Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: CA

Submission year: 2009

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries.  Only data in NFR02 or NFR08 reporting format were analyzed, and data for which at least three years were reported. In case of a mixture of the reporting formats across the timeseries (e.g. only 2007 was reported in NFR08 and the rest of the time series is available only in NFR02) we converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR08 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology:
Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

 

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):

Main pollutants:

1990 – 2007

HMs and POPs:

1990 – 2007

PMs:

2000 – 2007

 

Color Key

 

 Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

 Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

 Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
NOxNATIONALTOTAL239000024340002420000236600024510002455000237100024260002440000241800024630002478000247300024930002491000237900023120002214573
NOxSNAPTOTAL238997124335942419677236644924510902454554237082624258992440289241849124629042477985247333624926632491239  2214573
NMVOC1A4bi347000145000144000137000140000139000137000138000138000138000150000145000162000150000153000154610157720158896
NMVOC1B2ai557000567000591000590000603000625000657000657000677000651000680000709000669000736000750000  41
NMVOC1B2av               9764033052989
NMVOC2G11200011100011000011100011200011300011100011200011200011200012300015300014100015000015300012296011212051977
NMVOC3A3148000153000147000121000119000127000111000119000116000113000102000950009400010700010900066390126310126306
SOx2C5e14680001799000132200085600080800097100084400085800087900084500082900086900083600072100077800074340081150359168
NH34B1a               437804050883
NH34B1b               113930110175262
NH34B8               11338011071766
NH34B9d               645306022649
NH34G     479000497000507000498000515000523000532000503000552000562000161240498930 
CO1A2d3100036000350006500066000610006200062000620006400059000590005600049000500003380027550350217
CO1A2fi59500056200062500092700081900085400086000085900080700084300064100064800059000065800066900033796039915062240
CO1A3biii82400067000057300052700047400036700032800030400028700022200023800024200022200020500020000019166018141053464
CO1A4bi1041000650000645000619000637000632000623000626000626000623000676000655000729000679000690000703560716570728350
CO2C5e36000032000031300033900031100032600031200033000032800031600025400027500040300033300034000047120040865091

HM (Unit = g)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
Pb1A2b88623000084745000089920000099873000010192100005059000005633200005522000005163200004446000004743000003926700003841100002858900002312900001963400002244200002491590
Pb2B5a866000078100006170000452000020800006000018000019000018000019000016000025000044000013000013000043300000047000055240
Pb2C5e664400006692000068620000692100006939000064380000705200006395000063190000254300002167000027290000267000002483000017920000134100006280000143265700
Pb2G204000020900002220000231000024200002140000370000022000001950000139000099000023800002020000243000016800001150000167000011148870
Pb7A            30000   697300001660
Cd1A2b7829000067850000692000008320000071610000173000001811000041030000421600003640000034080000652200003581000027030000290300003120000037330000290210
Cd1A2fi285000050000007150000930000275000051300007150000800000710000990000970000890000520000180000160000870000 541000
Cd1A3dii2210000221000022100002210000221000022100002210000221000022100002210000221000022100005000050000500001000006000063170
Cd1A4bi11500001130000117000012000001170000107000012000001130000980000101000010300001030000120000510000590000570000470000505270
Cd1B2ai120000001300000014000000150000001500000016000000160000001700000018000000180000001900000019000000400000002100000012000000   
Cd2B5a70000700007000070000800007000080000900008000080000700008000020000100001000056000000700001870
Cd2C5e65000063000068000067000062000069000073000074000050000050000051000052000058000065000078000058000030000021894110
Cd6Cb70200006330000565000049700004290000361000029200002240000156000088000020000017000070000300003000060000400002830
Cd7A200002000020000200002000020000200002000020000200002000020000800004000050000 16400004010
Hg1A2b26080000259300002573000010380000509000043200005230000262000024900001920000198000018800001750000131000019100001700000127000014390
Hg1A2fi690000760000740000750000770000800000730000800000770000950000960000640000300000290000220000250000 100000
Hg2A1330000250000240000240000280000280000320000310000320000330000310000360000300000390000270000170000390000256730
Hg2B5a4100001500001500001300008000080000900008000080000800008000070000500006000050000710000009000020610
Hg2C5e4400005800007000008500008000006300007200007000007100003100002900006800003800005100004900005600005100001163640
Hg6Cb304000030500003070000281000028400002960000288000028000002730000190000016400001760000850000620000570000890000770000394250
Hg7A51000051000050000050000049000049000037000022000015000014000014000014000070000100000100000 540000150

POP (Unit = mg)
  199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
DIOX1A1a3000502052205340509052005120500050005000520057501674065709320563037903174
DIOX1A2b3380323034503140320033803130338033803380346031006550359053903700152027
DIOX1A2fi75209030822091608800857090608620856084607840836077009440165001010064501521
DIOX2C5e39000400004200040000390004000040000410003200023000200009000140001600090004000 166
DIOX6Cb34479019126019804020157019400019766019404019091014792010495092430910907490075070491404320042160129
DIOX7A2020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202010201020101967017890240
HCB2B5a6700006700007100007000006900007200007000006900007000006900003200007000005900001500003800003820000009000019030
HCB2D11000002000002000002000002000001000002000001000002000002000002000002000002000002500000300000300000330000290390
HCB6Cb687000005080000052700000537000005150000052500000514000005040000012700000125000001080000013300000320000032000001500000120000018400007610
HCB7A130000001100000012000000120000001200000012000000110000001200000012000000120000002100000019000000340000001700000017000000143000009180000