Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA

Submission year: 2011

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants:	1990 – 2009
HMs and POPs:	1990 – 2009
PMs:	2000 – 2009

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
NMVOC	1A1c	27980	28222	28856	29772	30354	31472	33220	33147	34343	33025	33688	33893	34447	34576	34032	31316	30809	26868	25329	62810
NMVOC	1A4bi	146508	144478	137380	144268	145434	141166	139332	109647	109517	138654	138619	145107	161668	152919	151197	157785	158698	157129	155356	153591
NMVOC	1B2aiv	87960	89290	88902	64139	60814	60734	58682	58848	58382	58268	48947	45508	42068	38629	35190	26921	28488	32559	31303	40471
NMVOC	1B2av	94490	94956	94978	95001	95023	94585	94146	88941	83735	78529	73323	68117	62912	57706	52500	47294	47181	50555	71713	51128
NMVOC	2G	49504	55465	54354	54486	56147	50724	54652	54245	54250	54298	57286	82316	67759	67151	60584	60924	55045	52057	48533	42554
NMVOC	4B1b	189418	191962	198230	199878	206175	218447	226102	225031	222023	217530	226753	168264	231324	233249	233249	255876	247804	247804	266390	224876
SOx	1A1c	206086	195011	205934	208399	227712	225634	238965	223375	205781	214321	204802	207240	202809	226046	207975	193540	179303	160802	155773	265464
SOx	1B1b	155262	145107	152029	153977	165549	167142	163441	156078	149549	155610	160412	161913	158608	175630	161375	149474	137648	132105	120448	13744
NH3	4B1b	128816	131892	137425	139752	145064	154535	161821	162060	160940	158722	159171	163462	163237	165839	178080	181558	175262	220449	164273	163648
NH3	4B8	51199	51974	53992	53399	53859	57688	58802	60062	64165	65365	66172	69588	73050	72976	73322	74676	74645	71766	63958	59072
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	423259	423621	428139	426774	434361	445048	462763	472657	469447	476044	479553	487637	487708	487841	501188	500581	498880	537889	473851	462808
NH3	UNFCCCTOTAL	423259	423621	428139	426774	434361	445048	462763	472657	469447	476044	479553	487637	487708	487841	501188	500581	498880	537889	473851	462808
CO	1A4bi	665017	655302	623656	654600	660668	642158	634339	497111	495847	629467	632204	654604	729089	691217	686929	717143	727019	720309	712184	704069
CO	7A	861478	490698	302961	477523	450108	470801	188941	253225	144367	144296	116332	216110	78207	94535	31564	7656	23140	1271	13606	13564

