Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CH

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2007
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2007
PMs:	2000 – 2007

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
NMVOC	2A6	4895	4524	4166	3820	3488	3168	3191	3214	3236	3093	2740	2284	2226	2252	2226	2199	3402	4080
SOx	1A1a	3660	3940	4294	2208	1885	1842	1967	1332	2507	1001	657	533	387	229	228	245	263	233

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Pb	1A3bii	18175456	15163755	12726817	9796378	8136404	5695774	4189556	3270457	2111027	1149673	224670	212214	200974	189169	178968	169167	160055	151605
Pb	1A4bi	950778	1008911	976453	930989	870394	923279	934002	862624	881810	855958	785539	830584	796169	840259	852977	863272	836281	738599
Pb	2C1	59857600	62400380	67238586	68943746	66435256	38692016	39887049	42628275	47555896	2500294	2474326	2218944	2039223	2069891	2217678	2096710	2266897	2291068
Cd	1A1a	1809391	1639777	1538484	1311579	1172061	1067794	972333	845218	803632	654534	540745	406836	258684	97464	99553	102509	111135	105939
Cd	2C1	443304	462153	497991	510634	492048	286533	295395	315699	352195	25796	25643	23130	21435	21767	23344	22065	23860	24110
Hg	1A1a	3912173	3460350	3182714	2877429	2581301	2344011	2115276	1894974	1704195	1501177	1286946	998180	677562	323581	323685	324765	342758	320120
Hg	2C1	1108000	1155162	1244759	1276403	1229924	716104	738294	789049	880273	312205	333972	328369	337562	342877	367946	347739	376063	379968