														72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431