Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CZ

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NMVOC	1A3e												1995	2065	7244	7646	817	2	2
CO	1A3e												7745	8054	27556	29837	3374	90	68

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
PM2.5	1A3e				1394	1283	188	2	1
PM10	1A1a		3565	3	4222	4188	3870	3294	3494
PM10	1A2fi		3529	7	3016	3969	1320	1617	1265
PM10	1A3bi		5671	6	6130	5922	4141	679	930
PM10	1A4ai		2052	1	529	469	550	298	268
PM10	1A4bi		16459	20	25840	24244	12900	12421	11977
PM10	1A4cii		3921	4	3645	3150	1676	1384	1370
PM10	2A7d		3419	4	1407	505	3610	1976	2078
PM10	2C5e		1525	1	3116	1668	730	1278	920
PM10	2G		3412	0	173		410	198	238
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL		43105	51	51399	46988	34346	34857	34619
TSP	1A1a		3968	4	4571	4577	4600	4205	4342
TSP	1A2fi		4656	5	3616	4890	1760	2137	1793
TSP	1A3bi		20741	22	22050	23439	23121	679	930
TSP	1A4ai		3452	2	856	771	870	525	440
TSP	1A4bi		22904	29	31076	29010	16450	15626	15067
TSP	1A4cii		3921	4	3645	3150	1676	1384	1370
TSP	2A7d		4629	5	2752	3507	5820	3856	4077
TSP	2C5e		2022	2	4895	2499	860	1989	1562
TSP	2G		5463	1	502		690	368	327
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	57182	71202	76	77828	75244	64350	67856	66667

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A1a												1471700	1625544	1662865	845830	10420084	7329166	6571409
Pb	1A2b																3489975	2107584	2107180
Pb	1A2fi												28772400	24556832	22994585	24407800	3746671	3309620	3433820
Pb	1A3ai(i)												2000000	1700000	42900	25350			15000
Pb	1A3aii(i)												2000000	1700000		390			5000
Pb	1A3bi												10000000	9312000	4917900	2677200	999100	1000000	1010000
Pb	2C5e													6133192	7088414	6923005	5967208	6656717	2050000
Pb	6Cb												3213000	1597131	360429	96425	40938	55425	21000
Cd	1A1a												360500	471955	400639	482946	1169218	1166337	5140077
Cd	1A2fi												1667060	680001	537923	496000	74936	128534	139122
Cd	1A4ai												192500	159653	16345	6001	62100	5533	22546
Cd	2C5e													1132299	1167212	1242812	1097532	1222252
Cd	GRIDTOTAL														2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	7029701
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4340000	3920000	3610000	3480000	3520000	3550000	2940000	3000000	2650000	2720000	2850000	2605190	2736000	2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	7029791
Cd	SNAPTOTAL														2239692	2368759	3111988	3177622	7029791
Hg	1A1a												293200	347439	454169	294883	1514673	1522433	1432897
Hg	1A1c												200	120994		21927	31537	338498	338603
Hg	1A2c																317957	124819	150254
Hg	1A2fi												1728240	1372391	597676	1280965	1121378	1228020	1420095
Hg	1A4ai												33300	234295	180363	43662	175040	96152	45260
Hg	6Cb												672500	250564	75558	27140	22119	66434	11170

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
HCB	GRIDTOTAL														72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL													4057000	72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431
HCB	SNAPTOTAL														72278	4262389	4667143	3685187	3870431