Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2010
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2010
PMs:	2000 – 2010

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
NOx	1A1a	3394	3520	4049	4363	4562	4153	4412	4666	5093	5377	5656	5613	5846	6283	6545	6925	7143	7478	6318	7424	6316
NOx	1A2fi	2093	1979	2136	2325	2430	2330	2502	2414	2288	2296	2365	2317	2391	2358	2534	2491	2597	2558	2583	2112	1764
NMVOC	1A1b	410	490	460	500	570	530	490	670	690	750	690	730	680	730	250
NMVOC	1A3bv	1657	1486	1424	1346	1287	1185	1093	1024	915	833	742	708	667	658	599	542	486	483	424	339	297
SOx	1A3	4021	4321	5218	5309	6037	5753	6055	6375	6754	7022	7217	7044	6841	6520	2342	66	66	71	73	14	14
SOx	1A3bi	686	719	825	854	975	943	1046	1185	1286	1373	1431	1469	1451	1358	547	36	38	41	44	9	9
SOx	1A3bii	1767	1986	2519	2624	3073	2983	3114	3243	3479	3639	3735	3614	3492	3236	1103	18	16	16	15	3	3
SOx	1A3biii	1548	1597	1855	1813	1970	1808	1877	1930	1974	1996	2038	1949	1888	1918	689	11	11	12	13	2	2
NH3	4B1b	291	290	292	325	337	359	392	338	294	275	280	267	294	294	315	304	296	287	295	286	274
CO	1A1a	342	354	408	439	459	418	444	470	513	541	569	565	588	632	659	697	719	743	249	460	448
CO	1A2fi	2692	2542	2735	2990	3114	2988	3206	3086	2920	2938	3022	2958	3059	3028	3282	3264	3443	3442	3379	2749	2283
CO	1A3ai(i)	487	413	500	516	547	576	566	594	613	646	690	759	749	759	784	797	798	807	944	932	946

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
PM2.5	2A6	197	128	105	67	40	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	2A6	846	551	450	285	171	1	1	1	1	2	2
TSP	2A6	3664	2386	1951	1236	742	6	5	5	5	8	8

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Pb	1A1a	104079	107947	126183	134480	140282	128931	136443	144187	158418	168926	177032	172854	179582	193646	202334	215447	200464	207037	216454	214529	169678
Pb	1A2fi	148850	141468	150471	163543	169301	163277	173796	167766	159492	160726	165309	161149	166841	166144	179440	175180	181908	179987	182345	147810	123040
Pb	1A3	24530951	24276412	25585991	25475750	25774965	25878061	25233662	24463112	23223198	22078960	20024164	19184378	17660581	16681209	6442044	1748161	1851884	2012647	2125220	2170787	2210527
Pb	1A3bi	19146092	18478305	19202982	19045757	19176734	19077368	18430321	17791066	16737515	15780753	14159041	13687593	12873533	12044798	4581030	1101975	1213843	1293049	1355966	1344989	1324767
Pb	1A3bii	3637155	3973373	4333572	4312844	4362607	4388527	4288830	4124375	3895984	3684905	3318380	2975459	2482781	2308328	782060	186976	166257	196310	191794	198105	219951
Pb	1A3biv	1579282	1648129	1846367	1908655	2008537	2181666	2272755	2293890	2322715	2333264	2242434	2215698	2015554	2023224	818118	216827	226976	252713	295479	351533	381762
Pb	FUTOTAL	24897279	24636553	25993528	25908204	26223088	26303336	25677031	24905038	23681268	22551041	20501627	19654809	18146138	17169594	6945501	2261718	2354479	2504587	2627131	2628884	2587691
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	24897279	24636553	25993528	25908204	26223088	26303336	25677031	24905038	23681268	22551041	20501627	19654809	18146138	17169594	6945501	2261718	2354479	2504587	2627131	2628884	2587691
Cd	1A1a	27151	28160	32917	35082	36595	33634	35594	37614	41327	44068	46182	45092	46847	50516	52783	56204	52295	54010	56466	58146	48028
Cd	1A2fi	10486	9901	10722	11674	12208	11717	12604	12136	11507	11527	11898	11612	11951	11775	12664	12393	12989	12827	12851	10578	8753
Cd	FUTOTAL	49135	49733	57376	60714	63818	59784	63032	64778	68763	71948	75036	73619	76119	79156	81832	85513	82137	82908	85627	84191	71389
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	49135	49733	57376	60714	63818	59784	63032	64778	68763	71948	75036	73619	76119	79156	81832	85513	82137	82908	85627	84191	71389
Hg	1A1a	6788	7040	8229	8770	9149	8409	8898	9403	10332	11017	11546	11273	11712	12629	13196	14051	13074	13502	14117	14341	11669
Hg	1A2fi	137519	129551	141180	153817	161401	154662	166969	160632	152161	152125	157207	153486	157654	154756	166194	162188	169847	166921	168101	139173	114864
Hg	FUTOTAL	148470	140778	153808	167104	175092	167657	180463	174615	167196	167891	173380	169439	174100	168916	179901	176705	183351	180807	182588	153871	126857
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	148470	140778	153808	167104	175092	167657	180463	174615	167196	167891	173380	169439	174100	168916	179901	176705	183351	180807	182588	153871	126857

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
DIOX	1A2fi	79	75	80	87	89	86	92	88	84	85	87	85	88	88	95	101	114	122	103	83	70
DIOX	6Ca	1290	1325	1360	1390	1418	1442	1464	1483	1500	1517	1532	1550	1571	375
DIOX	6Cd	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	51	52	52	53	54	54	56	57	58	59	60	54	47	37
HCB	1A2fi	13735	12939	14102	15365	16124	15450	16681	16048	15201	15197	15705	15333	15749	15458	16600	16351	17303	17183	16908	13987	11559
HCB	6Ca	42986	44157	45336	46339	47254	48052	48785	49436	50000	50556	51069	51655	52358	12500