Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NMVOC	1A3	80629	73678	65130	57996	53537	49937	46119	42750	39698	37305	34917	32520	30044	27628	25545	23757	21502	20276	18820	17306	16067	15182	14312
CO	1A3	518782	474091	420003	373787	348442	327119	304278	285490	268369	255228	243179	230341	216457	203392	190327	179359	164323	155211	145342	134813	125556	118994	112526
CO	1A3bi	408693	367887	316784	279345	258214	239403	221056	205475	192075	181494	172583	163657	153669	144267	135094	127760	115909	109610	101924	94379	87290	82249	77537

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	29450568	25979649	23828416	21529908	19256629	17417637	15641049	13932357	12394536	10819943	9119854	6859589	4361647	1641384	1670244	1708927	1840047	1765304	1756039	1705658	1721174	1675696	1723041
Pb	1A3	228233163	201269271	166556796	127626014	107405640	81801076	61721540	48703053	32200336	18910305	5208909	5039200	4841352	4709190	4632668	4392169	4259226	4101806	4004982	3943213	3770919	3772213	3590462
Pb	1A3aii(i)	2026909	1876602	1890173	1859547	1807491	1806241	1745778	1674299	1610953	1576751	1491561	1348956	1191177	1146158	1153412	997852	965715	900558	878065	882838	809954	889543	791544
Pb	1A3bi	211744248	187055706	154203594	118166172	99380647	75316773	56462660	44243162	28712502	16179782	3282944	3266095	3236729	3162222	3085832	3004738	2907562	2813863	2749650	2689478	2603286	2520293	2445926
Pb	1A4ai	1379995	1492439	1470052	1421891	1297860	1314578	1420136	1350687	1396826	1329510	1258345	1306419	1225142	1283439	1246270	1245665	1180381	1032486	1098358	1049956	1121150	920845	977335
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	47555896	2500294	2474326	2218944	2039223	2069891	2219125	2097588	2267863	2292194	2379429	1694416	2205732	2394265	2264430
Pb	6A	17200000	20000000	20000000	18196000	10944000	9721178	8498355	8285520	8222685	5461820	3474330	2203900	933470	610900	144165	85278	26390	7475	5930
Cd	1A1a	1753204	1550077	1424047	1282847	1147036	1038316	934515	832458	744133	649362	546964	413332	265324	104802	106492	109785	117501	112075	111185	108053	110336	105929	109491
Cd	1A4bi	320278	337888	335386	316990	298509	318723	326107	304234	313637	304208	278706	293493	281317	296391	294427	297665	285384	249240	264683	257647	275573	217677	237158
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	352195	25796	25643	23130	21435	21767	23350	22069	23864	24115	25031	17815	23201	25178	23831
Hg	1A1a	3908621	3454398	3174728	2876566	2580065	2342201	2112795	1894848	1698984	1501960	1288760	1000090	679412	325766	325517	327138	344891	321675	309961	291587	286045	266920	263342
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	880273	312205	333972	328369	337562	342877	367946	347739	376063	379968	394387	280586	365514	396608	375571
Hg	6Cb	225150	194490	165720	138840	113850	110440	106400	95360	82160	63750	45010	28060	7600	8650	9700	9485	9271	9311	9351	9392	9432	9473	9513
Hg	FUTOTAL	6586120	6057415	5724192	5329381	4861088	4001880	3699140	3418546	3214175	2346368	2053231	1681471	1286643	935851	961416	946184	988875	967140	968683	823517	904321	911935	877618
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	6586120	6057415	5724192	5329381	4861088	4001880	3699140	3418546	3214175	2346368	2053231	1681471	1286643	935851	961416	946184	988875	967140	968683	823517	904321	911935	877618
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6586120	6057415	5724192	5329381	4861088	4001880	3699140	3418546	3214175	2346368	2053231	1681471	1286643	935851	961416	946184	988875	967140	968683	823517	904321	911935	877618