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	71472416	54230189	48836882	48628510	48070821	53806050	50362477	48069081	50330286	46501725	46392101	45757415	45058347	41313309	38212527	38281259	38585769	38357426	38129100	37900790
Pb	2C1	50894510	50894510	50894510	50894510	50894510	45806691	50894510	44226605	42969526	7197748	3327341	8288602	8064953	17646676	15669434	11300861	5477690	6123881	5604161	3938759
Pb	2C5c	34064463	32574052	34563127	38388754	39176007	19445725	21652663	21225319	19845908	17089336	18230877	15093376	14764272	11374899	9333310	7546966	8625903	2808606	7558090	4646691
Cd	1A2fi	2458603	4611116	6786180	516776	2338889	4540400	6696627	422869	329218	429254	383309	298277	75603	178356	312677	535800	441504	409878	71052	59889
Cd	1A4bi	1154700	1134270	1171680	1199280	1166080	1065240	1197120	1134840	983940	1014170	1026510	1031650	122040	594920	594920	569920	468625	504335	494770	466419
Cd	2C5a	5823409	5046709	5147428	6188866	5326472	1286524	1347071	3052221	3135604	2707457	2534740	4851092	2663882	2011493	2160341	2320553	2776327	1422489	1460707	1674935
Cd	2C5e	67153799	58197137	59358595	71368142	61423281	14835804	15534020	35197293	36158841	31221579	29229862	55941342	30719086	23195937	24912399	26759918	32015775	22423636	16871240	14472882
Cd	6Cc	6817123	6155292	5492622	4830412	4168142	3505881	2843451	2181151	1518801	856441	195090	170290	66572	47453	46339	55700	51899	59852	80689	42778
Hg	2A1	291756	223893	207677	213239	245396	249668	279337	277403	279107	294202	276636	317444	263139	352443	260208	146752	348544	265004	242304	231796
Hg	2C1	337660	483580	634778	789509	746089	569717	656332	630485	645179	266851	231784	616005	320926	431359	412410	515866	460784	542526	893249	652290
Hg	2C5b	1523954	1514869	1503140	606489	297401	252631	305754	153101	145262	112181	115448	109691	102066	76556	111743	99321	74719		58927	50412
Hg	2C5e	23226339	23087870	22909112	9243433	4532690	3850359	4659985	2333439	2213971	1709789	1759534	1671828	1555599	1166819	1703094	1513786	1138824	1488147	988483	715611
Hg	2C5f	250942	254499	254764	255117	255458	255742	183409	91171	45169	45415	45245	45523	45245	45245	45989	45989			378506	378506
Hg	2F	471476	509509	504732	507647	518379	538347	493356	537877	520041	639582	649165	429691	169373	205640	173721	126015	112361		99070	99070
Hg	6A													44374	24982	45256	13658	85263	124399	425803	425803
Hg	6Cb	15670	15670	15670	15670	15670	12060	12060	12060	12060	12060	12060	12060	259330	201130	209730	168080	150422	394260	534038	155924
Hg	6Cc	2924344	2929970	2941944	2680987	2711953	2825248	2740441	2665372	2591582	1754996	1489170	1611015	448601	462787	407955	547896	242971	941464	582728	580410
Hg	7A	148215	150400	150542	150757	150985	151205	108727	54834	27848	28313	28239	27812	30060	27197	27537	27409	439	627735	238944	238674

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
DIOX	1A1a	3000	5021	5220	5344	5091	5199	5120	5000	5000	5000	5198	5748	16745	9366	7423	5630	3790	3371	2714	2717
DIOX	1A2b	2513	2405	2564	2337	2381	2514	2329	2513	2513	2513	2570	2303	4869	2358	3988	2753	1130	1752	1177	5
DIOX	1A2d	4563	4669	4785	4793	4665	4479	4773	4563	4078	3593	5681	3938	2259	12546	2856	1566	1611	1704	772	640
DIOX	1A2fi	499	495	487	520	500	490	515	531	529	526	529	478	268	755	5339	1076	619	647	210	571
DIOX	2D1	6792	6920	7110	7131	6953	6626	7093	6792	6027	5262	8703	5841	2333	18642	4129	2129	2290	2633	1107	1658
DIOX	2G	4373	5608	4855	5807	5556	5188	5678	5385	5327	5225	5397	5397	981	8743	9542	7772	4229	1228	1063	168
DIOX	6Ce	16926	17099	17273	17438	17596	17745	17895	18042	18159	18281	18409	18556	18409	31621	37211	29516	27926	19295	19295	19295
HCB	11B	23223610	44453080	22165710	49152160	140513750	172636680	49402200	16070320	102406110	39388840	52929350	15225460	69679850	17264040	83310310	27943410
HCB	1A2a	94329	96925	104403	95598	95237	98432	95794	98651	95792	97354	75545	96039	109041	115881	74560	108556	114837	140425	123260	413653
HCB	1A2b	2025218	1891951	2017493	1838611	1873631	1977819	1832046	1977135	1857021	1967068	1965774	7875447	14155017	4341864	2798710	3274514	2474293	868055	2001746	8347
HCB	2C1	1054881	1083905	1167537	1069072	1065033	1100758	1071256	1103209	1071238	1088706	844815	1074001	1219399	1295899	833800	1213984	1284223	1689437	1378413	448485
HCB	2C5a	389758	364110	388271	353845	360585	380636	352581	380504	357388	378567	378318	1515648	2724166	835602	538618	630188	476183	183643	385241	102446
HCB	2C5e	112775	105354	112345	102384	104334	110136	102019	110098	103409	109537	109465	438549	788231	241779	155848	182343	137782	605803	111468	271146