Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2009

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2009

PMs:

2000 – 2009

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
NOx1A2fi192181840317537170531768716905161011423913936142151426113790131131261812764126701225111974119976820
NOx1A3bi5912853397455173977036980347983248529995278672594623654221852065419574185081726816231152341438720443
NOx4B1a29612930287828362790274327122617258324822427241423652343233023752398240824511241
NMVOC1A39979792372838096960561679532864856345539415173950935826318582864926460240902190820141190361794420437
NMVOC1A3bi50240449963772932264288372583422919204861851716941153491386412231108969672855176626865616212505
NMVOC1A3biv93848515767368776126601859295797543053175110505450104848456242213948366634152401
NMVOC1A3bv2136519125164671439812734112719825861575776739598254154909453342243978377436053465880
NMVOC2D246144382433243794135416645784493435743164612414245924275446246394828501950252985
NMVOC3A1246402417523484225672142220052184541663014580140911359813100115639607723072817331738071326884
NMVOCGRIDTOTAL29423927534225312523114521201619790518610217251215901814883914085613255612294511443510526410084697748936659191391273
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL29423927534225312523114521201619790518610217251215901814883914085613255612294511443510526410084697748936659191391273
NMVOCNECDTOTAL294239275342253125231145212016197905186102172512159018148839140856132556122945114435105264100846977489366591913 
NMVOCSNAPTOTAL294239275342253125231145212016197905186102172512159018148839140856132556122945114435105264100846977489366591913 
NMVOCUNFCCCTOTAL39973238163836187033452331380129671428489927310125854624880024008623058922057821223720262019797219470019081218913793186
SOx1A2d37252955233018601602155815151475165412739801094110411751324966970788735288
NH31A36327638629311028111911931244129213351386140113981388136213251286124612142948
NH31A3bi603730823887979106711371183122512661315133113291320129512611223118411542870
CO1A2fi2307422907228042286223189231692317521706216652174322124211552016619209187961804617581174141701111750
CO1A3bii622605718853279488134594840461370133444232160303082843125755228122094719194173581585614446131468962
CO4F72807280728072807280728072807280728072807280728072807280728072807280728072807814

PM (Unit = Mg)
  2000200120022003200420052006200720082009
PM101A5b4623184440383838373535
TSP1A5b6131586055525353514949
TSP2G111678202522597912

HM (Unit = g)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Pb1A3bii181754561516375512726817979637881364045695774418955632704572111027114967322467021221420097418916917896816916716005515160514422165771
Pb1A4bi957586997176977475932768891430932572942640870396887153858551785715827596791639834045845593859368828187727271776018763249
Pb2C159857600624003806723858668943746664352563869201639887049426282754755589625002942474326221894420392232069891221912520979512267928229217123797031694416
Cd1A1a18095391639942153866413117761172275106802597264984544980384665473854101640712525914997890100363102922111593106645107784103159
Cd1A2d10607895419872377435667608633446049464566640356110651670535155055148554464064511648019405894058916373
Cd2C14433044621534979915106344920482865332953953156993521952579625643231302143521767233502207023864241152503217815
Hg1A1a39126953460938318330828781292582048234484421164141895810170494315018861287905999211678696324818324997326076344140322108316818293922
Hg2C111080001155162124475912764031229924716104738294789049880273312205333972328369337562342877367946347739376063379968394387280586

POP (Unit = mg)
  19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
DIOX1A2fi1891931982012082122282102112142242302372452582672752953321126
DIOX1A31415144614281400143514681491150915351566160016171625161716051586156715471526231
DIOX1A3bi1265129512741246127913151338135313741402143314521461145414411424140513841363139