Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CY

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A1a33943520404943634562415344124666509353775656561358466283654569257143747863187424
NOx1A2fi20931979213623252430233025022414228822962364230723782359253124852597255825832142
NMVOC1A1b410490460500570530490670690750690730680730250     
NMVOC1A3bv16571486142413461287118510931024915833742708667658599542486483424340
NMVOC3A198797299510511127117212791227129413421344132019631916217420682364239317491405
SOx1A1a2161522419258482781129067264982813529750325073432832797298283033532899314003407327519255142052116081
SOx1A3bii1767198625192624307329833114324334793639373536143492323611031816161515
SOx1A3biii154815971855181319701808187719301974199620381949188819186891111121313
NH34B1b291290292325337359392338294275280267294294315304296287295286
NH34B4196196192189224238266308332337376391396406427383366363370249
CO1A1a342354408439459418444470513541569565588632659697719743249460
CO1A2fi26922542273529903114298832063086292029383021293830523031327232483443344233792769
CO1A3ai(i)5204425355525856166056356566917388128018118388538538631010999
CO4F203216382071207617951613145898812531146910890837732882552419280147221

PM (Unit = Mg)
  2000200120022003200420052006200720082009
PM2.52A6198129106674111111
PM102A684655145128617332222
TSP2A6366423861951123674265554

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A2fi148850141468150471163543169301163277173796167766159492160726165309161149166841166144179440175180181908179987182345152637
Pb1A32453095124276412255859912547575025774965258780612523366224463112232231982207896020024164191843781766058116681209644204417481611851884201264721252202222780
Pb1A3bi1914609218478305192029821904575719176734190773681843032117791066167375151578075314159041136875931287353312044798458103011019751213843129304913559661377600
Pb1A3bii36371553973373433357243128444362607438852742888304124375389598436849053318380297545924827812308328782060186976166257196310191794206573
Pb1A3biv15792821648129184636719086552008537218166622727552293890232271523332642242434221569820155542023224818118216827226976252713295479360062
PbFUTOTAL2490022724639723259973512591209026227505263075352568143924909664236861502255609920516005196650061814838317163301693585822360072331221248438426060822686451
PbNATIONALTOTAL2490022724639723259973512591209026227505263075352568143924909664236861502255609920516005196650061814838317163301693585822360072331221248438426060822686451
Cd1A2fi104869901107221167412208117171260412136115071152711898116121195111775126641239312989128271285110676
Cd4F16901363172317271494134212138221042953757740696609734459348233122184
Hg1A2fi137519129551141180153817161401154662166969160632152161152125157207153486157654154756166194162188169847166921168101139206
HgFUTOTAL148469140777153807167103175091167656180462174613167195167889173423169471174111168886179880176650183306180780182547153909
HgNATIONALTOTAL148469140777153807167103175091167656180462174613167195167889173423169471174111168886179880176650183306180780182547153909

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX6Ca1290132513601390141814421464148315001517153215501571375      
DIOX6Cd45464748495051515252535454565758596054105
HCB1A2fi1373512939141021536516124154501668116048152011519715705153331574915458166001635117303171831690814019
HCB6Ca4298644157453364633947254480524878549436500005055651069516555235812500