Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH

Submission year: 2012

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2010

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2010

PMs:

2000 – 2010

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
NMVOC3A12464024175234842256721422200521845416630145801409113598131001156396077230728173317380713268846637
NMVOC4D2a397039703970397039703970397039703970397039703970397039703970397039703970397039703970
SOx1A1a3658394442992215189318511980134225161146679706564433383391398273278281297
SOx1A2d3710294523281860160215581515147516541273980109411041175132496496744240325837

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Pb1A3aii(i)202690918766021890173185954718074911806241174577816742991610953157675114915611348956119117711461581153412997852965715900558878065882838809954
Pb1A3bi21424487118864495315507010211850973999590487764827385802519545272816292967751643591933258073296376327431332154593145526307506629767922903766283638227758882709745
Pb1A4bi9561991016596985638938744878467930726941216868985887352859328785066827783790547833888844503858460830521730702782912764644817106
Pb2C1598576006240038067238586689437466643525638692016398870494262827547555896250029424743262218944203922320698912219125209758822678632292194237942916944162204889
Cd1A1a180952416399201538658131177611722761068023972647845448803845663318541313414838266863107336107210109165117700107027106209103296105746
Cd1A2d106047954008723474356676086334460494645666403561106516705351550551485544640045082480072060220380163732241
Cd2C1443304462153497991510634492048286533295395315699352195257962564323130214352176723350220692386424115250311781523197
Hg1A1a391268034608613183292287813625820622344843211641118958071704940150299512881691000211679719326058325923327023345018322419312205294579289222
Hg2C111080001155162124475912764031229924716104738294789049880273312205333972328369337562342877367946347739376063379968394387280586365514
Hg6Cb2251501944901657201388401138501104401064009536082160637504501028060760084109161869582418151805079397817
Hg6Cd637726359264496661036735469646696077041868660680376723265095620726054755354578035449452707508854358236163
HgFUTOTAL67075206178159584866954428344983350412949038356283556434336251624926822188675183041414279301086006111288910997781140748110117811156049675231054233
HgGRIDTOTAL67075206178159584866954428344983350412949038356283556434336251624926822188675183041414279301086006111288910997781140748110117811156049675231054233
HgNATIONALTOTAL67075206178159584866954428344983350412949038356283556434336251624926822188675183041414279301086006111288910997781140748110117811156049675231054233